With its stock down 5.4% over the past month, it is easy to disregard Timken (NYSE:TKR). But if you pay close attention, you might gather that its strong financials could mean that the stock could potentially see an increase in value in the long-term, given how markets usually reward companies with good financial health. In this article, we decided to focus on Timken's ROE.
ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.
How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?
ROE can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Timken is:
14% = US$393m ÷ US$2.7b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).
The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.14 in profit.
Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.
Timken's Earnings Growth And 14% ROE
To start with, Timken's ROE looks acceptable. And on comparing with the industry, we found that the the average industry ROE is similar at 14%. This probably goes some way in explaining Timken's moderate 5.9% growth over the past five years amongst other factors.
As a next step, we compared Timken's net income growth with the industry and were disappointed to see that the company's growth is lower than the industry average growth of 8.7% in the same period.
Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. What is TKR worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether TKR is currently mispriced by the market.
Is Timken Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?
Timken's three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 24% (implying that it retains 76% of its income), which is on the lower side, so it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business.
Moreover, Timken is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 20%. As a result, Timken's ROE is not expected to change by much either, which we inferred from the analyst estimate of 17% for future ROE.
Conclusion
Overall, we are quite pleased with Timken's performance. In particular, it's great to see that the company is investing heavily into its business and along with a high rate of return, that has resulted in a respectable growth in its earnings. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings are expected to accelerate. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.