The three major US stock indexes fell slightly, as of press time, the Nasdaq fell 0.27%, the S&P 500 fell 0.1%, and the Dow Jones fell 0.04%.

As of Thursday's close this week, the Dow rose 0.52%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.43%, and the Nasdaq index rose 2.62%.

The chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research, Ed Clissold, said, "US stocks have been performing well so far this year, and there is not much reason to exit yet. The first quarter earnings season is coming to an end, with more than 80% of companies exceeding expectations. It looks like earnings growth will accelerate in the second quarter. We see economic slowing, but no immediate recession. The excessive optimism we saw in March has largely been resolved."

He added, "It is very likely that this is a bull market, but of course this can also be discussed."

Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of the wealth management department of Morgan Stanley, said that the US stock market will continue to rise in the second half of 2024, although the pace of growth will slow down after achieving double-digit growth since January this year.

Investors welcomed the highly anticipated non-farm employment data for May on Friday.

The US Labor Department reported that the number of non-farm jobs in the US increased by 272,000 in May, far exceeding market expectations of 180,000 and the average analyst expectation of 190,000 surveyed by Dow Jones.

The unemployment rate in May rose to 4%, which was higher than the expected 3.90% and the previous value of 3.90%, marking the first time it has risen to this level in more than two years.

The year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wages was 4.1%, higher than the expected and previous values of 3.9%, and the month-on-month growth rate rebounded from 0.2% last month to 0.4%, with the expected value being 0.3%.

The report also revised the March non-farm employment increase from 315,000 to 310,000; and the April non-farm employment increase from 175,000 to 165,000. After these revisions, the total number of new jobs added in March and April decreased by 15,000 compared to the unrevised data.

The report shows that in May, several industries in the US employment market showed strong growth momentum. Among them, medical care, government departments, leisure and hotel industries have become the main engines of employment growth. The employment in the professional and business services sector has also increased significantly, hitting the highest increase since the beginning of the year.

Analysts said that the surge in US employment growth in May and the unexpected rise in unemployment rates indicate mixed conditions in the labor market. They pointed out that the number of non-farm jobs increased beyond the expectations of economists. The unemployment rate rose from 3.9% to 4%, reaching this level for the first time in more than two years.

After the report was released, investors became increasingly cautious about the Fed's ability to cut interest rates later this year.

After the announcement of the May non-farm employment data, the probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates until August has greatly increased.

According to the "Fed Watch" tool of CME Group: the probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in June is 97.6%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.4%. The probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates until August is 91.1% (compared to 78.5% before the non-farm payroll announcement), the probability of cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 8.8% (compared to 22.0% before the non-farm payroll announcement), and the probability of cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.1% (compared to 0.5% before the non-farm payroll announcement).

The market is discussing the May non-farm employment data, and it is expected that the Fed will not cut interest rates in September.

Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, said that the increase of 272,000 in non-farm employment in May is a hot number, but the part that the Fed is most interested in is the average hourly wage data, which has risen to an annual rate of 4.1%.

Peter Cardillo said, "In short, this is a strong report, which indicates that there is no sign of a collapse in the labor market. This is good for the economy and corporate profits, but it is a negative factor for the prospects of the earliest rate cut in September. This report may eliminate the hope of a rate cut in September and delay the rate cut time until December. We will wait quietly for CPI data next Wednesday."

"Given today's strong report, the CPI data to be released next week will be the focus of attention," said Eric Merlis, Managing Director and Co-Head of Global Markets at Citizens Financial Group.

As market participants try to predict the timing of the Fed's interest rate adjustment, everyone's attention will continue to focus on inflation data. Today's report does not increase the urgency of the Fed's imminent rate cut, and next week's non-farm payroll may bring different news.

State Street analyst Marvin Loh said: "Any concerns about the July rate cut have now been quickly dispelled. The job market is still running at full speed, giving the Fed time to assess whether the weakness seen in other data will lead to a slowing of summer employment growth."

Pepperstone senior research strategist Michael Brown said:"The US May employment report was mixed. The report overall contained hawkish leanings, with recruitment continuing to grow rapidly, and corporate profits growing faster than expected, up 0.4% percent on a month-on-month basis and 4.1% percent on a year-on-year basis. This suggests that the labor market is still relatively tight overall. Overall, the May employment report is unlikely to change the Fed's policy outlook. As expected, members of the Federal Open Market Committee continue to focus more on inflation aspects of their dual mandate and may reiterate next week that they have not gained the confidence people are seeking."

Analyst Enda Curran commented:"It is not difficult to draw the conclusion from these numbers: the Fed will not cut interest rates in July. More difficult, strong employment data is not synchronized with other data, such as weakening consumer spending, which suggests that the economy is slowing."

Principal Asset Management Global Chief Strategist Seema Shah said:"This report weakens the message that recent economic data has conveyed about a cooling US economy. Not only is employment growth booming again, but wage growth has also unexpectedly picked up, both of which run counter to the direction the Fed needs to start loosening policy. We still expect the Fed to cut interest rates in September, but if data like today's comes out again, it may well not cut interest rates. However, the positive news is that with the labor market so strong, the US economy is still far from recession."

The European Central Bank's first rate cut since 2019 on Thursday added pressure on the Fed to ease policy.

The Fed will hold a policy meeting on June 11-12. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, federal funds futures trading data indicates that the Fed is likely to keep rates stable this time.

Focus stocks

Growth tech stocks fluctuated, with Nvidia and ASML Holding falling more than 1%.

China concept stocks rose and fell, with Taiwan Semiconductor rising more than 2% and Alibaba and Baidu falling around 1%.

Golden industrial concept stocks fell across the board, with Harmony Gold Mining falling more than 8%, AngloGold and Agnico Eagle Mining falling more than 5%, and Newmont Mining and Gold Fields falling more than 4%.

$GameStop (GME.US)$GameStop opened down nearly 20%, and after several trading halts due to significant fluctuations in the stock price, it is now down nearly 19%. Q1 revenue for GameStop was $882 million, lower than the $1.237 billion for the same period last year and lower than the estimated $995.5 million.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Nvidia fell more than 1%, with data showing that Nvidia's short position was equivalent to that of Apple and Tesla combined.

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Taiwan Semiconductor rose more than 2%, with Goldman Sachs saying that Nvidia endorses Taiwan Semiconductor's demand for price increases.

$Li Auto (LI.US)$It confirmed that the retail and delivery departments would be merged, with shares up more than 2%.

Editor/Emily