Incident: Changan Automobile announced sales volume for May. In May, Changan Automobile achieved sales of 207,000 vehicles, +3.3% year over year and -1.6% month over month. Among them, Changan's own brand sold 1.71 million units, +4.7% year over year, -1.0% month on month; autonomous passenger car sales volume was 123,000 units, +1.3% year over year, and +0.1% month on month. In addition, in May, independent brands sold 33,000 units overseas, +72.9% YoY, +5.2% month-on-month; self-branded NEVs sold 55,000 units, +87.8% YoY, +6.4% month-on-month. From January to May 2024, Changan Automobile achieved cumulative vehicle sales of 1.109 million units, +12.0% year on year; cumulative sales volume of its own brands of 932,000 units, +11.6% year on year; cumulative sales of autonomous passenger vehicles of 684,000 units, +8.5% year on year; sales volume of its own brand overseas sales volume of 174,000 units, +80.8% year on year; and total sales of its own brand of new energy vehicles were 23.5 vehicles, +72.7% year over year.
Delivery volumes of Deep Blue and Qiyuan increased month-on-month, and various new Dark Blue and Avita cars were unveiled. 1) Deep Blue delivered 14,371 vehicles in May, +109.8% year over year and +12.8% month on month. On May 15, the Deep Blue S05 debuted; on May 17, the new Deep Blue L07 car was revealed. As of May 22, the Deep Blue G318 car has arrived at various order centers across the country, and a test drive experience can begin. 2) In May, Changan Qiyuan delivered 13,557 vehicles, +14.6% month-on-month, and plans to launch 10 new ace digital intelligence products, including the C798 and C390, globally in 2025. 3) In May, Avita delivered 4,569 vehicles, +162.9% year over year and -12.9% month on month. On May 10, the Avita 07 was unveiled. It has two power forms: pure electric and range-extended, and has two driving forms: rear-wheel drive and four-wheel drive. On May 19, Avita Hi-Tech Auto 012 was officially announced.
Overseas markets are expanding rapidly; Changan Automobile became the first batch of L3 intelligent connected vehicle pilot units. 1) In terms of exports, in November of last year, Changan Automobile held a Southeast Asian brand conference in Bangkok, officially entering the Thai market, and laid the foundation stone for the first overseas base, Thailand's new energy base, in Rayong Province, Thailand. It is expected to be officially put into use in the first quarter of 2025, with an initial output of 100,000 units, and later expanded to 200,000 units; in 2024, it will hire more than 600 local employees, a localization rate of over 80%, and reach 90% in 2026. In addition, the company simultaneously set up Changan Automobile Southeast Asia and Changan Thailand sales in Thailand Three local companies, Changan Thai Parts Co., Ltd. At the recent Bangkok Auto Show, Deep Blue L07 and S07 surpassed 3,000 orders. At the same time, the S07 won the top spot in Thailand's BEV sales list in April, an increase of 90.9% over the previous month. Additionally, Avita has unveiled its dual flagship models, the Avita 11 and Avita 12, in Thailand. 2) In terms of intelligence, on June 4, Changan Automobile became the first batch of L3 intelligent connected vehicle pilot units. The L3 Traffic Congestion Autonomous Driving System (TJP) equipped with the SL03i declared by Changan Automobile is a major breakthrough in intelligent driving technology.
The system has functions such as dynamic driving task execution, dynamic driving task backup, and human-computer interaction. At the same time, it can also conditionally enable L3 level autonomous driving mode for traffic congestion scenarios at high speeds and urban expressways, which reduces driving fatigue while effectively improving the driving experience.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We maintain the company's profit forecast. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 81.86, 102.77, and 12.639 billion yuan, corresponding to PE of 16, 13, and 10 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Market price competition exceeds expectations, the company's new energy transformation falls short of expectations, the company's intelligent process falls short of expectations, and the company's new car sales volume falls short of expectations.