Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues were US$509m, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.76 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 18%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings from 15 analysts is for revenues of US$2.27b in 2025. If met, it would imply a reasonable 5.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$3.26, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.27b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.23 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The consensus price target rose 11% to US$98.00despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' earnings by assigning a price premium. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$110 and the most bearish at US$64.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 7.4% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 8.3% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 11% per year. So although Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You can also see our analysis of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.