Global macro
On Monday before the opening, the three major futures fell slightly.
Will the tech stocks cause another wave this week with the heavy release of CPI data and Federal Reserve resolution?
As a new week begins, the market is turning its attention to data such as the June Fed rate decision and key inflation data to be released on Wednesday. The initial value of consumer confidence index in June is expected to be released on Friday. Large technology companies also have many movements, and Nvidia's 10:1 stock split and Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) are both scheduled for Monday. In addition, Tesla CEO Musk's $56 billion pay plan vote is expected to take place on Thursday.
Please use your Citigroup account to access the feature.
Stuart Kaiser, head of Citigroup's US stock trading strategy, said that the options market expects that the two events of the CPI report and the Fed's interest rate decision, which are coming on Wednesday, may cause the S&P 500 index to fluctuate by up to 1.25% that day, which will be the largest amount of market expectation before the Fed's decision since March 2023. In the past year, the expected volatility of the CPI release date and the Fed's decision day by the market is usually 0.75%, so the predicted fluctuation is doubled, reflecting the increased importance of these two events.
The Fed will not cut interest rates this week, and the dot plot is the key.
On Thursday morning, US policymakers will update their interest rate forecasts for the first time in three months. At that time, investors may further understand the Federal Reserve's determination to relax monetary policy. The Federal Reserve led by Chairman Powell is widely expected to keep borrowing costs stable for the seventh consecutive meeting, but officials are uncertain about interest rate forecasts. According to the median estimate of the survey, 41% of economists expect the Fed to issue two rate cuts signals in the highly anticipated 'dot plot', while the same number of economists expect the Fed's forecast to show only one rate cut or no rate cut.
JPMorgan has adjusted the expected time of the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve from July to November.
After strong-than-expected non-farm payrolls data was released, Morgan Stanley economists adjusted the expected time of the Fed's first rate cut from July to November. Chief economist Michael Feroli wrote in a report on Friday that the bank now expects the Fed to reduce interest rates for the first time in November, and then reduce interest rates once a quarter next year. The report said that "the possibility of a rate cut in July looks slim, and the weak household survey report may indeed affect employment data from now until the September rate meeting. However, considering the recent trend of employment growth, it may take five employment reports to pass the test."
Macron and Scholz are both in trouble, and the euro and European stock markets are falling together.
In last week's European elections, French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz were defeated by far-right parties, causing the euro to fall to its lowest level in a month after Macron called for early legislative elections at home. In addition, European stock markets collectively fell. As of press time, the European Stoxx index fell 1.2%, and eurozone blue chips fell 1.2%. The French CAC40 index fell 2%, hitting its lowest level in more than three months.
Hot news
Star technology stocks rise and fall before trading.
Nvidia started trading at split-adjusted prices on Monday.
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$It fell slightly before the opening and was quoted at $120.69/share as of press time today (June 10, US Eastern Time). From today (June 10), Nvidia's stock will trade at prices adjusted for a 10:1 stock split. The overall value of Nvidia is expected to remain unchanged after the split, and cheaper stock prices will make it easier for investors to reach.
Apple is finally going to make big moves! WWDC conference opens tonight, and the AI storm is coming in strong.
$Apple (AAPL.US)$The 35th WWDC conference will be held from June 10th to June 14th in the US Eastern Time zone, and the opening keynote event will be held at 10:00 am Pacific Time on June 10th (1am Beijing Time on June 11th). Mark Gurman, a well-known Apple whistleblower and tech journalist, revealed that Apple does not plan to release any new hardware products at this year's WWDC conference, but will focus entirely on upcoming software updates. Among them, the focus of the keyword is still on "AI".
Kuo Ming-chi: After the release of iOS 18, Apple will no longer be seen as a laggard in the AI industry.
Kuo Ming-chi said that Apple will release multiple artificial intelligence functions at the WWDC developer conference, integrating powerful AI functions into all aspects of its operating system and applications. Although he is skeptical about whether the iPhone's new models and their supporting operating systems to be released in the fall will stimulate the wave of user replacement, he still expects Apple's strong investment in machine learning and artificial intelligence in recent years to pay off in the future. Kuo Ming-chi concluded that after the WWDC, Apple will no longer be seen as a laggard in the AI industry, and the improvement of Siri is one of the biggest selling points.
On Thursday, Musk will re-enact "Demand for Salary".
On Thursday, Eastern Time (Friday, June 14th at 4:30 a.m. Beijing time),$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The shareholder meeting of 2024 will be held, and one closely watched item is the vote on CEO Musk's $56 billion compensation plan. Tesla Chairman Robyn Denholm urged shareholders to approve Musk's compensation plan and warned that if Musk's compensation is not approved, he may leave Tesla. Tesla executives also jointly issued a statement, saying that without Musk, Tesla would be just an ordinary car company.
Gamestop rebounds more than 7% before the market opens.
$GameStop (GME.US)$Up more than 7% before the market opens, after falling more than 39% the previous trading day. On Friday, June 7, Eastern Time, Keith Gill, the "leader of retail investors," mentioned in a live broadcast that Gamestop is the only position in his investment portfolio, "my aggressive investment style is almost certainly not suitable for netizens." The screenshots he shared included 5 million shares of Gamestop common stock and 120,000 call options. Gamestop unexpectedly announced its first quarter results four days before the live broadcast. In the quarter, net sales were $881.8 million, a year-on-year decrease of 29%, which is lower than the expected range of $900 million to $1.09 billion on Wall Street.
Occidental Petroleum rose more than 1% before the market opens, Buffett increased holdings again.
$Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$Up 1.48% before the market opens, reported at $60.14. On the news, Berkshire Hathaway, a subsidiary of Buffett, once again increased its holdings of the company's common stock after a four-month hiatus. According to SEC documents, between June 5th and June 7th, Berkshire Hathaway purchased approximately 2.6 million shares of Occidental Petroleum common stock. Berkshire Hathaway currently holds approximately 250.6 million shares of Occidental Petroleum common stock.
Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.
Most popular China concept stocks rose before the market opens.
During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday in 2024, there were a total of 110 million domestic tourists in China.
During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday in 2024, the overall national cultural and tourism market is stable and orderly. According to the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the total number of domestic tourism trips in the country was 110 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%; the total amount spent by domestic tourists was 40.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%.
Xiaomi denies the rumor of a 20,000 subsidy for buying the SU7.
Recently there have been rumors about Xiaomi.$Xiaomi Corp. (XIACF.US)$SU7 has a great discount, directly subsidizing 20,000 yuan, and you can get the car with 200,000 yuan. In response, Wang Hua, the general manager of the public relations department of Xiaomi Group, forwarded the news and refuted it, saying:"I just saw this screenshot in some groups, which is ridiculous. It can be confirmed that there is neither such a policy nor such a contract. Please be informed!"
Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.
Reminder for US Macro Events
(All in Peking Time)
The U.S. May Conference Board Employment Trends Index at 22:00
The U.S. May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations at 23:00
The U.S. 3-month Treasury bond auction-winning interest rate until June 10
Apple will hold the 35th Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) online from June 11th to 15th.
Editor/new