Zhittong Finance App learned that the 17th SNEC International Solar Photovoltaic and Smart Energy Exhibition and Conference (Shanghai) will be held on June 13-15, 2024，which is also the largest scale in history. According to GTJA research reports, the photovoltaic industry is currently at an expected bottom, and the industry fundamentals are expected to turn marginally upward following the improvement expectation of supply and demand and the bottom stabilization of photovoltaic industry chain prices. Relevant symbols include GCL Tech (03800), flat glass (06865), Xinte Energy (01799), and Xinyi Solar (00968).
According to the official introduction of the conference, the number of participating companies in this year's SNEC exhibition has reached a record high. There are more than 3,500 domestic and foreign exhibitors with an exhibition area of more than 400,000 square meters, and expected visitors of 500,000 and academic experts of over 5,000.
It is reported that during this SNEC exhibition, Trina Solar Co., Ltd. will showcase its supreme N-type 720W module, supreme N-type 625W series module, and supreme N-type 455W module with full-scenario applications. JinkoSolar will hold the N-type module release ceremony and the Dolphin commercial and industrial energy storage product release ceremony. Longi Green Energy's focus will be on BC technology; and Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy will release a new generation of ABC modules.
Whether it is TOPCon or BC, they are popular technical directions in the current solar photovoltaic industry. N-type TOPCon is one of the main development directions of the current photovoltaic frontier technology. Because of its high theoretical conversion efficiency and the characteristics that can be upgraded and transformed based on the PERC production line, it occupies a certain degree of market dominance. The BC technology route has a higher conversion efficiency than the N-type and a unique structural design, and is also gradually expanding its market share.
However, in recent years, the market competition in the photovoltaic industry has been fierce, and the prices of photovoltaic industry chain have continued to decline, which has put pressure on the entire industry. In the first quarter of this year, only JinkoSolar, Aters, and Trina Solar achieved profitability, while Longi Green Energy, TCL Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology, Tongwei Co., Ltd., JA Solar Technology, Risen Energy, and Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy all experienced losses.
Data released by the National Energy Administration shows that the cumulative newly installed solar power generation capacity in the first four months of this year was 60.11GW, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%. However, this growth was based on a large increase in photovoltaic newly installed capacity in January and February compared to last year.
On May 17, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association held a forum on the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry. The meeting pointed out that China will strengthen crackdowns on vicious price-cutting sales below cost, encourage industry mergers and acquisitions, and smooth out market exit mechanisms.
During a recent investor survey, Longi Green Energy pointed out that in the face of increasing cash flow pressures, photovoltaic cutbacks and shutdowns have gradually increased since May, and the industry inventory is expected to accelerate consumption. The subsequent price changes in the photovoltaic main chain mainly depend on the dynamic changes in industry supply and demand. With the sustained increase in global photovoltaic demand, there is no doubt that there will be a certain rebound in industry chain prices.
GTJA research reports pointed out that with the joint efforts of the industry, the market, and the government, the photovoltaic industry is expected to continue to develop with high quality, and the improvement of supply and demand expectations is expected to strengthen. The photovoltaic industry is currently at an expected bottom position, and following the expectation of improved supply and demand and the bottom stabilization of photovoltaic industry chain prices, the industry fundamentals are expected to turn marginally upward.
Related concept stocks:
GCL Tech (03800): The company mainly engages in manufacturing polycrystalline silicon and silicon wafers for photovoltaic companies, as well as developing and managing eco-friendly power plants. It is one of the top four giants in the domestic silica materials industry. GCL Tech continues to expand particle silicon production capacity, and is expected to reach 300,000/400,000/500,000 tons of silica materials production capacity from 2023 to 2025, respectively.
Flat Glass Group (06865): By the end of 2023, the company's total production capacity will be 20,600 tons/day, with a daily melting capacity of 9,600 tons/day for Anhui Phase IV and Nantong projects, which is expected to be operational this year. The company plans to invest in and build a photovoltaic glass kiln in Indonesia to meet the demand for photovoltaic glass in different countries and regions.
Xinte Energy (01799): The company's main business is the production of polysilicon and providing engineering and construction contract services for solar and wind power plants and systems, as well as the operation of solar and wind power plants. In early November 2023, Guosen Securities (Hong Kong) released a research report stating that the current silicon material prices may have reached the bottom area. Although it will take some time to reverse the supply and demand pattern, the Xinte Energy stock price has already responded sufficiently to the market's pessimistic expectations.
Xinyi Solar (00968): With the rapid decline in component prices in 2023, the company took the opportunity to increase the scale of photovoltaic power plants connected to the grid, with a total of over 1GW new connections throughout the year, a 22% increase, driving an 8% increase in power plant revenue. On February 28, the company signed a 790MW power plant transfer agreement with Xinyi Energy. The company's development and sales business model is rolling out smoothly. In addition, the company's 60,000-ton polysilicon project in Qujing, Yunnan is expected to start production in the first half of 2024 and contribute to output in the second half of the year.