Next week's outlook: The Fed's biggest focus is the 'dot plot'! Predictions for the latest trends in the US dollar, Japanese yen, British pound, and Australian dollar.

FX168 · Jun 8 17:01

在意外强劲的美国5月非农就业报告出炉后，交易员不再预估美国于12月前有百分百机会降息，下周的美联储6月决议将最新点阵图，将对下半年的政策路径带来指引，值得一提的是，美国5月CPI在美联储决定前几小时发布，美元恐提前行动。除此之外，日本央行下周是否加息、英国数据以及中国通胀数据等也是市场不容忽略的要点。

下周市场的关键亮点：

1. 美国CPI数据和美联储决定美元命运

2. 日本央行是否会暗示即将加息？

3. 英镑交易员关注英国就业和GDP数据

4. 在澳大利亚就业和中国CPI数据前，澳洲联储加息预期缩减

小心点阵图

由于4月美国通胀恢复下行趋势，5月ISM制造业PMI令人失望，投资者坚信美联储今年会开始降息。在非农数据公布后，市场目前仅预测今年加息一次，首次降息可能是在11月。

因此，当他们试图弄清楚美联储官员何时会按下降息按钮时，交易员可能会将目光锁定在下周三的联邦公开市场委员会决定上。这将是一次伴随更新经济预测和新的点阵图的重要会议。

考虑到政策制定者的“高利率持续更长时间”口号，市场参与者几乎确定联邦市场公开委员会(FOMC)不会在这次会议上采取行动。因此，焦点将放在声明和特别是新的利率预测上。3月的预测显示今年会有三次25个基点的降息，2025年再有三次。

因此，由于大多数政策制定者表示，他们并不急于开始降低借贷成本，因此有可能出现向上修正。然而，即使中位数显示今年有两次降息，可能也不足以提振美元，因为市场已经预期到这一点。要想美元强劲反弹，大多数美联储官员需要仅预测一次25个基点的降息。

5月的美国CPI数据将在美联储决定前几小时发布，如果通胀粘性较强，可能会让美元多头提前开始行动，即使美联储的决定未能满足他们的预期。毕竟，市场参与者会意识到CPI数据此次不会被纳入政策制定者的预测。美联储主席鲍威尔可能在新闻发布会上被问及这些数据。PPI数据定于周四发布。

日本央行下次加息是什么时候？

下周五，央行的火炬将传递到日本央行。在4月26日的最新会议上，日本央行保持基准利率区间在0%到0.1%之间，符合预期。尽管日本央行上调通胀预测，但没有减少债券购买，也没有强烈暗示即将再次加息。这导致日元走弱，随后几天日本当局进行了两次干预。

然而，日元在干预后不久继续下滑，一季度经济收缩超出预期，为下一次加息带来障碍。投资者仍认为7月再加息10个基点的概率为67%，但如果日本央行没有明确传达这一点，交易员可能会失望，日元可能会进一步下滑并重新测试近期低点。

英国就业和GDP数据将动摇英镑

下周，英镑可能成为焦点，因为英国就业报告和4月的月度GDP数据将分别于周二和周三发布。

4月英国通胀高于预期，尤其是基础价格压力持续存在，这使投资者减少对英国央行降息的预期。目前，市场预计到12月降息约40个基点，9月首次降息的概率为65%。

如果又一个月的工资增长保持高位，且GDP数据证实英国经济在二季度初表现稳健，9月降息的概率可能会降低，从而提振英镑。

尽管如此，由于7月4日的选举临近，英镑交易员可能会更加谨慎。工党将自己描述为财政责任的政党，如果他们获胜，可能会使英国央行的工作变得更容易，从而比目前预期的更早降息。

中国通胀，澳大利亚就业，欧盟选举

此外，中国的CPI和PPI数据定于周三发布，澳大利亚的就业报告定于周四发布。

尽管澳大利亚第一季度低于预期的GDP数据消除了对澳大利亚央行加息的少数押注，但澳洲联储仍被视为主要央行中最鹰派的央行之一，因为投资者认为该央行今年降息25个基点的可能性只有50%。

因此，澳大利亚就业反弹可能会提振澳元，因为投资者对澳大利亚央行今年不太可能降息变得更加有信心。

还需提及的是，本周日是欧盟议会选举的最后一天。尽管结果可能不会对金融市场产生重大影响，但右翼支持的激增可能会使立法者更难达成协议并推动赋予欧盟更多权力的改革和政策，这可能会对欧元产生一定压力。

编辑/emily

After the unexpectedly strong release of the May non-farm payrolls report in the US, traders no longer estimate a 100% chance of a rate cut by the US before December. The Federal Reserve’s June decision next week will provide guidance on the policy path for the second half of the year through its latest dot plot. It is worth mentioning that the US May CPI was released a few hours before the Fed’s decision, and the dollar may take action earlier. In addition, the Bank of Japan's decision next week whether to raise interest rates, UK data and China's inflation data are also key points that the market cannot ignore.

Key highlights for the market next week:

1. US CPI data and the Federal Reserve's decision determine the fate of the dollar.

2. Will the Bank of Japan suggest an interest rate hike soon?

3. British pound traders focus on UK employment and GDP data.

4. Prior to Australian employment and China's CPI data, the Australian Reserve Bank reduced its rate hike expectations.

Be careful about the dot plot.

