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Annual growth of over 60%! Taiwan Semiconductor continues to achieve historic highs, how strong is this "oil of the AI era"?

Futu News · Jun 11 22:38

随着全球对先进AI芯片的需求激增，芯片行业喜报连连，作为芯片代工之王$台积电 (TSM.US)$股价也连创历史新高，今年来涨幅已超60%，成为美股市场市值第八大公司。

这一股价的飙升，不仅反映了市场对台积电业绩的认可，也与公司近期的一系列动态密切相关。

作为芯片代工之王的台积电，到底有多强？

市场认为，如果英伟达是AI军火库，那么台积电则是AI时代的“石油”。

台积电在全球最尖端的制造技术中占据着领导地位，许多知名的科技公司都依赖台积电的制程来生产他们的高性能芯片。

由上图可以看出，苹果是台积电最大客户，为其贡献了全年1/4营收。事实上，苹果作为台积电最大客户之一，多年来都会首发新工艺，且实现很长一段时间的独占。根据报道，台积电预计将从2025年量产2nm芯片，届时iPhone 17 Pro将会成为首个吃螃蟹的厂商，并且独占台积电全年的产能。

此外，英伟达已经上升为台积电的第二大客户，台积电当前是英伟达旗下需求无比强劲的AI芯片——A100/H100唯一芯片代工商，而英伟达则是全球AI芯片市场的绝对主导者，占有高达80%—90%的市场份额。

从2023年的财务报告来看，英伟达与苹果2家公司，都与台积电建立密切关系，从目前情况来看，台积电的收入未来可能持续成长。

台积电利好频出：订单爆满，黄仁勋也站台

据中国台湾经济日报报道，AI服务器、HPC应用与高阶智能手机AI化驱动下，苹果、高通、英伟达、AMD等四大厂传大举包下台积电3nm家族制程产能，并涌现客户排队潮，一路排到2026年。

业界认为，在客户抢着预订产能下，台积电3nm家族产能持续吃紧，将成为近二年常态，相关订单尚未包含英特尔CPU委外需求。业界透露，台积电3nm家族总产能持续拉升，预估月产能有望拉升到12万片至18万片。

另外，在6月4日的股东大会上，时任台积电董事长的刘德音表示，预计AI需求比一年前乐观，随着AI的应用和芯片对公司提出更高要求，台积电对未来的增长充满信心。

会后，台积电新任董事长魏哲家暗示拟提高AI芯片代工服务价格，其主要客户之一英伟达的创始人兼CEO黄仁勋在次日回应称：

台积电价格太低了。就台积电对全世界和科技行业的贡献而言，财报数字显然被低估了。

除此之外，根据 Counterpoint Research 最新发布的《按制程和代工划分的智能手机AP/SoC长期出货量预测》报告显示，经历了两年的大幅下滑之后，智能手机半导体市场有望迎来转机，预计2024年智能手机应用处理器的出货量将同比反弹9%。

这一增长的主要驱动因素是旗舰芯片将从5/4nm芯片转向3nm芯片，以及高端和超高端智能手机市场的预期增长。从长远来看，台积电将成为该领域的代工受益者。

华尔街怎么看？

摩根士丹利分析师预计台积电可能会在2025年提高晶圆价格5%，以保持其毛利率在53%及以上的水平，并表示如果英伟达接受涨价，其他关键的AI客户也可能会跟进。

与此同时，AI芯片需求仍然强劲。大摩预计，台积电在2024年将把CoWoS产能提升一倍以上，部分封装工艺甚至可能外包给其它后端代工厂，并且客户需求还可能难以满足。

在这种趋势下，大摩认为台积电将成为AI趋势的“长期赢家”——无论是GPU还是ASIC、是云计算还是边缘AI，大多都需要台积电的尖端代工服务，因此该公司在AI增长方面具备很大优势。

大摩预测，2024年，AI云业务的芯片需求（不含CPU）对台积电营收的贡献为11%，到2027年这一数值将增至20%，如果计入更广范围的AI芯片代工业务，AI业务对台积电营收的贡献到2025年将超过20%。

高盛则预计，假如台积电将提高代工合约价格，目前最可能的情况是同时提高先进芯片制程和CoWoS先进封装定价。高盛对台积电台股的目标价为975新台币，重申“买入”评级。

台积电股价屡创新高！这些ETF也值得关注

美股市场上有很多半导体相关的ETF，包括$iShares费城交易所半导体ETF (SOXX.US)$、$半导体指数ETF-VanEck (SMH.US)$、$3倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion (SOXL.US)$等。

随着英伟达、台积电等芯片股股价屡创新高，这三只ETF今年来也起飞，年内分别涨约27%、46%、72%。

从下图也可以看出，$iShares费城交易所半导体ETF (SOXX.US)$第一大成分股是英伟达、台积电则位居第七大；而这两家公司则分别为$半导体指数ETF-VanEck (SMH.US)$的第一、第二大成分股。

除此之外，美股还有众多半导体ETF，牛友们可以通过市场>ETF>主题ETF>半导体ETF，找到自己心水的ETF！

编辑/Somer

With the increasing global demand for advanced AI chips, the chip industry has been showing good news. As the king of chip foundries, their stock price has continued to hit new highs, with a gain of over 60% so far this year, making it the 8th largest company in the US stock market by market capitalization.$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$As the king of chip foundries, how strong is Taiwan Semiconductor?

The soaring stock price not only reflects the market's recognition of TSMC's performance, but is also closely related to the company's recent developments.

The market believes that if Nvidia is the arsenal of AI, then Taiwan Semiconductor is the 'oil' of the AI era.

Taiwan Semiconductor occupies a leading position in the world's most advanced manufacturing technology, and many well-known technology companies rely on their process to produce their high-performance chips.

