Zhongtong Finance APP learned that Sinolink Securities released a research report stating that from a fundamental perspective, the prosperity of the transportation sector is closely related to the macro environment. The prosperous import and export drives port throughput and cross-border logistics demand, and the investment in consumer, real estate and infrastructure supports courier and ToB logistics demand.

Mainline 1: Domestic demand stabilization, positive external demand, and improved fundamentals. It is recommended to focus on hazardous chemical logistics, domestic logistics, dry bulk cargo transportation, and bulk supply chain sectors.

1) Hazardous chemical logistics: The improvement in domestic demand will increase the prosperity of corresponding chemical products, and the demand for related businesses such as transportation, warehousing, and distribution is expected to increase. From the perspective of external demand, the continuity of the Red Sea incident exceeds expectations, overseas inventories are at a low level, and the demand for replenishment may exceed expectations.

2) Domestic logistics: The goods transported by the domestic logistics industry include consumer goods, industrial products, and resource products, which are related to the overall macro economy. Steady and good real estate and infrastructure investment will drive an increase in physical workload, corresponding transportation demand will improve, and freight rates have considerable upward elasticity. At the same time, the scattered-to-concentrated market has ample space.

3) Dry bulk cargo transportation: The global market prices dry bulk cargo, and the BDI has risen at the beginning of the year. China is the largest importer of dry bulk cargo shipping, and the steady real estate and infrastructure policies are expected to promote the increase of starting rates, thereby boosting the transportation demand for iron ore and other goods. The ban on coal transportation in Australia has been lifted, which can contribute to export growth. Brazil's grain shipment volume is good, and it is bullish on the continued rise of BDI for foreign trade dry bulk cargo transportation.

4) Bulk supply chain: Bullish on the increase of bulk product transportation volume and profitability growth brought by the stability of domestic demand and rising bulk product prices. For bulk supply chain companies, leading companies have resource and financial advantages, and it is optimistic about their market share increasing.

Mainline 2: The industry is in a prosperous cycle, and it is recommended to focus on the oil transportation and cross-border logistics sectors.

1) Oil transportation sector: From the demand side, it is optimistic about domestic oil demand, and at the same time, European and American oil inventories are at a low level, and it is expected to promote replenishment demand. Geopolitical disturbances have changed trading patterns and lengthened oil transportation distances. From the supply side, the delivery volume has been low in the past two years, and under the aging of ships, there is great pressure for dismantling.

2) Cross-border logistics sector: At present, the cross-border logistics industry has a high prosperity, mainly driven by domestic brand going abroad, the Belt and Road policy, and cross-border e-commerce. It is expected that the prosperity of outbound will still be maintained.

Recommended targets: Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service (603713.SH), Shanghai Zhonggu Logistics (603565.SH), COSCO Ship Energy (600026.SH), Jiayou International Logistics (603871.SH), Xing Tong Shares (603209.SH), and it is recommended to pay attention to China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872.SZ), Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics (002930.SZ), Pacific Basin (02343), Xiamen Xiangyu (600057.SH), and China Eastern Airlines Logistics (601156.SH).

Risk tips: real estate construction progress, large-scale escalation of oil prices, depreciation of the exchange rate of RMB, macroeconomic progress lower than expected.