It's not a stretch to say that Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s (NYSE:MLM) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16.1x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in the United States, where the median P/E ratio is around 17x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.
With its earnings growth in positive territory compared to the declining earnings of most other companies, Martin Marietta Materials has been doing quite well of late. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company's earnings will be less resilient moving forward. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
Does Growth Match The P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like Martin Marietta Materials' to be considered reasonable.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 120%. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 181% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 8.5% per year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 10.0% per year, which paints a poor picture.
With this information, we find it concerning that Martin Marietta Materials is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.
The Bottom Line On Martin Marietta Materials' P/E
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that Martin Marietta Materials currently trades on a higher than expected P/E for a company whose earnings are forecast to decline. When we see a poor outlook with earnings heading backwards, we suspect share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
You need to take note of risks, for example - Martin Marietta Materials has 3 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Martin Marietta Materials. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.