In May, the NEV market retailed 804,000 vehicles, up 38.5% year on year and 18.7% month on month.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to data released by the Passenger Link Branch on June 11, production of new energy passenger vehicles reached 881,000 units in May, an increase of 31.0% year on year and 9.9% month on month. In May, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 897,000 units, up 32.1% year on year and 13.8% month on month. In May, the NEV market retailed 804,000 vehicles, up 38.5% year on year and 18.7% month on month. In May, exports of new energy vehicles were 94,000 units, down 4.0% year on year and 18.8% month on month.
The Passenger Federation Branch said that the continued slump in conventional fuel vehicle consumption is an important factor inhibiting the overall recovery of the car market. Policies such as trade-in reasonably guarantee the replacement demand of fuel vehicle consumers, and are of great significance to the steady development of the automobile market. The country's overall considerations and detailed grasp of the current “promotion of consumption and boosting domestic demand” are becoming increasingly clear and accurate, and the consumption potential of “eliminating renewal” and “trading in renewal” in the market will gradually be unleashed, which is beneficial to the gradual strengthening of the car market over the next few months.
1.5. Review of the national passenger car market
Retail sales: In May, the national passenger car market retailed 1.71 million vehicles, down 1.9% year on year and up 11.4% month on month. Since this year, a total of 8.073 million vehicles have been sold, an increase of 5.7% over the previous year. Among them, 910,000 conventional fuel vehicles were sold in May, down 23% year on year, up 6% month on month; in January-May, 4.82 million conventional fuel vehicles were sold, down 9% year on year.
The national economy was running smoothly in May. Although affected by the wrong number of holidays and a high base for the same period last year, with the implementation of the country's “trade-in” policy, the Beijing Auto Show driving consumer enthusiasm, and the introduction and follow-up of corresponding policies and measures in various regions, and the phased cooling of the new product price war in the car market, the insured repurchase policy further dispelled user concerns. The major product releases of leading companies led to stable product supply expectations. In May, the national new energy passenger car market entered a relatively good stage of development.
The price war in the car market started early at the beginning of this year, and the price reduction of nearly 20% for some popular models was strong. The number of models participating in the price reduction was close to the number of models cut last year. As a result, consumers temporarily waited extremely on prices. Coupled with weak consumer spending expectations, it temporarily curbed the launch of the spring car market; with the introduction of policy implementation rules at the end of April, the purchasing power of savings was released in May, driving the NEV market in May. The trend was better than the passenger car manufacturer team's expectations. On June 1, the preferential tax policy for NEV vehicles excluded entry-level models such as mini electric vehicles under 200 kilometers. Therefore, the licensing factors before the withdrawal of the preferential vehicle purchase tax policy in May also contributed to the continued growth of the NEV market.
In May, retail sales of 980,000 vehicles under its own brands were up 12% year on year and 12% month on month. The domestic retail share of independent brands in the same month was 57.6%, up 7.3 percentage points from the previous year; in 2024, the cumulative share of independent brands was 56%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points over the same period last year. In May, the wholesale market share of independent brands was 64%, an increase of 9.2 percentage points over the same period last year; independent brands gained significant growth in the new energy market and export market. Leading traditional car companies have performed well in transformation and upgrading, and traditional car companies such as BYD, Chery Auto, Geely Auto, and Changan Auto have clearly increased their brand share.
Mainstream joint venture brands retailed 490,000 vehicles in May, down 21% year on year and up 8% month on month. In May, the retail share of German brands was 18.6%, down 2 percentage points from the previous year, and the retail share of Japanese brands was 14.8%, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous year. The retail share of the US brand market reached 6.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4 percentage points.
Retail sales of 240,000 luxury cars in May, down 3% year on year and up 19% month on month. The retail share of luxury brands in May was 14%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous year. Demand in the traditional luxury car market is not very strong.
Exports: Overall automobile exports this year continued the strong growth characteristic of the end of last year. In May, customs counted 569,000 automobile exports, an increase of 30% over the previous year. The export value for the month reached 10.5 billion US dollars, an increase of 17% over the previous year. Achieve strong growth. In January-May of this year, overall automobile exports reached 2.45 million units, up 27% year on year, and automobile exports reached 46.4 billion US dollars, up 20% year on year. Passenger car manufacturer statistics: Passenger car exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) were 378,000 units in May, up 23% year on year and down 9% month on month; from January to May, passenger car exports totaled 1.87 million units, up 34% year on year. New energy vehicles accounted for 24.8% of total exports in May, down 6.8 percentage points from the same period. With the recovery of markets such as South America, exports of independent brands reached 319,000 vehicles in May, up 27% year on year, down 7% month on month; joint ventures and luxury brands exported 58,000 vehicles, up 5% year on year.
