Migaro HD, Shiono Yakuyaku, Ain HD, etc.

Fisco Japan · Jun 7 14:31

＜4552＞ JCRファーマ　557　-11

大幅反落。モルガン・スタンレーMUFG証券で投資判断を「オーバーウェイト」から「イコールウェイト」に、目標株価も1700円から590円に引き下げた。大きな新薬カタリストが2026年から27年まで期待しづらくなっているほか、Izcargoに関する武田との提携関係に変化が生じる可能性が高まってきたことも懸念材料。新薬による利益成長が実感できるのは30年3月期からに先送りされるとの見方へ変更。

＜1928＞積水ハウス　3635　-35

反落。前日の取引時間中に第1四半期の決算を発表してその後株価は上昇、本日は利食い売りが先行しているものの、決算発表前水準からは依然として3％強上昇した水準で推移している。営業利益は717億円で前年同期比28.7％増となり、市場予想を100億円程度上振れ。つれて、通期予想は従来の2800億円から3000億円、前期比10.7％増に上方修正している。米戸建住宅などが想定を上振れて推移しているもよう。

＜6988＞日東電　12300　+555

大幅続伸。大和証券では投資判断を「3」から「2」に、目標株価も9800円から14200円に引き上げた。実績・ガイダンスともにコンセンサスを下振れた決算発表以降、株価は下落基調にあるものの、大和証券では前第4四半期の一過性要因や市場回復、為替水準を考慮して業績予想を引き上げている。25年3月期営業利益は会社計画1400億円に対して1700億円を予想。株主還元への前向きな姿勢変化なども評価。

＜3086＞ Jフロント　1639.5　+56

大幅続伸。SMBC日興証券では投資判断を「2」から「1」に、目標株価も1800円から1900円に引き上げた。今期ガイダンスの弱さを懸念して株価が下落している一方、他の百貨店株は決算発表後に株価が上昇し、同社株の出遅れが目立ってきたと指摘。業績は、名古屋店の大型改装の影響などを慎重に想定したガイダンスを上振れて進捗しており、第1四半期決算をカタリストに出遅れ修正が行われる可能性に期待と。

＜5911＞横河ブHD　2681　-79

大幅反落。野村證券では投資判断を「バイ」から「ニュートラル」に、目標株価も3300円から2900円に引き下げた。国内建設業界では大型工事が増加し、25年3月期以降も中小型案件は発注抑制が続く見込みと。システム建築の売上予想を下方修正したほか、賃金アップや基幹システムの刷新などコスト増も織り込み、収益予想も下方修正した。25年3月期営業利益は会社計画155億円を下回る148億円と予想。

＜6920＞レーザーテック　36200　+1680

大幅反発。スコーピオン・キャピタルのネガティブレポートを受けて先行き不透明感が強まり、前日まで連日できつい下げとなっていた。会社側では、5日に同レポートに対する明確な否定コメントをリリースしていたが、前日には、ATCISシリーズの売上・受注状況なども公表している。ともに第3四半期時点で前期実績を大きく上回っていることが示され、レポートの指摘が払拭される形になっているようだ。

＜4887＞サワイグループHD　5687　-260

伸び悩んで大幅続落。前日に27年3月期までの中計を発表。主な目標値は、営業利益310億円（24年3月期実績は186億円）、GEシェア20.5％（同17.1％）、GE販売数量190億錠（同157億錠）、ROE10％以上（同6.6％）など。市場目線と比較して大きなサプライズはないほか。長期ビジョンは米国事業撤退など踏まえて修正され、31年3月期売上目標は従来の4000億円から3100億円に。

＜9627＞アインHD　5953　+334

大幅反発。前日に24年4月期決算を発表。営業利益は204億円で前期比27.7％増となり、市場予想を20億円程度上振れた。一方、25年4月期は178億円で同12.9％減を見込み、コンセンサスは小幅に下振れの水準とみられる。診療報酬改定の影響や賃上げによる人件費増などを見込んでいるもよう。減益ガイダンス自体は想定線、保守的な前提であるとみられること、前期業績の上振れ着地からあく抜け感が先行へ。

＜5535＞ミガロHD　4550　+700

ストップ高。グループ会社のDXYZが、野村不動産の開発する賃貸マンション「プラウドフラット清澄通り」に、顔認証プラットフォーム「FreeiD」を導入したと前日に発表しており、引き続き買い材料視される展開とみられる。5日には、「FreeiD」が京阪電鉄不動産の「THE TOWER HIRAKATA」に導入決定ともリリースしており、同システムの順調な普及拡大が意識される状況になっている。

＜4507＞塩野義薬　6301　-934

急落。本日R&D説明会が開催されるが、説明会資料が前日に開示された。注目された肥満症治療薬S-309309に関して、フェーズ2試験速報が明らかになった。単剤開発の可否判断の基準として設定していた、ベースラインからの体重減少率（群平均）は5％を超えなかったとされており、単剤での開発戦略から、「既存治療のアンメットニーズ」をふまえた新たな開発戦略を検討するとし、ネガティブインパクトにつながった。

<4552> JCR Pharma 557 -11

It has fallen significantly. Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities has downgraded its investment rating from overweight to equal weight with a target stock price of 590 yen, down from 1700 yen. There is concern that optimism about new pharmaceutical catalysts from 2026 to 2027 may be difficult to maintain and that there may be changes in the partnership with Takeda regarding Izcargo. The view has changed to postponing the realization of profit growth from new drugs until the fiscal year ending March 2030.

