USDA will release the June supply and demand report at 0:00 on Wednesday, June 13th, Beijing time (click here to view the Jinxin Futures Calendar). Market analysis points out that there has been no extreme weather during the current soybean planting period, and the planting progress is good. The predicted data adjustment for the new US soybeans in the June report will be limited. However, if the report lowers the yield forecast for US beans based on the higher probability of La Niña in the third quarter, the impact of the report on US bean prices may be biased towards bulls.

For South America, special attention needs to be given to the adjustment of Brazil and Argentina's old soybean production (2023/24). Institutions such as Bloomberg and Reuters have all expected USDA to lower its estimates of Brazil and Argentina's soybean production in the June report. If the reduction exceeds market expectations, the report's impact may be biased towards bears.

Institutional outlook on USDA's June supply and demand report.

Huatai Futures: Expect soybean meal prices to remain strong in the short term with volatile operation.

According to foreign media reports, recent good dry weather will greatly help speed up harvesting. Argentina's soybean production for 2023/24 is expected to increase by 1% to 49.4 million tons, estimated to be in the range of 48.6-51 million. Afterward, it is still necessary to focus on the inventory and start-up situation of oil refineries, changes in flat price rates, and the weather's impact on North and South America. Flat price rates still have support, and soybean meal prices are expected to remain strong and fluctuate in the short term.

Founder CIFCO Futures: Treat soybean oil with a bearish vibration.

Domestic soybean oil continues to accumulate seasonal inventory expectations. Torrential rain may cause losses in soybean production in the state of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil, which has been largely reflected in the price. American soybeans are currently in the sowing and emerging period, and the sowing and emerging progress is relatively smooth. The weather's reduction drove the price drop, and the short-term focus is on the weather conditions in the production areas. The price vibrates with a bearish attitude. Currently, soybeans and soybean meal have accumulated inventory, which may limit the rise of soybean meal.

Guosen Futures: Market focus on Brazilian production losses.

On Friday, the continuous grain surged and fell, and the price center shifted upward. With the arrival of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, there is an obvious risk aversion. Internationally, CBOT's electronic trading of soybeans opened high and fell, but it may have boosted US soybean exports due to Brazil's tariff policies. However, relevant Brazilian soybean teams are still making their final efforts. In addition, next week's USDA report is imminent, and the market still faces certain pressures. With the recovery of Brazilian flat price rates, the bottom support of continuous soybean meal is highlighted, but because there has been no speculation about the weather affecting soybean growth, the soybean meal fluctuation has intensified. It is advisable to operate with a short-term bullish attitude.

Maico Futures: Currently, US soybean planting is smooth, and there is no adverse weather affecting crop growth.

Brazil raising export tariffs may boost US soybean exports. Currently, US soybean planting is smooth, and there is no adverse weather affecting crop growth. Pay attention to the guidance of the USDA report. The domestic market is facing a cumulative supply-side pressure, and oil refineries may have inflation and stoppages. The operating rate has been lowered to 56.62%. The major Chinese oil refinery soybean meal turnover was 58,800 tons, a decrease of 92,600 tons from the previous day, and all were spot transactions, with downstream usage. Oil refineries' soybean meal has accumulated inventory for the ninth consecutive week, and feed enterprise physical inventory is neutral. Currently, the soybean to corn ratio in the Guangdong and Guangxi regions is around 81%. The price advantage of cornmeal is not enough to stimulate demand for feed substitutes. Following the weakness of soybean meal is the most commended approach.

Reuters and Bloomberg outlook.

Prospective data: Global 2024/25 soybean, corn, and wheat ending stocks estimates.

Global 2024/25 soybean ending stocks estimates have been lowered by both Bloomberg and Reuters, to 1.278 billion tons and 1.2725 billion tons respectively. USDA forecasted 1.285 billion tons in May.

Prospective data: US 2024/25 soybean, corn, and wheat ending stocks estimates.

US 2024/25 soybean ending stocks estimates have been raised by both Bloomberg and Reuters, to 457 million bushels and 448 million bushels respectively. USDA forecasted 445 million bushels in May.

Prospective data: US 2024/25 crop production and yield estimates.

US 2024/25 soybean production estimates have been lowered by Bloomberg to 4.447 billion bushels. Bloomberg forecasted a yield of 52 bushels per acre, unchanged from previous estimates in May.

Forward-looking data: Estimated year-end inventories of soybeans, corn, and Chicago SRW wheat in the United States in 2023/24.

For year ending 2023/24, Bloomberg and Reuters predict US soybean inventories of 350 million bushels and 346 million bushels respectively, while USDA estimates 340 million bushels in May.

Forward-looking data: Estimated production of soybeans and corn in South America for 2023/24.

For year ending 2023/24, Bloomberg and Reuters predict Brazilian soybean production of 152 million tons and 151.8 million tons respectively, while May monthly reports estimate 154 million tons.

For year ending 2023/24, Bloomberg and Reuters predict Argentine soybean production of 49.9 million tons and 49.83 million tons respectively, while May monthly reports estimate 50 million tons.