Event: The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 first quarter report. The company achieved operating income of 1408.17 billion yuan and 34.273 billion yuan in '23 and 24Q1, respectively; net profit to mother in '23 and 24Q1 was 358.23 billion yuan and 13.431 billion yuan respectively, +1.57% and -5.63%, respectively.
As of 2024Q1, the company's non-performing rate was 1.44%, 4BP at the end of 23; the provision coverage rate was 149.36%, compared to -33BP at the end of 23.
Non-interest income for 23 years supported performance, and overall 24Q1 performance was under pressure. The company's revenue for the full year of 2023 was 140.817 billion yuan, -1.16% year-on-year, with a slight decline in revenue. Looking at the revenue structure, net interest income and net non-interest income were 102,431 billion yuan and 38.386 billion yuan respectively, -4.68% and +9.63% year-on-year respectively. The decline in net interest income was mainly affected by the narrowing of net interest spreads. Net interest spreads at the end of 2023 were 1.46%, compared to -14BP for the same period last year. Non-interest income drives performance growth. Among them, net income from handling fees and commissions was -5.12% year-on-year, and other non-interest net income was +29.93% year-on-year. The main increase was due to other non-interest income such as investment income, which was an increase in income from changes in fair value. Net profit for the full year of 2023 was 35.823 billion yuan, +1.57% year-on-year. Overall, profitability remained stable. 20Q1 results were under pressure. Revenue was -6.80% YoY, of which net interest income was -4.36% YoY, and non-interest net income was affected by capital market fluctuations, -12.22% YoY.
The overall scale has grown steadily, and the characteristics of the loan side are outstanding. The company's total assets, total loans and advance funds, and total deposits absorbed in 2023 reached 767.4.965 billion yuan, 438.8877 billion yuan, and 4283.03 billion yuan respectively. The overall scale continued to expand by +5.78%, +5.89%, and +7.25% year-on-year respectively. The loan side showed impressive performance in public business, with outstanding growth in small and micro loans; corporate loans and advances at the end of '23 were 2617.355 billion yuan, an increase of 218.079 billion yuan, +9.09% year on year; small and micro loans at the end of '23 were 791,216 billion yuan, +15.77% year over year, and inclusive small and micro enterprise loan balance was 612.269 billion yuan, +11.51% year over year. The number of inclusive small and micro enterprise lenders was 513,300, an increase of 110,300 over the end of the previous year. The credit balance of SMEs at the end of 24Q1 was 896.819 billion yuan, an increase of 54.610 billion yuan over the end of 23, an increase of 6.48%, continuing the 23-year growth trend.
The results of bad disposal have been remarkable, and the quality of assets is stable and improving. The company has solidly promoted the construction of an internal risk control system, steadily raised the level of comprehensive risk management, implemented the risk management goal of “preventing risk, promoting development, consolidating the foundation, and strengthening intelligent control”. In recent years, it has stepped up efforts to dispose of non-performing loans, and the quality of assets has stabilized and improved. The non-performing loan ratio continued to decline for two consecutive years. It was 1.48% at the end of 2023, -20BP year on year, 2024Q1 was 1.44%, and continued to decline by 4BP from the end of 2023. The overall provision coverage rate remained stable. The provision coverage rate at the end of 2023 was 149.69%, +7.20pct compared to the previous year. The 2024Q1 company's provision coverage rate was 149.36%, a slight decrease.
The decline in interest spreads has narrowed. The company's net interest spread in 2023 was 1.46%, -14BP year over year. The decline in interest spreads is mainly due to a decline in the company's return on assets. LPR was lowered and market interest rates were running low. Both loan and investment returns declined, while insufficient consumption led to a slowdown in the growth of high-yield retail loans. The 24Q1 net interest spread was 1.38%, which was a narrower decline from -8BP at the end of the year 23. The company continues to optimize its business structure and reduce risk appetite. The annual interest rate reduction is expected to narrow further. At the same time, it continues to deepen the integration of large, medium, and micro individuals led by strategic customers to release growth space through volume comparison.
Investment forecast: The company's non-interest income grew rapidly to support performance. The overall scale grew steadily, and the loan side's small and micro loan business performed well; the company increased its efforts to dispose of bad debts, and the quality of assets was stable and improving.
The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 1382.93, 139.754, 144.191 billion yuan, net profit due to mother of 357.79, 365.50, and 37.422 billion yuan, and BVPS of 14.87, 15.72, and 16.54 yuan/share. The PB valuation corresponding to the closing price on June 5 is 0.26, 0.24, and 0.23 times. Maintain an “Overweight” rating.
Risk warning: The economy has declined beyond expectations, net interest spreads have declined beyond expectations, and asset quality has deteriorated.