Due to the downward trend in US inflation recovery in April and the disappointing May ISM manufacturing PMI, investors believe that the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates this year. After the release of non-farm payrolls data, the market is currently predicting only one interest rate hike this year, and the first rate cut may be in November. Therefore, when traders try to figure out when Fed officials will press the rate cut button, they may focus on the Federal Open Market Committee's decision on Wednesday next week. This will be an important meeting accompanied by updated economic forecasts and a new dot plot.Considering the policy makers' slogan of "higher interest rates for a longer period of time", market participants are almost certain that the Federal Market Open Committee (FOMC) will not take action at this meeting. Therefore, the focus will be on the statement and especially the new rate forecast. The March forecast showed that there would be three 25 basis point interest rate cuts this year and another three in 2025.Therefore, due to the fact that most policy makers have stated that they are not eager to start lowering borrowing costs, it is possible that there will be an upward adjustment. However, even if the median shows two interest rate cuts this year, it may not be enough to boost the dollar, as the market has already expected this. For most Federal Reserve officials to predict only one 25 basis point rate cut, the dollar needs to rebound strongly.

Next week's Federal Open Market Committee decision may be crucial to traders as they try to figure out when Fed officials will cut rates. This will be an important meeting accompanied by updated economic and a new dot plot forecasts.

Market participants are almost certain that the Federal Market Open Committee (FOMC) will not take action at this meeting. Therefore, the focus will be on the statement and especially the new rate forecast. The March forecast showed that there would be three 25 basis point interest rate cuts this year and another three in 2025.

Therefore, due to the fact that most policy makers have stated that they are not eager to start lowering borrowing costs, it is possible that there will be an upward adjustment. However, even if the median shows two interest rate cuts this year, it may not be enough to boost the dollar, as the market has already expected this. For most Federal Reserve officials to predict only one 25 basis point rate cut, the dollar needs to rebound strongly.

The May US CPI data will be released a few hours before the Federal Reserve meeting. If inflation is sticky, it may cause the dollar bulls to start early, even if the Fed's decision does not meet their expectations. After all, market participants will realize that the CPI data will not be included in the policy makers' forecasts. Fed Chairman Powell may be asked about this data at the press conference. PPI data is scheduled to be released on Thursday.The Bank of Japan will raise interest rates next time?On Friday next week, the torch will be passed to the Bank of Japan. At its latest meeting on April 26, the Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate range between 0% and 0.1%, as expected. Although the Bank of Japan raised its inflation forecast, it did not reduce bond purchases or strongly suggest another interest rate hike. This led to a weakening of the yen, and Japanese authorities intervened twice in the following days.

When will the Bank of Japan raise interest rates next time?

Next Friday, the torch will be passed to the Bank of Japan. At its latest meeting on April 26, the Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate range between 0% and 0.1%, as expected. Although the Bank of Japan raised its inflation forecast, it did not reduce bond purchases or strongly suggest another interest rate hike. This led to a weakening of the yen, and Japanese authorities intervened twice in the following days.

However, shortly after the intervention, the yen continued to fall. Economic contraction in the first quarter exceeded expectations, which brought obstacles to the next interest rate hike. Investors still believe that the probability of another 10 basis point rate hike in July is 67%. However, if the Bank of Japan does not clearly convey this, traders may be disappointed, and the yen may fall further and retest recent lows.

UK employment and GDP data will shake the British pound.

Next week, the British pound may become the focus as the UK employment report and the monthly GDP data for April will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.

Inflation in April was higher than expected in the UK, especially as the underlying price pressures continued, which reduced investors' expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England. Currently, the market expects a rate cut of about 40 basis points in December, with a 65% probability of the first rate cut in September.

If another month of high wage growth is maintained and GDP data confirms that the UK economy has performed steadily in early Q2, the probability of a rate cut in September may decrease, thereby boosting the pound.

However, as the July 4 election approaches, pound traders may be more cautious. The Labor Party describes itself as a financially responsible party, and if they win, they may make the Bank of England's job easier, leading to a rate cut earlier than expected.

China's inflation, Australia's employment, EU elections.

In addition, China's CPI and PPI data are scheduled to be released on Wednesday, and Australia's employment report is scheduled to be released on Thursday.

Although Australia's GDP data for the first quarter was lower than expected, which eliminated a few bets on the Reserve Bank of Australia raising interest rates, the RBA is still considered one of the most hawkish central banks among major central banks, as investors believe that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut this year is only 50%.

Therefore, a rebound in Australia's employment may boost the Australian dollar as investors become more confident that the RBA is unlikely to cut rates this year.

It should also be noted that Sunday is the last day of the European Parliament elections. Although the results may not have a significant impact on the financial markets, the surge in support for the right may make it more difficult for legislators to reach agreements and push for reforms and policies that give more power to the EU, which may put some pressure on the euro.

Editor/Emily

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

下周展望：美联储最大爆点是“点阵图”！美元、日元、英镑、澳元最新走势预测

Next week's outlook: The Fed's biggest focus is the 'dot plot'! Predictions for the latest trends in the US dollar, Japanese yen, British pound, and Australian dollar.

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