即时配送单量增长亮眼，利润持续释放。24Q1 公司即时配送交易笔数同比增长28.1%至54.65 亿笔，好于一致预期。1）餐饮外卖我们测算得24Q1 单量同比增长24%，外卖交易用户数大幅增加，交易频次增长更快。Q1 公司继续为消费者提供高性价比供给，如“品牌卫星店”模式中KA 商家可更精简的成本结构运营，为消费者提供更低的价格；“拼好饭”业务范围进一步拓展，日订单量峰值创新高；“神枪手”推出更多KA 热销餐品。同时，平台营销策略加强推动广告收入超预期，Q1 外卖年度广告商户数同比增长超过20%。展望Q2，单量和客单价受基数和外部环境影响仍有所承压，但广告货币化率提升及骑手供给充足使UE 有所保障。2）闪购业务增长超过我们预期，我们测算得24Q1 单量同比增长55%-60%。闪购已有约7000 家闪电仓，Q1 其订单量占比提升，加速低线市场在线化渗透，不断扩大品类。Performance exceeded expectations: Meituan achieved revenue of 73.3 billion yuan in 24Q1, an increase of 25% over the previous year. Bloomberg's agreed forecast was 69 billion yuan; adjusted net profit to mother was 7.5 billion yuan, and Bloomberg's agreed forecast was 6 billion yuan.
The company's revenue profit was better than expected.
Profits from core local businesses and new businesses were better than expected. (1) Core local business: 24Q1 revenue increased 27% year over year to $54.6 billion, and operating profit reached 9.7 billion yuan, all better than agreed expectations. Among them, both commission revenue and marketing revenue were better than agreed expectations. (2) New business: 24Q1 revenue increased 18.5% year over year to 18.7 billion yuan, and operating loss narrowed to 2.8 billion yuan year over year, better than agreed expectations. The operating loss rate narrowed by 17 pct to 14.8% year on year. Considering that Q1 community group buying losses were better than expected, we expect the overall loss of the new business to narrow to less than 9 billion yuan in 24.
The volume of orders delivered instantly increased significantly, and profits continued to be released. The number of 24Q1 instant delivery transactions increased by 28.1% year-on-year to 5.465 billion, better than the consensus forecast. 1) Food and beverage takeout We estimate that the 24Q1 order volume increased by 24% year on year, the number of takeout transaction users increased dramatically, and the frequency of transactions grew faster. Q1 The company continues to provide consumers with cost-effective supplies. For example, in the “brand satellite store” model, KA merchants can operate with a more streamlined cost structure to provide consumers with lower prices; the “cooking” business scope was further expanded, and the daily order volume peaked at a record high; and the “sharpshooter” launched more popular KA food products. At the same time, the strengthening of platform marketing strategies pushed advertising revenue to exceed expectations, and the number of takeout advertisers increased by more than 20% year-on-year in Q1. Looking ahead to Q2, the order volume and customer unit price are still under pressure due to the impact of the base and external environment, but the increase in advertising monetization rate and sufficient rider supply guarantee UE. 2) The flash sales business growth exceeded our expectations. We estimated that the 24Q1 order volume increased 55%-60% year-on-year. Flash sales already have about 7,000 Lightning warehouses. Q1 increased their share of orders, accelerated the online penetration of the low-tier market, and continuously expanded the categories.
We continue to be optimistic that the flash sales business will continue to grow far better than the retail market in 2024.
There was a high increase in GTV for in-store wine tours, and the monetization rate increased month-on-month. The 24Q1 company's in-store wine tourism GTV increased by more than 60% year-on-year, and the number of annual transaction users exceeded 57%, partly benefiting from the active expansion of the sinking market.
After the sinking market agents switched to direct management, the company actively launched merchants, provided efficient management solutions and marketing tools, and promoted a further increase in penetration rate. Q1 We estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of in-store wine travel revenue was 30%. The difference with GTV's growth rate was reduced month-on-month. We expect it to be mainly due to the increase in the company's advertising monetization rate. In terms of hotels, the company Q1 further consolidated the market share of low-star hotels, and high-star hotels made good progress. The pattern of the on-site wine travel industry is stabilizing, and we continue to be optimistic about the future monetization potential of this business.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Considering that the company's Q1 profit was better than our expectations, we raised the company's adjusted profit for 2024-2026 from 337/472/59.7 billion yuan to 377/515/60.9 billion yuan, corresponding to the 2024-2026 adjusted PE of 17/12/10 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: consumption recovery falls short of expectations, profit falls short of expectations, competitive landscape