As shown in the figure above, Apple is Taiwan Semiconductor's largest customer, contributing 1/4 of its revenue for the year. In fact, as one of Taiwan Semiconductor's largest customers, Apple has been the first to adopt new processes for many years, and has achieved relatively long-term exclusivity. According to reports, Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to mass-produce 2nm chips in 2025, and the iPhone 17 Pro will become the first vendor to eat this crab, and monopolize Taiwan Semiconductor's production capacity for the whole year.

In addition, Nvidia has risen to become Taiwan Semiconductor's second largest customer. Taiwan Semiconductor is currently the only chip foundry for Nvidia's AI chips, A100/H100, whose demand is extremely strong, while Nvidia is the absolute leader in the global AI chip market, with a market share of up to 80-90%.

From the 2023 financial report, Nvidia and Apple, two companies, have established close relationships with Taiwan Semiconductor. From the current situation, Taiwan Semiconductor's revenue may continue to grow in the future.

Taiwan Semiconductor has good news, with orders exploding and Huang Renxun also on stage.

According to the China Taiwan Economic Daily, under the driving force of AI servers, HPC applications, and high-end smartphones becoming AI-driven, Apple, Qualcomm, Nvidia, AMD, and other four major factories have taken up Taiwan Semiconductor's 3nm family process capacity, and there is a surge of customers queuing up, all the way until 2026.

Industry insiders believe that under the circumstance of customers rushing to book production capacity, Taiwan Semiconductor's 3nm family production capacity will continue to remain tight and become the norm for the next two years. Related orders do not yet include outsourcing demand for Intel CPUs. The industry revealed that the overall production capacity of Taiwan Semiconductor's 3nm family is continuously rising, and monthly capacity is expected to increase to 120,000 to 180,000 wafers.

In addition, at the shareholders' meeting on June 4th, the then Chairman of Taiwan Semiconductor, Liu Dein, said that he expected the demand for AI to be more optimistic than a year ago, and that Taiwan Semiconductor is confident about its future growth as AI applications and chips put forward higher requirements for the company.

Taiwan Semiconductor's price is too low. From the perspective of its contribution to the world and the technology industry, the financial figures are obviously undervalued.

After the meeting, the newly appointed chairman of Taiwan Semiconductor, Wei Zhejia, hinted at raising the AI chip outsourcing service price. Huang Renxun, the founder and CEO of one of the company's main customers, NVIDIA, responded the next day by saying:

In addition, according to the latest report on long-term shipments of smartphone AP/SoC divided by process and foundry by Counterpoint Research, after a significant decline for two years, the smartphone semiconductor market is expected to usher in a turning point, and it is expected that the shipment volume of smartphone application processors will rebound by 9% in 2024 year-on-year, driven by flagship chips switching from 5/4nm chips to 3nm chips, and the expected growth of the high-end and ultra-high-end smartphone market. In the long run, Taiwan Semiconductor will be the beneficiary of this field.

Morgan Stanley analysts expect Taiwan Semiconductor to increase wafer prices by 5% in 2025 to maintain gross margins of 53% or higher, and said that if Nvidia accepts the price increase, other key AI customers may follow suit.

Meanwhile, the demand for AI chips remains strong. Goldman Sachs expects Taiwan Semiconductor to increase its CoWoS capacity by more than double in 2024, and some packaging processes may even be outsourced to other backend foundries, and customer demand may be difficult to meet. In this trend, Goldman Sachs believes that Taiwan Semiconductor will be the 'long-term winner' in the AI trend - whether it is GPU or ASIC, cloud computing or edge AI, most of them will need Taiwan Semiconductor's cutting-edge foundry services, so the company has a great advantage in AI growth.

How does Wall Street look at this?

Goldman Sachs expects that if Taiwan Semiconductor raises its foundry contract price, the most likely situation at present is to increase the pricing of advanced chip processes and advanced CoWoS packaging at the same time. Goldman Sachs has a target price of NTD 975 for Taiwan Semiconductor, reiterating a 'buy' rating.

At the same time, demand for AI chips remains strong. Morgan Stanley expects that Taiwan Semiconductor will double its CoWoS capacity by 2024, and some packaging processes may be outsourced to other backend foundries. In addition, customer demand may be difficult to meet. It is believed that Taiwan Semiconductor will be the long-term winner of the AI trend - whether it is GPU or ASIC, cloud computing or edge AI, most of them will need the cutting-edge foundry services of Taiwan Semiconductor, so the company has a great advantage in AI growth.

Under this trend, Morgan Stanley believes that Taiwan Semiconductor will be the 'long-term winner' of the AI trend - whether it is GPU or ASIC, cloud computing or edge AI, most of them will need Taiwan Semiconductor's cutting-edge foundry services, so the company has a great advantage in AI growth.

Morgan Stanley predicts that in 2024, the contribution of AI cloud business chip demand (excluding CPU) to TSMC's revenue will be 11%, and this number will increase to 20% by 2027. If the more extensive AI chip foundry business is taken into account, the contribution of AI business to TSMC's revenue will exceed 20% by 2025.

Taiwan Semiconductor's stock price has repeatedly reached new highs! These ETFs are also worth noting.

There are many semiconductor-related ETFs in the US market, including$iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX.US)$, $VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH.US)$, $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$etc.

With the stock prices of chip stocks such as Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor repeatedly hitting new highs, these three ETFs have also taken off this year, rising by about 27%, 46%, and 72% respectively.

From the chart below, it can also be seen that$iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX.US)$$Semiconductor Index ETF-VanEck (SMH.US)$.$VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH.US)$The first and second largest component stocks.

In addition, the US stock market also has many semiconductor ETFs, and mooers can access them through the market > ETF >Market>ETF>Theme ETF>Semiconductor ETFetc.

Editor/Somer

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