Incidents:
The company announced a cash dividend plan for the next three years. In order to meet the company's development and normal capital expenditure requirements, the total fixed cash dividends for 2024-2026 are set to be 750 million yuan, 850 million yuan, and 1 billion yuan, respectively, and the dividend rates corresponding to the market value on June 5, 2024 are 4.6%, 5.2%, and 6.1%, respectively. Furthermore, if the net profit to mother increases by more than 18% over the previous year for three consecutive years in 2024-2026, a special cash dividend plan will be launched. The minimum amount is 20 million yuan.
At the same time, the company launched the second phase of the employee shareholding plan and the restricted equity incentive plan. The performance assessment required that the net profit due to the 2024-2027 mother should not be less than 1.5 billion yuan, 1,725 billion yuan, 1,984 billion yuan, and 2,281 billion yuan, respectively. The introduction of the dividend plan and incentive plan provided a double guarantee for the company's future performance goals and dividends.
The integrated layout of the upper, middle and lower reaches of natural gas ensures steady growth of the main business:
The company has gradually formed a natural gas industry chain model with an integrated layout of upstream resources, midstream transportation, and downstream customers. On the resource side, the company has a “sea air+land gas” dual resource pool. Relying on its own Lisha Island receiving station in Dongguan, the company has signed a long-term LNG contract with PETRONAS and ENI to ensure stable gas source prices, while using free transmission of ship capacity to purchase spot goods from the international market to meet the demand gap; in terms of land gas, the company's self-controlled LNG production capacity reached 700,000 tons by the end of 2023. On the transportation side, by the end of 2023, the company's Dongguan Lisha Island Terminal can achieve an annual turnover capacity of 1.5 million tons of LNG and LPG150 million tons; it can independently control the capacity of 8 ships, including 4 LNG ships and 4 LPG ships, with an annual turnover capacity of 4 to 5 million tons. Midstream core assets are the key support for the company's diversified natural gas resources. As a client, the company's Haiqi Group mainly matches direct domestic end users, self-produced LNG matches gas station users, and Haigas spot matches domestic gas power plants and international and domestic distribution customers.
Diversified gas sources are combined with good customer matching. The company's main natural gas business has strong net price performance and high gross profit stability per ton, supporting the steady growth of the company's main business.
Special gas superimposes energy services, and emerging businesses accelerate growth:
The company implemented the “one main, two wings” strategy to expand the two emerging businesses of specialty gases and energy services around the main natural gas business. In terms of specialty gases, the company's active layout includes production and sales of helium and hydrogen. According to the annual report, the company's high-purity helium production and sales volume reached 300,000 square meters in 2023, accounting for 10% of domestic helium production, entering the first tier of domestic helium. At the same time, in 2023, the company successfully completed the Hainan commercial space launch site's special combustion special gas supporting project, providing liquid hydrogen, liquid oxygen, liquid nitrogen, helium, high-purity liquid methane and other products for rocket launches. The project was the first comprehensive special gas supporting project for commercial space launches in China. In terms of energy services, by the end of 2023, the company had operated more than 110 natural gas wells (nearly 80 operating platforms) and 3 supporting service projects for natural gas recovery and treatment (processing scale of about 1.72 million m3/day).
Investment advice:
According to the performance assessment targets of the company's restricted equity incentive plan and employee stock ownership plan, we expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 29.821 billion yuan, 31,695 billion yuan, and 34.45 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 12.3%, 6.3% and 8.7%, net profit of 1,566 billion yuan, 1,769 billion yuan and 2,026 billion yuan respectively, with outstanding growth; maintain the investment rating of purchase-A and give 2024 12 times PE, 6 The monthly target price is 29.88 yuan.
Risk warning: Risk of large fluctuations in overseas gas prices, risk of project commissioning falling short of expectations, risk of exchange rate fluctuations, risk of downstream demand falling short of expectations.