Source: Wall Street News Author: Fang Jiayao, Du Yu

At the same time, after last Friday's release of the U.S. non-farm employment report, the market is focusing on Wednesday's release of inflation data and the Fed’s interest rate decision, in search of clues about rates and economic prospects. The market generally expects the Fed to keep its rates unchanged at this meeting. Media estimates suggest that 41% of economists expect the new dot chart to show two rate cuts this year, while an equal number of economists expect the Fed to cut rates only once or not at all. And in recent weeks, several Federal Reserve officials have said they are not in a rush to cut rates because of sustained inflation and a stable economy.

The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the market now expects the Fed to cut rates only once this year, probably in November. In addition, the latest survey results from the New York Fed show that the one-year inflation expectation in the U.S. in May has dropped slightly to 3.17%, down from 3.26% previously, while the three-year inflation expectation remains stable at 2.8%, and the five-year inflation expectation has risen from 2.8% to 3.0%. The optimism of U.S. households about the stock market has improved, reaching a three-year high.

Behind the seemingly calm indices, things are not optimistic. At present, the gap between the equally weighted S&P index and the market value weighted S&P index has widened to the level of 2008/2009. Wall Street's major banks are urging investors to prepare for possible market turbulence. JPMorgan said that because CPI and the Fed's decision are on the same day, there is a possibility that the CPI will be reversed by Powell's press conference. The most likely scenario is that if core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, the

Major Wall Street banks are urging investors to prepare for potential market volatility. JPMorgan said that because CPI and the Fed decision are on the same day, there is a possibility of the CPI result being reversed by Powell's press conference. The most likely scenario is that if the core CPI increases by 0.3% month-on-month, the fluctuation of the S&P 500 index will be between -0.75% and +0.75%. Citibank said that if the month-on-month increase in the core CPI is between 0.20% and 0.25%, the expected interest rate cut in September may soar. A rate below 0.2% will be regarded as a significant bullish signal for the stock market, pushing the S&P 500 index up by 1.75% to 2.50%.

On Monday, June 10, the three major U.S. stock indices all opened lower, but half an hour after the opening, the Dow, which was dominated by blue-chip stocks, was the first to turn higher, although it briefly turned lower before midday, but closed higher and hit a new daily high, with the highest point rising 78 points or 0.2%. Within an hour and a half of the opening, the NASDAQ, dominated by technology stocks, turned higher and rose more than 0.46% to its highest point. Less than 20 minutes after the opening, the S&P 500 fell to a daily low of 5,331.52, then fluctuated upward and turned higher, with a closing high of 5,365.79, approaching the intraday historical high of 5,375.08 set on non-farm employment day, with the highest point rising by more than 0.3% and the closing gain slightly retreating.

As of the close, all three major U.S. stock indices rose collectively the day after the non-farm employment report, marking the first day of gains in three days for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, which both hit new historic highs. Russell small-cap stocks and

At the close, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose on the "non-farm day", with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq welcoming their first up day in three days and closing at historic highs. Russell small-cap stocks and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index both rose, with the chip stock index hitting a new high and rising above 5,300 points.

The S&P 500 index rose 0.26% to a historical high of 5,360.79 points. The Dow Jones rose 69.05 points, or 0.18%, to 38,868.04 points, and the Nasdaq rose 0.35% to a historical high and closed at 17,192.53 points.

The Nasdaq 100 index rose by about 0.39%, hitting a new high.

The Russell 2000 small-cap index rose 0.25%, while the 'fear index' VIX rose more than 4% to 12.74.

Most of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index rose. The utility sector rose by 1.28%, the energy sector rose by more than 0.7%, the telecommunications services sector rose by more than 0.6%, the consumer discretionary sector rose by more than 0.5%, and the information technology/technology sector rose by about 0.3%. The financial sector fell by nearly 0.4% after hitting a closing high for the second trading day in a row.

Major asset class ETFs in the US rose and fell differently. US Brent Oil Fund rose by 3.06%, while Gold ETF, Emerging Markets ETF, and Nasdaq 100 ETF all rose by at least 0.4%. US Real Estate ETF, S&P 500 ETF, Long USD ETF, Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, and Barclays US Convertible Bond ETF all rose by more than 0.2%. Meanwhile, short positions on the yen and the euro fell by up to 0.3%, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF fell by about 0.7% and the Agricultural Products Fund fell by 1.85%.

