Key points of investment
Incident: The company announced the “Cash Dividend Plan for the Next Three Years (2024-2026)” and the second phase of the employee stock ownership plan. In 2024-2026, the company will pay cash dividends in the form of fixed cash dividends+special cash dividends; the second phase of the employee stock ownership plan will target the company's core management team (28 people), and the plan matches the company's second three-year development plan after listing (2025-2027).
The dividend plan is divided into two parts: fixed dividends and special dividends, with a dividend rate of over 4.5% in 2024. The fixed dividend amount is: 2024-2026, the annual fixed cash dividend amount is RMB 7.5, 8.5 billion yuan, and RMB 1 billion (tax included); the trigger conditions for the special cash dividend are: based on the company's net profit of 1,306 billion yuan in 2023 (base period), for three consecutive years from 2024-2026. When the net profit to mother achieved by the company continued to grow in that year, and the year-on-year increase was more than 18%, the special cash dividend plan for the current year was launched. The lower limit of the cash dividend amount is RMB 20 million.
Excluding special dividends, the company's dividend rates for 2024-2026 are 4.54%, 5.15%, and 6.06%, respectively (based on the closing market value on the announcement date of June 5).
The second phase of the employee stock ownership plan anchored a 15% annual performance growth rate, demonstrating the company's confidence in long-term development. The current employee shareholding plan capital is no more than 98.775 million yuan. The net profit assessment targets for the 2025-2027 three-year period are not less than 1,725 billion yuan, 1,984 billion yuan, and 2,281 billion yuan, respectively. Based on the assessment target of 1.5 billion yuan in 2024, the annual performance growth rate is 15%. This employee stock ownership plan is expected to help the company achieve a stable core talent team and serve the company for a long time.
The “one main, two wings” pattern continues to deepen, and there is plenty of momentum for long-term development. The company's main clean energy business has shown good performance and resilience after years of market testing. Single ton revenue remains at a stable level, and against the backdrop of falling natural gas prices, the downstream side of the company actively matches industrial, commercial and gas power plant customers, which is expected to further increase terminal demand. The upstream has core trade assets such as ships and receiving stations to help the company allocate resources flexibly, reduce costs and increase efficiency. “Energy Service+Special Gas”, as the “two wings”, provides further performance growth and flexibility: the revenue per ton of energy operation services is stable, and the pace of expansion is clear; LPG ships in fund-raising projects have been successfully delivered and provided services to the outside world, and core asset capacity and energy logistics business volume have been further improved; specialty gases anchor commercial aerospace and actively promote terminal retail, and have good flexibility.
Investment proposal and valuation: The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated to be RMB 29.443 billion, RMB 33.02 billion, with growth rates of 10.8%, 7.4% and 4.3% respectively, and net profit to mother of RMB 15.01 billion, RMB 1.76 billion and RMB 2.02 billion respectively, with growth rates of 15.5%, 17.6% and 14.7% respectively. Corresponding PE is 12X, 10X, and 9X respectively. Maintain a “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning: risk of global economic fluctuations, risk of upstream procurement and price fluctuations, risk of exchange rate fluctuations, risk of project progress falling short of expectations, risk of policy progress falling short of expectations.