Incident: The company released its 2024 quarterly report. In the first quarter of 2024, it achieved operating income of 99.09 billion yuan, -7.19% year over year, -42.07% month-on-month, net profit of -5258 billion yuan, 23Q1 of -4804 billion yuan, and 2023Q4 of -5593 billion yuan. Overall performance was in line with expectations.
24Q1 revenue declined month-on-month. The 5566 model contributed mainly to sales volume: 24Q1's automobile sales revenue was 8.381 billion yuan, -9.1% year-on-year, -45.7% month-on-month, and vehicle deliveries reached 301,000 units, -3.2% year-on-year and -39.9% month-on-month. The month-on-month decline was mainly affected by seasonal factors. In 24Q1, NIO ET5, ET5T, EC6, and ES6 sold 0.48, 0.64, 0.42, and 10,700 units, respectively, accounting for 16%, 21%, 14%, and 35% of sales, respectively, accounting for 87% of total sales, contributing to the main source of sales. Bicycle revenue for 24Q1 was 278,000 yuan, year-on-year -19,000 yuan, and month-on-month - 310,000 yuan. It is expected to be due to factors such as an increase in the share of the company's low-priced models and adjustments in user rights.
Gross margin improved year on year, and cost control was effective: 24Q1 company's comprehensive gross margin was 4.9%, +3.3 pct year on year, -2.6 pct month on month; automobile gross margin was 9.2%, +4.2 pct year on year, and -3.0 pct month on month.
The year-on-year increase in gross margin was mainly due to a decrease in unit material costs. The month-on-month decline was mainly due to a decrease in average sales price due to increased discounts during product changeover, changes in product portfolio, and partly offset by a decrease in unit material costs. On the cost side, 24Q1 R&D expenses/sales, general and administrative expenses were respectively $2,86/3.0 billion, -6.9%/+22.5% YoY, and -27.9%/-24.6% month-on-month. Cost control was effective.
The release of the Ledao L60 is expected to boost sales: the company expects a total delivery range of 54-56,000 units in 24Q2, up 129.6%-138.1% year on year; the total revenue range is 166-17.1 billion yuan, up 89%-95% year on year. The company's sales and revenue are expected to increase in the second quarter. On May 15, the company launched the Ledao brand and unveiled the first model, the L60, with a pre-sale price of 21,900 yuan, and will be officially launched in September. We believe that the Ledao L60 model has comprehensive market competitiveness in various aspects such as space, energy supplementation, and three-electric systems, which is expected to further expand the company's market coverage and drive the company's high sales growth.
Profit forecast and valuation: In 2024-2026, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 776.19/1103.54/135.902 billion yuan, and realized net profit to mother of -159.18/-108.89/-5574 billion yuan.
Risk warning: The release of new technology falls short of expectations; the penetration rate of the new energy market falls short of expectations; competition in the automotive industry intensifies, etc.