Coffee futures in New York and London fluctuated as ongoing supply concerns continued to exacerbate volatility.

Robusta crude futures fell 2.7% in London on Monday, then fluctuated between ups and downs. In New York, Arabica coffee futures fell 2.6% for a while, then narrowed somewhat.

Daria Efanova (Daria Efanova), head of research at Sucden Financial (Sucden Financial), said in a report on Monday that the ongoing drought in Vietnam, the largest exporter of Robusta coffee, has exacerbated price fluctuations. This has brought the 60-day price fluctuation indicator close to its highest level since at least 2008.

“Although we expect the near future to be bumpy, our long-term estimates are still moderately optimistic,” Efanova said.

She added that the volatility of Arabica coffee has also increased due to concerns about below-average rainfall in Brazil, the largest supplier, combined with rising speculative demand due to the tightening cocoa market.

“It depends a lot on weather patterns over the next few months,” Efanova said. “We are cautious about potential heatwaves and heavy rain, which could significantly change the prices of Arabica and Robusta coffee.”

Marcelo Moreira (Marcelo Moreira) of Archer Consulting, who tracks the coffee market, said that fund managers have recently increased their coffee long positions, but from now on, their actions may put some downward pressure on prices in the short term. He pointed out that investors are also paying attention to July Arabica coffee options due to expire on Wednesday. Some put options have a large number of unclosed positions.