Zhītōng Cáijīng APP learned that bocom intl issued a report stating that consumer performance was slightly lower than expected from early 2024 to present, but improvement is expected in the second half of the year. The bank pointed out that the consensus expectation for the revenue growth rate of 104 consumer goods companies in 2024 has been lowered from 10.7% six months ago to 9.6%, indicating that consumer spending since the beginning of the year, although healthy, is slightly below market expectations. The downward revision comes mostly from necessary consumption, while optional consumption generally meets expectations. However, the bank holds a cautious optimistic attitude toward the second half of the year, as the lower base in the second half of the year, hot weather, and the continued heating up of international sports events are expected to drive sales of essential consumer goods, as well as dining, beer, and sporting goods.

Bocom intl believes that consumption is showing a polarization trend. Of the 13 global consumer goods companies operating in China, the business recovery is mentioned as "slow" and "fluctuating", the attitude of consumers in the short term is cautious, and the interest in high-priced goods is decreasing, but the optimism for China's long-term recovery remains. On the one hand, high-end goods (baijiu, luxury goods) continue to perform well, while on the other hand, basic products show weakened performance.

Bocom intl expects that due to the weakening of prices and costs, the gross margin of necessary consumption will remain stable. The bank's CPI-PPI tracking index has always been able to accurately predict the gross margin of necessary consumption, and this indicator currently predicts that the gross margin will remain stable, as the lower costs are offset by weak pricing. The bank's preferred stocks in the second half of the year include China Res Beer (00291), Topsports (06110), and Nongfu Spring (09633).