Focusing on the family luxury car market, the product matrix is getting better and better. Ideal Auto was founded in July 2015, focusing on creating safer, more convenient, and more sophisticated smart electric vehicle products for families. In 2018, Ideal's first product, Ideal ONE, accurately identified the needs of middle class households for family cars and accurately entered the new energy segment circuit for extended-range electric SUVs. In 2020, Ideal ONE won the top sales title in China's new energy SUV market. The replacement models L9 and L8 were launched in '22, and sales both exceeded 110,000 units in '23. The first 5-seater model, the L7, was released in '23. With sales volume of 134,000 in that year, Ideal became the first Chinese luxury brand with annual domestic sales of 300,000 units. MEGA, its first all-electric MPV model, was released in March '24, and more than 3,000 units were delivered in that month. In April of the same year, the L6, the first 5-seater SUV product under 30W, was released, and the cumulative number of orders during the first sales period of 4.18-5.5 days has already exceeded 410,000 units. As a result, Ideal has completed full coverage of 20-50W family cars, and will launch more pure electric series products next year.
The family car market is clearly positioned, and internal and external circulation is unified. From the comparison between ideal products and joint ventures, luxury and new power brands, we can see that 2+2+2 large space, six seats, extended range power+comfortable and intelligent cockpit configuration+reasonable price are the 4 magic tricks for the ideal L series to win. What is more prominent behind this is the strong ability of ideal cars to accurately position products and markets. The ideal emphasizes ensuring the consistency of brands, users, and products, that is, coordination between brand image, user needs, and product characteristics.
Independent brands are rising, and the high-end new energy market space is vast. According to the Passenger Federation data, sales of new energy SUVs above 30W in '23 were 671,000 units, up 136% from '22; the penetration rate of the NEV market was 15.5%, compared to 10.4% in '22. Assuming that the penetration rate of new energy SUVs above 30W in 2024-2026 is 17%, 18%, and 19%, sales will reach 1.69 million units in '26. The penetration rate of 20-30W new energy SUVs in the new energy SUV market in '23 is 33.2%. Assuming that the penetration rate of 20-30W new energy SUVs remains 35% in '26, the sales volume of 20-30W new energy SUVs will reach 3.11 million units in '26. The price range for the ideal product is broad.
Investment advice: As the company continues to improve the product layout of the L series and pure electric series, we expect the company's total sales volume in 2024-2026 to be 48.7/81.3/1 million vehicles, with operating revenue of 1472/2330/290.8 billion yuan respectively, and net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of 65.3/134.9/16.66 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding PE is 23.79/11.52/9.33 times. For the first time, coverage is given.
Risk warning: The pace of new model releases falls short of expectations; model sales fall short of expectations; charging network construction falls short of expectations; raw material prices fluctuate; and the industry price war intensifies.