Production: Passenger car production in May was 1.97 million units, up 0.3% year on year and 0.5% month on month. Passenger car production in May was 70,000 units higher than the historical high of 1.99 million units in the same period in 2023, a record high. In May, luxury brand production fell 13% year on year and 3% month on month; joint venture brand production fell 24% year on year, up 2% month on month; independent brand production increased 18% year on year, up 1% month on month.
Wholesale: In May, passenger car manufacturers across the country sold 2,031 million vehicles, up 1.2% year on year and 3.9% month on month. Due to steady market recovery and export promotion, manufacturer sales in May were 28,000 vehicles higher than the historical high of 2 million in May 2023, a record high. In May, autonomous car companies wholesale 1.298,000 vehicles, up 18% year on year and 4% month on month. Mainstream joint ventures wholesale 480,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 23% and a month-on-month increase of 3%. The wholesale volume of luxury cars was 260,000 units, down 9% year on year and up 5% month on month.
The overall performance of major passenger car manufacturers was divided in May. BYD, Chery, Geely, and Changan manufacturers were generally strong. There were 32 passenger car manufacturers that sold more than 10,000 vehicles in May (32 in April and 30 in the same period last year), accounting for 95.4% of the overall market share. Among them, 2 had a year-on-year growth rate of more than 100%, 10 had a year-on-year growth rate of more than 10%, and 17 had a negative year-on-year increase. The number of passenger car manufacturers with a wholesale volume of more than 10,000 vehicles increased positively from April to 20.
Inventory: Due to the fact that manufacturers were relatively cautious in production in May, retail sales picked up, resulting in a trend where manufacturers' production was lower than the wholesale volume of 30,000 units, while the domestic wholesale volume of manufacturers was lower than the retail price of 60,000 units. Manufacturers and channels added inventory in March. April-May is generally characterized by inventory removal. April of this year was slightly higher due to “May 1st” inventory preparation, and the manufacturer's inventory was adjusted steadily in May.
New energy: Production of new energy passenger vehicles reached 881,000 units in May, up 31.0% year on year and 9.9% month on month. In May, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 897,000 units, up 32.1% year on year and 13.8% month on month. In May, the NEV market retailed 804,000 vehicles, up 38.5% year on year and 18.7% month on month. In May, the NEV exports were 94,000 units, down 4.0% year on year and 18.8% month on month.
1) Wholesale: In May, the wholesale penetration rate of NEV manufacturers was 44.2%, up 10.2 percentage points from the penetration rate of 34.0% in May 2023. In May, the penetration rate of own-brand NEVs was 59.8%; the penetration rate of NEVs among luxury cars was 32.7%; while the penetration rate of NEVs of mainstream joint venture brands was only 8.0%.
In May, wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles were 531,000 units, up 9.4% year on year, up 14.8% month on month; total sales volume of real plug-in hybrid units in May was 276,000 units, up 84% year on year, up 8% month on month; in May, the wholesale volume of extended range was 91,000 units, up 105% year on year, up 27% month on month. In the new energy wholesale structure in May: 59% pure electric, 31% true plug-in hybrid, 10% incremental. May 2023 is 71% pure electric, 22% true plug-in hybrid, and 6% incremental. In the new energy wholesale structure for the whole of 2023:69% pure electric power, 23% real plug-in hybrid, and 8% additional range. The range extension effectively compensates for the battery life anxiety of pure electric power, and should belong to the pure electric branch.
In May, B-class electric vehicles sold 194,000 units, up 42% year on year and 23% month on month, accounting for 36% of pure electric vehicles. The A00+A0 economy electric vehicle market in the pure electric market declined, with A00 wholesale sales volume of 81,000 units, up 11% year on year, up 5% month on month, accounting for 15% share of pure electric cars, up 0.1 percentage point year on year; A0 grade wholesale sales volume, accounting for 24% of pure electric vehicles, down 10 percentage points year on year; Class A electric vehicles accounted for 21% of pure electric vehicles, up 1 percentage point year on year; sales of various levels of electric vehicles were divided, and the trend of consumption upgrading was very good.