Most industry ETFs in the US rose. The semiconductor ETF rose by 1.45%, hitting a closing record high of $255.86; the utility ETF rose by about 1.3%; the energy sector ETF, global aviation industry ETF, internet stock index ETF, consumer discretionary ETF, global tech stock index ETF, and technology industry ETF all rose by more than 0.2%; the financial industry ETF fell by nearly 0.4%, the banking industry ETF fell by 1.2%, and the regional banking ETF fell by 1.55%.

JP Morgan warned that investors should prepare for market volatility ahead of the Fed's policy statement and US CPI data, due to be released concurrently on Wednesday. Sam Stoval, chief investment strategist at CFRA, said investors were worried about high inflation and that the Fed had not yet taken deep and lasting measures to quell these concerns. It is expected that the market will experience a moderate correction of at least 5% over the next few weeks.

One characteristic of Monday's US stock market was the strong rise of the technology sector, which pushed up the Nasdaq and S&P to new closing highs.

Except for Apple and Tesla, growth tech stocks rose across the board. Alphabet-A rose 0.43%, Microsoft rose 0.95%, and Meta Platforms rose 1.96%. While Apple (AAPL) fell 1.91% on the first day of the launch of its AI function, closing at $193.12, with a market cap of $2.96 trillion, Tesla fell 2.08%.

Chip stocks generally rose. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.42%, breaking through 5300 points to a historical high. The Semiconductor ETF SMH and the Semiconductor Sector ETF SOXX both rose by more than 1.4%, with the latter hitting another closing record high. Nvidia rose by 0.75% to $121.79, approaching the closing historical high of $122.44 set on June 5.

In addition, Intel rose 0.55%, Arm Holdings rose 2.45%, Taiwan Semiconductor's US stocks rose 2.29%, hitting a new closing historical high for the second consecutive trading day. Micron Technology rose more than 2.9%, hitting a new all-time high closing at $134.82, Applied Materials rose by about 2.9%, KLA rose 3.3%, Lam Research rose 4.19%, Cirrus Logic rose 1.7%, Qualcomm and ASML Holding ADR rose about 1.3%, ASM International ADR rose more than 0.8%, while AMD fell 4.49%.

AI concept stocks rose and fell. Astera rose 7.68%, Huyo rose 2.8%, BullFrog AI and SoundHound rose by about 2.6%, CrowdStrike rose nearly 7.29%, Palantir fell 0.8%, c3.ai rose 4.53%, Super Micro Computer rose 2.31%, Dell rose 1.91%, but Oracle fell more than 1.13%, BigBear.ai fell nearly 5.56%, Snowflake fell more than 3.39%, Guardforce AI fell more than 3.6%, and LivePerson fell more than 4.6%.

In the ETFs, generative AI technology ETF rose by 0.84%, robot and AI ETF-GlobalX rose by 0.74%, Nasdaq AI and Robotics ETF rose by 0.68%, AI and Big Data index rose by 0.67%, global robot automation ETF-ROBO rose by 0.44%, and robot and AI ETF-iShares rose by 0.15%.

On the news front, Tesla CEO Musk stated that Tesla will not launch a "redesigned" version of the Model Y this year, and Tesla must respond to the false Autopilot marketing case brought by the California Department of Motor Vehicles. It is reported that at the opening of the 2024 WWDC, investors seem to be disappointed with the content of the "event," as Apple has hardly given any new information, especially around AI. In fact, in the past 10 keynote speeches of Apple, the company's stock price has always performed poorly, with 8 days of decline. Nvidia conducted a 10-for-1 stock split on Monday, adjusting the stock price from last Friday's closing price of $1208.88 to $120.88, with no change in market capitalization, but the lower stock price will attract more retail investors to purchase.

Chinese concept stocks tracked the rise of US large cap indexes. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.20% to 6233.99 points. Among the popular stocks, Weibo rose by about 4.1%,

$Noah Holdings(NOAH.US)$

Among the popular stocks, Weibo rose by about 4.1%, Noah Wealth rose by about 3.4%, Hollysys Automation Technologies rose by 2.6%, Qifu Technology, Kingsoft Cloud, Bilibili, Canadian Solar, New Oriental, Tencent Music, Alibaba, Tal Education, and Miniso rose by more than 1.9%. JD.com, Daqo New Energy, Ctrip, ZTO Express, Vipshop, YATU, NetEase, and JinkoSolar rose by about 0.9% at most; H World Group, Boss Zhipin, and Baidu fell by more than 0.4%, Yum China, Autohome fell by more than 1.5%, Nio fell by about 2.3%, Xpeng fell by 2.7%, Ehang Intelligent and Li Auto fell by about 3.1%.

