Changan Automobile's year-on-year sales growth rate in May was better than the industry average. Changan Automobile's overall sales volume in May 2024 was 206,800 units, up 3.3% year on year and down 1.6% month on month; cumulative overall sales volume in January-May was 1.109 million units, up 12.0% year on year. According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Transport Federation, wholesale/retail sales in the national passenger car market were +0%/-3% year-on-year respectively in May, and Changan Automobile's sales growth rate in May was better than the industry average.
Independent brand sales continued to grow in May, deepening and speeding up the Thai market. Changan's own-brand passenger car sales in May were 123,200 units, up 1.3% year on year and 0.1% month on month; cumulative sales volume from January to May was 683,600 units, up 8.5% year on year. Overseas sales of independent brands in May were 33,300 units, up 72.9% year on year and 5.2% month on month; cumulative sales volume from January to May was 173,900 units, up 80.8% year on year. In May, own-brand new energy sales were 55,000 units, up 87.8% year on year, up 6.4% month on month; cumulative sales volume from January to May was 235,500 units, up 72.7% year on year. Changan Qiyuan delivered 13,600 vehicles in May, an increase of 14.6% over the previous month, and delivered a total of 57,800 vehicles in January-May. Changan Qiyuan A07, A05, and Q05 are expected to be upgraded in the second half of the year and the Changan Qiyuan E07 will be launched; by 2025, Changan Qiyuan is expected to launch 10 new digitally advanced automotive products, including the C798, C657, C390 and B216, to the global market. Deep Blue delivered 14,400 vehicles in May, up 12.8% from the previous month. A total of 67,200 vehicles were delivered in January-May. The Deep Blue G318 model is expected to be launched in June. Avita delivered 4,569 vehicles in May, up 162.9% year on year, down 12.9% month on month. In January-May, 24,300 vehicles were delivered, up 170.8% year on year.
On May 10, Avita's third new product, the Avita 07, was unveiled. The new car is positioned as a mid-size SUV. It is expected to have both pure electric and extended-range power forms (using the extended range version for the first time, and it is expected that the Avita 11 and 12 will increase the range version within the year). The estimated price is 25-350,000 yuan. In terms of going overseas, Changan joined hands with the Thai industrial chain, and the development of localization continues to accelerate. In November 2023, Changan entered the Thai market, radiated the global right-hand drive market, and began construction of the first overseas base in Rayong Province, Thailand. The base is expected to be officially put into use in January 2025, with an initial production capacity of 100,000 units, then expanded to 200,000 units. More than 600 local employees will be employed in 2024, and the localization rate will exceed 80%. The localization rate is expected to reach 90% by 2026. Under the guidance of the “Haina Baichuan” program, Changan Thailand continues to develop locally. It is expected to introduce at least 15 new products by 2030 to open up the Thai and Southeast Asian automobile markets and open up room for overseas growth.
The company became the first batch of L3 intelligent connected vehicle pilot units in the country. On June 13, 2024, four departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology researched and identified 9 consortia that have entered the pilot project for intelligent connected vehicle access and road traffic. Changan Automobile became the first batch of L3 class intelligent connected vehicle pilot units in the country. The L3 Traffic Congestion Autonomous Driving System (TJP) pilot equipped with the SL03i declared by the company is a landmark achievement of Changan Automobile's “Beidou Tianshu” intelligent strategy. It reflects the company's deep accumulation in the field of autonomous driving technology, and is optimistic about the company's “electric intelligence” transformation process.
Net profit due to mother for 2024-2026 is estimated at 89.02, 10.704, and 11.814 billion yuan, maintaining a comparable 24-year average PE valuation of 22 times, and a target price of 19.8 yuan, maintaining the purchase rating.
Risk warning
Changan Ford's sales fell short of expectations, Changan Mazda's sales fell short of expectations, Changan's own brand sales fell short of expectations, and the industry's price war affected profits.