There were 15 passenger car wholesale sales in May (11 last month), BYD Song: 82,174, BYD Qin: 52,072, Model Y: 45,359, Seagull: 35,370, BYD Destroyer 05:32,883, Sylphy: 28,709, Model 3:27,214, BYD yuan: 25,711 units, Ruihu 7:23,789 units, Lavida: 22,346 units, BYD Han: 22,346 vehicles Vehicles, Tiggo 8:21,640 cars, Boyue: 20,405, Frontlander: 20,293, Passat: 20,197. Among them, new energy ranked in the top 5 overall passenger car sales, and the main fuel vehicle models did not perform well domestically.
2) Retail: In May, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 47.0%, up 14 percentage points from 33% in the same period last year. In domestic retail sales in May, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among independent brands was 71.2%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among luxury cars was 28.4%; while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands was only 7.5%. Looking at the monthly domestic retail share, the retail share of NEVs from mainstream independent brands was 71% in May, down 2.1 percentage points year on year; joint venture brand NEV share was 4.5%, down 0.1 percentage points year on year; new power share was 16.3%, with brands such as Xiaomi Auto driving new forces up 3.5 percentage points year on year; Tesla's share was 6.4%, down 0.5 percentage points year on year.
3) Exports: In May, the NEV exports were 94,000 units, down 4.0% year on year and 18.8% month on month. Passenger car exports account for 24.8%, down 6.8 percentage points from the same period last year; of these, pure electric power accounts for 78% of new energy exports, and A0+A00 grade pure electric exports account for 61% of autonomous new energy exports. As the scale advantage of NEVs in China appears and the market is expanding, new energy product brands made in China are increasingly going abroad, and their overseas recognition continues to increase. Although they have recently been disrupted by some external countries, the NEV export market is still improving in the long run, and the prospects are bright. In terms of exports from manufacturers in May, BYD: 37,499, Tesla China: 17,358, Chery: 7,198, SAIC: 6,487, Great Wall: 2,905, Nacha: 2,764, Geely: 2,501, Dongfeng Honda: 2,492, SAIC-GM: 2,293, Xiaopeng: 1,578, Polestar: 1,455, Changan: 1,450, Jiangsu Yueda: 1,38Kia 9 cars, smart motor vehicles: 1,022. Other car companies also export new energy on a certain scale. Judging from retail data monitoring in overseas markets exported by independent brands, A0 class electric vehicles account for nearly 50%, and are the absolute main force in independent exports. Independent brands such as SAIC Motor performed well in Europe in the early stages, and BYD rose in markets such as Southeast Asia and South America. In addition to the impressive performance of traditional car exporters, exports from new forces have also gradually increased recently, and overseas markets are also beginning to show data.
4) Vehicle companies: The overall trend of new energy passenger car companies was strong in May. BYD's pure electric and plug-in hybrid dual drives consolidated its leading position in new energy brands; extended-range electric vehicles represented by Celis, Ideal Auto, Changan Auto, and Zero Sports have performed particularly well. In terms of product launch, the market base continues to expand as autonomous vehicle companies combine multiple channels on the new energy route, and the number of manufacturers with monthly wholesale sales of NEVs has reached 16 (2 month-on-month increase, 4 year-on-year increase), accounting for 88.6% of total NEV passenger vehicles (86.7% last month and 82.1% in the same period last year). Among them: BYD: 330,488, Tesla China: 72,573, Geely: 58,673, Changan: 50,272, Chery: 39,444, Ideal: 35,020, Cyrus: 34,177, SAIC-GM-Wuling: 33,870, GAC: 30,420, Great Wall: 24,549, NIO: 20,544, Zero Sport: 18,165, Dongfeng: 14,549 709, SAIC VW: 12,393, Xiaopeng Cars: 11,724; SAIC passenger cars: 10,026.
5) New forces: In May, the retail share of the new forces was 16.3%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points over the previous year; the overall sales performance of new car companies such as Xiaomi Auto, Ideal Auto, Wenjie, and NIO Auto was still strong year-on-year and month-on-month. Among mainstream joint venture brands, North and South Volkswagen led the way. SAIC Volkswagen and FAW-Volkswagen sold a total of 18,957 new energy vehicles, accounting for more than 45% of the mainstream joint ventures pure electric. Volkswagen's firm electrification transformation strategy is beginning to bear fruit. Other joint ventures and luxury brands still need to be strengthened.
6) General hybrid: 75,000 ordinary hybrid passenger cars were sold in May, up 20% year on year and 14% month on month. Among them, GAC Toyota: 29,941 units, FAW Toyota: 23,852 units, Dongfeng Honda: 6,616 units, Changan Ford: 5,153 units, GAC Honda: 3,312 units, Dongfeng Motor: 1,834 units, Geely Automobile: 1,6666 units, Dongfeng Nissan: 1,107 units, and GAC passenger cars: 986 vehicles.
