Short-term inflation expectations in the USA are down, with optimism in the stock market reaching a three-year high.

Golden10 Data ·  Jun 11 18:38

After their previous optimism, the US stock market plummeted by 30%, yet they still predict that gold will rise by 4.8% in the next 12 months.

According to a survey by the New York Fed, American households' optimism about the outlook for the U.S. stock market reached its highest level in three years.

According to the monthly consumer survey released by the New York Fed on Monday, the probability of U.S. citizens expecting higher stock prices one year from now reached its highest level since May 2021, at 40.5%. Consumer optimism rose across most age groups, education levels, and regions.

As major U.S. stock indexes hit new highs, U.S. household net worth reached a record high in the first quarter, and the U.S. stock market continued to rise. These gains may help support broader consumer confidence: in a New York Fed poll, the proportion of respondents expecting their financial situation to be the same or better in a year rose to 78.1%, the highest level since June 2021.

As a reference, this series of data reached its peak in April 2020, and the U.S. stock market subsequently plummeted by about 30%. It is noteworthy that none of the respondents are aware that a year from today, or six months after the (potential) Trump administration takes office, the Fed and Congress will ultimately allow stock prices to crash, as the disastrous economic reality will no longer be covered up by the various officials at the Commerce Department and the Labor Department.

Meanwhile, consumer inflation expectations in May have changed little. The median expectation for inflation over the next year fell from 3.3% to 3.2%, and the median expectation for inflation over the next three years remained unchanged at 2.8%. The median expectation for inflation over the next five years rose from 2.8% to 3.0%. These survey data will lay the foundation for the widely anticipated CPI data on Wednesday.

Consumers expect gasoline prices to rise by 4.85% next year; food prices to rise by 5.3%; medical expenses to rise by 9.07%; college education prices to rise by 8.45%; and rent prices to rise by 9.08%.

They also anticipate a 4.8% increase in gold over the next 12 months. Zero Hedge said it was ridiculous because that number would lag behind all other categories and indicated that all data was likely manipulated by the survey organizers to present a more acceptable situation.


The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment