Recently, we have tracked the business situation of Yasui Foods. The key points are as follows:
The category matrix continues to be optimized, and the skewer business is growing strongly: Q2 The core of operation is to promote new products and channel expansion. The current consumption pressure is compounded by the off-season, and the introduction of new products is beneficial to increase sales during the peak season. The performance of Yasui's various fine molecule categories is as follows: 1) Frozen: The 5.0 version will launch a new product of cod sausage. Currently, its cost is at a historically low level, which is expected to further improve the profit level of locked fresh packaging; 2) Shrimp paste: popular with consumers due to its health properties, and still performs well in an environment where supermarket traffic is declining; 3) Mr. Frozen It still uses hot pot peripheral products and prepared dishes Transformation is the core, and thanks to the moderately high channel distribution, beef and lamb are expected to continue to be sold (vegetable market channel); 4) Sausage: Good short-term sales performance, high price increase rate at sausage terminals, and strong dealer promotion enthusiasm. In addition to sausages, the company also provides a matrix of oven products such as grilled fish and eggs. The company's skewer business is gradually starting up and is expected to become a new driving force for growth.
The price competition in the industry is less affected, and I am optimistic about the increase in the medium- to long-term profit center: since the second half of last year, price competition has intensified, but competition is mainly concentrated in the rice and noodle category, meat products and surimi products industry competition is relatively moderate, and Yasui has obvious advantages in the field of locked fresh packaging. The success of locked fresh packaging lies in the company's continuous investment in expenses and policy support, and it already has a certain brand power, and is less affected by price competition. Therefore, compared to other frozen products companies, we expect Yasui Foods' profit margin to be more stable, and the profit center is expected to continue to rise in the long run through an increase in the share of fresh packaging and the deepening scale effect.
The national production capacity layout is expected to support the company's territorial construction: with the gradual improvement of the company's nationalized production capacity layout, the past real estate sales model was further upgraded to the “origin research” + “origin sales” new product development and promotion model. In the past, Yasui had less surplus production capacity, and the company gave priority to large circulation products, but with the gradual improvement of the national production capacity layout, production can be further optimized to customized or localized production. In the context of fewer nationally distributed single products to choose from, explore large territorial single products with regional opportunities to supplement growth momentum Sustained steady growth.
Profit forecasting, valuation and ratings: Although the external consumption environment is still under pressure, the company's multi-category and multi-channel rich layout is expected to explore incremental sources and consolidate its leading position. The company's net profit forecast for 2024-26 is 16.6/19.2/2.09 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponds to the 2024-26 PE valuation 15/13/12 times. As a leader in the frozen goods industry, the company has a stable market position, strong driving force for multi-category growth, and maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Logistics continues to be limited, channel expansion is blocked, and raw material costs are rising.