2.June National Passenger Vehicle Market Outlook
There were 19 working days in June this year, two days less than the 21 working days last year, which is not conducive to the half-year sales sprint in June. The passenger car market has entered the end of half a year, and all regions and car companies are very willing to work hard to sprint up sales performance. New model deliveries are accompanied by improvements in manufacturing companies' system capacity, quickly releasing production capacity to seize the opportunity, so June is still a month with good sales trends.
The number of college entrance examinees in 2024 was 13.42 million, a record high. This will also bring enthusiasm for car students and tourism after the college entrance examination, which will help the car market continue to strengthen in June. As the experience of the third space for smart new energy vehicles improves and the overall cost of use is expected, the popularity of self-driving tours will increase again this summer, and personalized and low-cost travel methods such as private cars and self-driving will become the choice of more people.
The spring wave of new car price cuts came to an end. Beijing electric vehicle license plates were issued at the end of May, driven by trade-in updates, to jointly promote the continuation of the popularity of car purchases in June.
Demand for fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles is different, and they cannot be easily and comprehensively replaced. The continued slump in conventional fuel vehicle consumption is an important factor inhibiting the overall recovery of the car market. Policies such as trade-in reasonably guarantee the replacement demand of fuel vehicle consumers, and are of great significance to the steady development of the car market. The country's overall considerations and detailed grasp of the current “promotion of consumption and boosting domestic demand” are becoming increasingly clear and accurate, and the consumption potential of “eliminating renewal” and “trading in renewal” in the market will gradually be unleashed, which is beneficial to the gradual strengthening of the car market over the next few months.
Judging from monitoring data from passenger car manufacturers, retail sales of China's own-brand vehicle exports in overseas markets increased 57% year on year from January to May 2024. Among them, overseas retail sales of autonomous vehicle exports increased 57% year on year in May, and continued to maintain a strong growth trend. Judging from this, China's passenger car exports will maintain a good growth trend in June, which will drive the overall domestic and foreign sales volume of passenger cars to continue to increase relatively well from month to month in June.
3. From January to April 2024, the automobile industry's revenue was 3 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%, profit of 142.8 billion yuan, an increase of 29%, and a profit margin of 4.6%
In April, as macroeconomic policies were implemented in detail and market demand continued to pick up, the results continued to show. From January to April 2024, the automobile industry's revenue was 3,074.2 billion yuan, up 8% year on year; cost was 2,688.2 billion yuan, up 8%; profit was 142.8 billion yuan, up 29% year on year; the profit margin of the automobile industry was 4.6%. Compared with the average profit margin of 5% for the entire industrial enterprise, the automobile industry is still low.
Production and sales in the automobile industry from January to April 2024 were relatively good at a low base, but due to high competitive pressure, profits mainly came from exports and high-end luxury. Most other companies' profits declined sharply, and the pressure on some companies to survive increased. Effective domestic demand is still insufficient, the external environment is still complex and severe, and the basis for recovering the benefits of industrial enterprises still needs to be consolidated. Since fuel vehicles are still profitable, but the market is shrinking rapidly; new energy vehicles are growing at a high rate, but losses are high. The conflict between the two is huge, increasing the pressure on businesses to operate. Therefore, the general idea of stabilizing automobile production and stabilizing fuel vehicle consumption by the central government and various levels of government will keep the overall situation in the automobile industry stable, moderate and positive.
4. From January to April 2024, China accounted for 64% of the world's NEVs
From January to April 2024, world automobile sales reached 28.36 million units, and the world's new energy vehicles reached 4.49 million units. From January to April 2024, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the world reached 15.8%. Among them, the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles reached 10.4%, while the penetration rate of plug-in hybrids reached 5.4%.
In April 2024, the world sold 1.19 million new energy passenger vehicles, up 24% year on year and down 10% month on month. From January to April, the number of new energy passenger vehicles in the world reached 4.36 million, an increase of 22% over the previous year. Among them, the net increase of new energy passenger vehicles in Europe from January to April this year was only 70,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8%; European NEV sales in April were 220,000 units, up 14%; in January-April of this year, sales of new energy vehicles in the US were 480,000 units, an increase of 9%, and the growth rate of new energy in the US slowed. The slowdown in sales growth of new energy in Europe and the US is worth paying attention to. Currently, early experimenters and environmentalists have bought electric vehicles, and mainstream consumers are still very concerned about charging infrastructure, battery life, and insurance costs. Under a financial policy with higher interest rates, even if the use of autonomous driving is liberalized, the increase in sales penetration rate has not reached the expected level.
