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Historic change! The European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in 5 years, saying it will not make pre-commitments on interest rate paths.

wallstreetcn · Jun 6 20:25

来源：华尔街见闻

欧央行“抢跑”美联储，25基点降息如期而至，但未对下一步行动进行说明。

6月6日周四，欧洲央行公布6月利率决议，如预期一致降息25个基点，为2019年以来首次，是G7成员国中第二个降息的央行，昨夜加拿大央行打响G7国家降息第一枪。

具体来看：

欧元区存款便利利率3.75%，前值4%，为2019年9月以来首次下调；欧元区主要再融资利率4.25%，前值4.5%；欧元区边际贷款利率4.5%，前值 4.75%，均自2016年3月以来首次下调。

值得一提的是，欧央行表示不对任何特定利率路径做预先承诺，这意味着7月将连续降息不太可能。欧央行还表示，通胀前景“明显改善”，但同时上调了2024年通胀预期。

欧洲央行决议公布后，交易员维持欧洲央行降息预期，料今年还会再降息40个基点。

欧元兑美元短线拉升约20点，现报1.0883。德债跌幅扩大，德国10年期国债收益率短线小幅拉升，现报2.533%。欧洲股市短线小幅走低，德国DAX指数涨幅收窄至0.6%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨幅收窄至0.6%。

不对利率路径做预先承诺

欧洲央行表示，现在应该适当缓和政策限制程度：

基于对通胀前景、潜在通胀动态和货币政策传导力度的最新评估，在维持利率9个月不变后，现在应该放宽货币政策限制的程度。

同时欧央行强调，不对任何特定的利率路径做预先承诺：

管理委员会将继续遵循依赖数据和逐次会议的方法来确定适当的限制水平和持续时间。

此外，欧央行重申计划在2024年下半年削减PEPP，即将在第二季度每月减持75亿欧元的紧急抗疫购债计划（PEPP）资产。

上调2024年GDP和通胀预期

通胀方面，欧央行在声明中承认：

自2023年9月的会议以来，通胀率下降了超过2.5个百分点，通胀前景已明显改善；
尽管近期有所改善，但由于工资增长加快，国内价格压力依然强劲，通胀很可能在明年长期保持在目标水平之上。

与3月份的预测相比，欧央行上调对2024年和2025年的总体和核心通胀预测。

经济增长：预计2024年GDP增长率为0.9%（3月为0.6%），2025年为1.4%（3月为1.5%），2026年为1.6%（3月为1.6%）。
通胀：预计2024年通胀率为2.5%（3月为2.3%），2025年为2.2%（3月为2.0%），2026年为1.9%（维持不变）。

通胀波动令未来路径蒙上阴影

当下未来降息路径成为市场焦点，而通胀波动令未来降息蒙上一层“阴影”。

荷兰国际银行宏观经济主管Carsten Brzeski表示，欧洲央行降息周期可能在开始后不久就不得不停止。

欧洲央行周四的降息可能已经用尽了大部分的回旋空间。欧元区央行降息的举措得到了广泛的关注和预期，但它确实显示出了先于美联储采取行动的信心。欧洲央行降息似乎并不是因为迫不得已，而仅仅是因为可以。随着整个货币联盟的通胀变得棘手，这一降息的回旋余地正在缩小，欧洲央行自己也上调了对今年CPI上涨的预期，这将限制进一步降息的空间。

伦敦首席G10外汇策略师Childe—Freeman认为：

事实上，欧洲央行选择不预先承诺一条特定的路径，并上调2024-25年通胀预期，给人以鹰派的印象，有助于看涨欧元兑美元的观点。

Saltmarsh Economics欧洲经济学家Marchel Alexandrovich表示：

欧洲央行采取了行动，并遵循了其指引。他们没有承诺进一步降息，7月加息也不在考虑之列。市场关注的焦点是，他们是否会在9月份找到降息空间。欧洲央行上调了通胀预期，我并不感到意外。事实证明通胀很棘手，这使得欧洲央行很难相信通胀会降至目标水平。关键的表态是他们没有承诺遵循预先确定的利率路径。

编辑/ruby

Source: Wall Street See

The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, following the Federal Reserve's lead. However, they did not provide any guidance on their next steps.