In the ETF market, the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) rose 0.94%, the Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ) rose 0.76%, the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) rose 0.73%, the Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 ETF (ASHS) rose 0.25%, and the Deutsche Bank db-X Trackers Harvest CSI 300 ETF (ASHR) rose 0.21%.

Other stocks with significant changes include:

Eli Lilly and Co. rose by 1.77%, hitting a new closing high for the third consecutive day;

Berkshire Hathaway class B shares fell 0.7%;

Gamestop fell by 12.01%, continuing its 39.38% decline on the non-farm payroll day;

The NASDAQ Biotechnology Index rose by 0.27%. Prime Medicine rose by 16.90%, Replimune rose by 13.92%, and Geron rose by 9.80%; Pacific Biosciences of California fell by 5.97%, Amarin fell by 6.69%, and Novavax fell by 11.92%.

As French President Macron made a bold move to shake up the market, European stocks tumbled. The STOXX 600 index fell by 0.27% across Europe, with the STOXX 50 index in the Eurozone falling by 0.69%. The FTSE pan-European 300 index fell by 0.29%. Among the 11 Mahatma stocks in Europe, ASML Holding rose by 0.47%, hitting a new closing high for the third consecutive trading day. Novo Nordisk rose by 0.45%, also hitting a new closing high for three consecutive days. LVMH Group fell more than 2%. Outside the 11 Must-Have Stocks, weight loss drug concept stock Zealand Pharma's Copenhagen stock price (ZEAL.DC) rose by 1.38%.

Short-term US Treasury yields were roughly flat, while medium- and long-term Treasury yields rose by more than 16 basis points in the past three days.

At the end of the session, US Treasury yields were mixed. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose by 3.15 basis points to 4.4650%, trading between 4.4394% and 4.4769% during the day, continuing its performance of last week's ("non-farm day") rise, with a cumulative increase of about 18.96 basis points in the past three trading days.

The two-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, fell by 0.85 basis points to 4.8783%, trading between 4.8952% and 4.8678% during the day, holding roughly the low-level rebound of more than 16 basis points on non-farm day.

The 20-year Treasury note yield rose by 3.77 basis points, up 17.30 basis points in the past three days, while the 30-year Treasury note yield rose by 3.73 basis points, up 16.23 basis points in the past three days.

The three-year Treasury yield was roughly flat, while the five-year Treasury yield rose by 1.59 basis points and the seven-year Treasury yield rose by 2.09 basis points.

The spread between three-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury notes rose by 3.691 basis points to -93.764 basis points, while the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury note yields rose by 3.988 basis points to -41.537 basis points. The yield on the 10-year inflation-protected Treasury note (TIPS) rose by about 2.40 basis points to 2.1576%.

French President Macron dissolved parliament, causing investors to worry about the stability risk of the country's (financial) policies. The yield on France's 10-year Treasury notes rose by 12.8 basis points to 3.226%, returning above the 3.2% threshold for the first time since November 27, 2023. The yield has risen 23.9 basis points in the last three trading days. The two-year French bond yield rose by about 6.0 basis points, and the 30-year French bond yield rose by 13.5 basis points.

The yield spread between French and German 10-year Treasury notes widened to 55 basis points, the highest since 2024.

As the benchmark for the eurozone, the 10-year German bond yield rose by 5.0 basis points in recent days, up 15.9 basis points in the past three days, while the two-year German bond yield rose by 0.2 basis points and the 30-year German bond yield rose by 6.8 basis points. The 2/10-year German bond yield spread widened by 4.994 basis points to -41.712 basis points.
The yield on Italy's 10-year Treasury notes rose by 11.4 basis points, Spain's 10-year Treasury notes yield rose by 9.5 basis points, and Greece's 10-year Treasury notes yield rose by 10.3 basis points.

The Bloomberg US dollar index rose 0.10% to 1263.62, with a daily trading range of 1262.34-1266.81 points.