Recently, the growth rate of China's new energy passenger vehicles is higher than the world average. In 2023, China accounted for 64% of the world's share, and continued to maintain a 64% share from January to April 2024. Among them, China's global share of NEV passenger vehicles reached 67% in April. In 2023, China's share of pure electric vehicles reached 62% of the world, and from January to April 2024, the share of pure electric vehicles reached 59% of the world, and the performance was relatively stable. China's plug-in hybrid accounts for 70% of the world market, showing outstanding performance. Among them, China's share of plug-in hybrids in the world was 69% in 2023, and further increased to a high level of 71% from January to April 2024.
From January to April 2024, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in China was 38.2%, an increase of 7.2 percentage points over the previous year. The penetration rate of new energy in Europe was 16.1% (16.2% in the same period), and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the US was 9.1% (8.5% in the same period). The penetration rate of new energy in Europe and the US was basically unchanged compared to the same period last year.
5. In April 2024, China's automobile exports reached 556,000 vehicles, an increase of 31% over the previous year
In April 2024, Chinese automobiles exported 556,000 vehicles, up 31% year on year and 13% month on month; in January-April, China exported 1.88,000 vehicles, with export growth rate 26%. In the first quarter, there was a slowdown compared to the high growth rate of the previous three years, and the growth rate rebounded in April. The main impetus for this year is still the increase in the competitiveness of Chinese products, the slight increase in the European and American markets, and the total replacement of international brands in the Russian market by Chinese cars under the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. In particular, the increase in exports brought about by the increase in the competitiveness of China's fuel vehicle exports. From January to April 2024, China's automobile exports reached 35.9 billion US dollars, and the export growth rate was 21.2%. The average price of automobile exports from January to April 2024 was 19,000 US dollars, compared with 19,000 US dollars in 2023, which is still basically the same.
The top five countries with total automobile exports in April 2024: Russia 93,478, Brazil 47,389, Mexico 38,997, UAE 31,237, Belgium 27,293; the top five countries that increased China's automobile exports in April: Brazil 43,134, UAE 17,560, Russia 16,902, UK 7,673, and Belgium 7,137.
The top five countries with total vehicle exports from January to April 2024: Russia 268,779, Mexico 148,705, Brazil 106,448, Belgium 95,230, UAE 85,869; the top five countries that increased China's automobile exports in April: Brazil 89,709, Russia 51,132, the United Arab Emirates 38,915, Mexico 31,940, and Kyrgyzstan 30,812. The increase in the top 5 countries contributed 65%, of which Brazil's exports contributed greatly. Markets such as Israel, Australia, Spain, Thailand, and France declined significantly from January to April 2024; the Central Asian and Russian markets all performed relatively well.
6. In April 2024, China imported 51,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 17%
China's imported car imports continued to decline at an average annual rate of around 8% from 1.24 million vehicles in 2017 to only 800,000 units in 2023. From January to April 2024, 210,000 vehicles were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, and the downward trend continued. In April, 51,000 cars were imported, down 17% year on year and 3% month on month; in April, the number of imported cars from Japan and the UK increased rapidly. The highest imports in April 2024 were 16,791 vehicles from Japan, 12,507 vehicles from Germany, 9,774 vehicles from the US, 3,699 from Slovakia, and 2,070 vehicles from Sweden. The biggest increase in April was 5,221 in Japan, 1,483 in the US, 882 in Austria, 830 in Hungary, and 479 in the Netherlands.
From January to April 2024, the highest number of imported cars was 61,853 from Japan, 48,904 from Germany, 36,227 from the US, 19,501 from Slovakia, and 16,753 from the United Kingdom; the biggest increase in January-April was 22,875 vehicles from Japan, 1,430 from the Netherlands, 565 from South Korea, and 219 from Belgium. In 2023, European passenger car exports of 2.5 litres or more to China reached 196,000 units, up 11% year on year, up 3% year on year, reaching 44,000 units from January to April 2024, down 12%, and US$4.1 billion down 16%. Among them, imports in April were 85,000 vehicles, down 46%, and April imports amounted to 850 million US dollars, a decrease of 42%. As China's automobile industry chain continues to strengthen and improve, the electrification transformation has changed the market demand structure. Demand for fuel vehicles continues to shrink, and demand for imported fuel vehicles has also declined markedly.