数据公布后，美债利率上升，美元走强，黄金价格下跌，反映出金融市场对当前金融条件的紧缩预期。美联储在三季度可能迎来降息的关键窗口期，但若市场过度预期降息，可能反而推迟降息的到来。因此，中金海外认为，美联储仍具备降息能力，但市场需警惕过度预期降息带来的风险。Source: CICC Overseas.
The divergence between non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate is due to differences in survey methods. The actual unemployment rate of 3.96% is not much different from the expected 3.9%.
According to CICC Overseas analysis, non-farm employment data in the United States in May far exceeded expectations, with an increase of 270,000 new jobs, a year-on-year increase in wages of 4.1%, a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, all exceeding expectations. However, the small rise in the unemployment rate to 4% is not a signal of a weak job market, but is due to more people leaving the labor force, resulting in a decline in labor force participation rate and an increase in wage levels. The divergence between non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate is due to differences in survey methods. The actual unemployment rate of 3.96% is not much different from the expected 3.9%.
After the data was released, the yields of US Treasury bonds rose, the US dollar strengthened, and the price of gold fell, reflecting the market's expectation of tight financial conditions. The Federal Reserve may face a key window for interest rate cuts in the third quarter, but if the market over-expects a rate cut, it may instead delay its implementation. Therefore, Zhongjin Overseas believes that the Federal Reserve still has the ability to cut interest rates, but the market should be wary of the risks of over-expecting a rate cut.
The views of Zhongjin Overseas are as follows:
May non-farm data far exceeded expectations, with an increase of 270,000 (expected 180,000, previous value 175,000), and wages also exceeded expectations and rose (year-on-year 4.1%, previous value 4%, month-on-month 0.4%, previous value 0.2%). This data once again proves that the 'reverse prediction' effect of ADP employment, not only in direction, but also in whether it exceeds expectations, is completely opposite.
The only thing that confuses everyone is the rise in the unemployment rate to 4% (previous value 3.9%). But the rise in this data does not indicate poor employment, in fact it is due to a decrease in the denominator (that is, more people leaving the workforce), rather than a significant increase in the number of unemployed. Therefore, labor force participation rate decreased and wages rose.
Non-farm data and the unemployment rate use different survey methods. Non-farm data comes from institutional surveys, while the unemployment rate and wages come from household surveys. The difference between the actual unemployment rate of 3.96% (expected 3.9%, with a possible difference of only 0.2%-0.6%).
After the data was released, US Treasury bond yields rose to 4.4%, the US dollar approached 105, and the price of gold fell sharply. This data once again shows that financial conditions are still not tight enough, they need to be tightened to suppress demand and promote interest rate cuts. Therefore, the less expected the interest rate cut, the more likely it is to be implemented, and the more trading the interest rate cut is, the more it will lead to a delay in the implementation of the interest rate cut.
How to tighten financial conditions? US Treasury bond yields rise, the US dollar strengthens, and US stocks and commodities fall.
The Federal Reserve can still cut interest rates. The third quarter is a critical window, and it will be more difficult to handle the tail inflation and election issues in the fourth quarter. However, if the market gambles too early again, we should also consider the risk that interest rates cannot be cut this year.
Editor/Lambor