The euro fell 0.40% against the US dollar, the pound sterling rose 0.10% against the US dollar, and the US dollar fell 0.04% against the Swiss franc; Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar rose 0.45% against the US dollar, the New Zealand dollar rose 0.37% against the US dollar, and the US dollar fell 0.06% against the Canadian dollar.

The US dollar closed slightly higher, but the majority of gains in US stocks were erased during intraday trading.

CME futures BTC major contract quoted at $69,900.00, up 0.21% from last Friday's New York closing. CME Ethereum futures DCR main contract quoted at $3,685.50, down 0.73% from last Friday.

Bitcoin surged more than 70,000 US dollars, but then fell back to a nearly flat position due to rising summer fuel demand. WTI crude oil rose by about 3.6%, and European natural gas futures rose by more than 4.3%.

The CME Bitcoin futures BTC main contract was quoted at $69,900.00, up 0.21% from the New York closing price last Friday.

CME Ethereum futures DCR major contract quoted at $3,685.50, down 0.73% from last Friday.

WTI crude oil rose by about 3.6% due to the rise in summer fuel demand, and European natural gas futures rose by more than 4.3%.

Oil prices reversed the three-week consecutive decline and achieved a good start of the week due to the rise in summer fuel demand.

International crude oil futures rose on Monday, with US WTI crude oil rising to a high of $78.29 per barrel, up about $2.76 or 3.65%; Brent crude oil rose to a high of $82.17 per barrel, up about $2.55 or 3.2%.

Finally, WTI July crude oil futures closed up $2.21, up about 3.59%, at $78.24 per barrel. Brent August crude oil futures fell 0.20% to $81.89.

Analysis suggests that although expectations of a Fed rate cut have cooled, the rebound in summer fuel demand and aviation is driving oil demand growth. Goldman Sachs expects a surge in fuel demand to create a deficit of 1.3 million barrels per day in the oil market in Q3, with Brent oil prices expected to rise to $86 per barrel in the period.

As the world emerges from the pandemic and resumes travel on a large scale, global demand for jet aircraft has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels for the first time, with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) expected to set a new record of 4.96 billion passengers this year, driving an increase in oil demand.

In addition, in the European afternoon, the European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures rose 4.38% to 34.550 euros per megawatt hour, while ICE UK natural gas futures rose 4.35% to 81.820 pence per thousand British thermal units. But US July natural gas futures fell 0.41% to $2.906 per million British thermal units.

Spot gold rose more than 0.7%, with London zinc up more than 3%, at least 1.4% higher in London copper and London tin.

COMEX August gold futures rose 0.13% to $2327.95 per ounce at the close. COMEX July silver futures rose 1.38% to $29.825 per ounce at the close.

Spot gold fell to a low of $2287.83 on Monday before rallying, rising by 19.81 or 0.86% to $2313.82 - slightly up from the low of $2286.86 touched on non-farm payroll day. Spot silver rose as much as 2.2% to $29.8205.

Finally, spot gold rose 0.74% to $2310.98 per ounce.

Some analysts believe that Friday's strong US jobs report and news that the People's Bank of China suspended gold purchases hit gold prices hard, with spot gold falling by over 3.7% during the day - the biggest intraday drop since March 2022. Phillip Streible, Chief Market Strategist at Blue Line Futures, said that Friday's sell-off was a bit overdone, and that buyers emerged at relatively low prices, leading to a rebound in the gold price on Monday.

There are also comments that the People's Bank of China's gold buying behavior shows clear cyclical patterns, and that unless the People's Bank of China restarts gold buying, gold prices could stagnate, as the dynamics of China's gold buying are a market focus.

London's industrial metals were mixed in their rise and fall:

Economic barometer 'Copper Doctor' closed up $136 on Monday, up more than 1.39% at $9,899 per tonne, approaching the psychological barrier of $10,000. July COMEX New York copper futures rose 1.61% to $4.5555 per pound, with the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) announcing a drop in copper production at Chile's National Copper Company (Codelco) in April.

London tin closed up $549, up more than 1.74%, at $32,001 per tonne, while London zinc closed up $84, up more than 3.03%, at $2,850 per tonne. London lead closed up $8 at $2,207 per tonne, while London aluminum closed down $6 at $2,572 per tonne and London nickel closed down $140 at $17,891 per tonne.

Editor/Lambor