On Thursday, June 6th, the European Central Bank announced its June interest rate decision, cutting interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. This is the first time since 2019 and the second G7 central bank to cut interest rates after the Bank of Canada launched the first shot in the G7 countries last night.

Specifically:

The euro area deposit facility rate is 3.75%, down from 4% previously, the first cut since September 2019. The euro area's main refinancing rate is 4.25%, down from 4.5% previously. The euro area's marginal lending rate is 4.5%, down from 4.75% previously. This is the first time since March 2016 that these rates have been cut.

It is worth mentioning that the European Central Bank has stated that it will not make any advance commitments to specific interest rate paths, meaning that it is unlikely to continue to lower interest rates in July. The European Central Bank also stated that the inflation outlook has "clearly improved," but at the same time raised its inflation expectations for 2024.

After the European Central Bank decision was announced, traders maintained expectations of rate cuts from the ECB. There may be a further rate cut of 40 basis points later this year.

The euro rose by about 20 points against the dollar and is now trading at 1.0883. German bond yields fell, with the yield on 10-year German Treasury notes rising slightly to 2.533%. European stocks fell slightly, with the DAX index's gain narrowing to 0.6% and the Euro Stoxx 50 index's gain narrowing to 0.6%.

Do not make advance commitments to interest rate paths.

The European Central Bank stated that policy constraints should now be appropriately relaxed:

Based on the latest assessment of the inflation outlook, potential inflation dynamics, and the transmission of monetary policy, the degree of monetary policy constraints should now be relaxed after maintaining rates unchanged for nine months.

At the same time, the ECB emphasized that it will not make any advance commitments to specific interest rate paths:

The Management Committee will continue to follow a data-dependent and gradual approach to determine the appropriate level and duration of restrictions.

In addition, the European Central Bank reiterated its plan to reduce assets in the emergency pandemic purchase program (PEPP), which aims to reduce monthly purchases of €7.5 billion in the second quarter of 2024.

Raise GDP and inflation expectations for 2024.

As for inflation, the European Central Bank acknowledges:

Since the September 2023 meeting, the inflation rate has declined by more than 2.5%, and the inflation outlook has clearly improved;
Although there has been some improvement recently, domestic price pressures are still strong due to accelerating wage growth, and inflation is likely to remain above target levels in the long term next year.

Compared to the March forecast, the European Central Bank raised its overall and core inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025.

Economic growth: The GDP growth rate is expected to be 0.9% in 2024 (compared to 0.6% in March), 1.4% in 2025 (compared to 1.5% in March), and 1.6% in 2026 (compared to 1.6% in March).
Inflation: The inflation rate is expected to be 2.5% in 2024 (compared to 2.3% in March), 2.2% in 2025 (compared to 2.0% in March), and 1.9% in 2026 (unchanged).

Inflation fluctuations cast a shadow over the future path.

At present, the future interest rate path has become the focus of the market, while inflation fluctuations have cast a layer of 'shadow' over the future interest rate cut.

Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Bank, said the European Central Bank's interest rate cut cycle may have to stop shortly after it begins.

The ECB's interest rate cut on Thursday may have used up most of its room for manoeuvre. The move to cut interest rates by the eurozone central bank has received wide attention and expectations, but it does show confidence in taking action ahead of the US Federal Reserve. The ECB's interest rate cut does not seem to be a last resort, but only because it can. As inflation in the entire currency union becomes tricky, the room for manoeuvre for this interest rate cut is shrinking, and the ECB itself has raised its expectations for CPI growth this year, which will limit the space for further rate cuts.

London's chief G10 forex strategist Childe-Freeman believes:

In fact, the ECB's choice not to commit to a specific path and to raise inflation expectations for 2024-25 gives the impression of a hawkish stance, which helps the bullish view on the euro against the dollar.

Marchel Alexandrovich, an economist at Saltmarsh Economics, said:

The European Central Bank has taken action and followed its guidelines. They did not commit to further interest rate cuts, and July rate hikes are not on the table. The market's focus is whether they will find room to cut rates in September. The European Central Bank raised its inflation expectations, which is not surprising. The fact is that inflation is tricky, making it difficult for the ECB to believe that inflation will fall to target levels. The key point is that they have not committed to following a predetermined interest rate path.

Editor/ruby

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