<1928> Sekisui House 3635 -35

It has fallen. The stock price continued to rise by more than 3% from the level before the earnings announcement, although there was profit-taking selling today, after it announced earnings results for the first quarter during the previous trading hours. The operating profit was 71.7 billion yen, an increase of 28.7% compared to the same period last year, and exceeded the market forecast by about 10 billion yen. As a result, the full-year forecast has been revised upward from the previous 280 billion yen to 300 billion yen, an increase of 10.7% from the previous year, and it seems that this is mainly due to the better-than-expected performance of US detached houses, etc.

<6988> Nittoden 12300 +555

It has risen sharply. Daiwa Securities has raised its investment rating from 3 to 2 and increased its target stock price from 9800 yen to 14200 yen. Since the earnings announcement, where both actual results and guidance were lower than expected, the stock price has been on a downward trend. However, considering one-off factors in the previous fourth quarter and market recovery, as well as exchange rates, Daiwa Securities has raised its earnings forecast. Estimated operating profit for the fiscal year ending March 2025 is 170 billion yen, compared to the company's plan of 140 billion yen. This is also appreciated, along with the company's positive attitude towards shareholder returns.

<3086> J Front 1639.5 +56

It has risen significantly. SMBC Nikko Securities raised its investment rating from 2 to 1 and increased its target stock price from 1800 yen to 1900 yen. Despite the stock price falling due to concerns about the weakness of this period's guidance, other department store stocks have risen after earnings announcements, and the company's stock has lagged behind. The performance is progressing above the guidance, which was carefully assumed to take into account the large-scale renovation of the Nagoya store, and there is hope that a delay in the adjustment will occur catalyzed by the earnings announcement for the first quarter.

<5911> Yokogawa Electric Corporation 2681 -79

It has fallen sharply. Nomura Securities has downgraded its investment rating from buy to neutral and lowered its target stock price from 3300 yen to 2900 yen. Large-scale construction projects are increasing in the domestic construction industry, and it is expected that orders for small and medium-sized projects will continue to be suppressed even after the fiscal year ending March 2025. Also, the sales forecast for system buildings has been revised downward, and the profit forecast has also been revised downward, taking into account cost increases such as wage increases and renewal of core systems. Operating profit for the fiscal year ending March 2025 is expected to be 148 billion yen, which is lower than the company's plan of 155 billion yen.

<6920> Laser Tech 36200 +1680

Significant rebound. In response to Scorpion Capital's negative report, uncertainty about future prospects increased, leading to tough declines in the previous days. The company had released a clear denial comment on the same report on the 5th, but the previous day, they also announced sales and order status for the ATCIS series. Both indicating that they significantly exceeded the previous year's performance at the end of the third quarter, and the report's points appear to be refuted.

<4887> Sawai Group HD 5687 -260

It has been sluggish and fallen significantly. On the previous day, it announced its medium-term management plan, which covers until the fiscal year ending March 2027. The main target values are operating profit of 31 billion yen (186 billion yen in fiscal 2024), a GE share of 20.5% (17.1% in the same period), sales of GE of 19 billion tablets (157 billion tablets in the same period), and ROE of 10% or more (6.6% in the same period). There are no major surprises compared to the market perspective. Its long-term vision has been revised, taking into account factors such as withdrawal from its US business, and the sales target for the fiscal year ending March 2031 has been lowered from the previous 400 billion yen to 310 billion yen.

<9627> Ain HD 5953 +334

It has risen sharply. On the previous day, it announced its earnings results for the fiscal year ending April 2024. Operating profit was 20.4 billion yen, an increase of 27.7% compared to the same period last year, and exceeded the market forecast by about 2 billion yen. On the other hand, for the fiscal year ending April 2025, it is expected to be 17.8 billion yen, a decrease of 12.9% year-on-year, and the consensus is expected to be slightly lower. It is expected that the impact of the revision of the medical fee schedule and the increase in labor costs due to wage increases will be seen. Although the revised downward guidance itself is within expectations, there is a sense of exhaustion from the upward revision of the previous period's performance.

<5535> Migaro HD 4550 +700

Stock hit maximum limit. DXYZ, a subsidiary company, announced the introduction of facial recognition platform "FreeiD" to the rental apartment "Proud Flat Kiyosumi-dori", developed by Nomura Real Estate, and is expected to be viewed as a buy material. On the 5th, it was also announced that "FreeiD" was introduced to "THE TOWER HIRAKATA" of Keihan Electric Railway Real Estate, and the steady spread of the same system is being considered.

<4507> Shionogi -6301 -934

Sharp decline. Today's R&D briefing was held, but the briefing materials were disclosed the day before. The phase 2 trial rapid report for the S-309309, an obesity treatment drug that received attention, revealed that the baseline weight loss rate (group average) that was set as the criterion for determining the permissibility of single-agent development did not exceed 5%, leading to a negative impact. It is considering a new development strategy based on "unmet needs in existing treatments" from the single-agent development strategy and has resulted in negative impact.

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ミガロHD、塩野義薬、アインHDなど

Migaro HD, Shiono Yakuyaku, Ain HD, etc.

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