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大行评级|交银国际:预计内地房地产政策组合券可带动超过1万亿元商品住宅增量销售

Bocom intl rating: Combination coupons of mainland real estate policies are expected to drive sales growth of over 1 trillion yuan for commodity residences.

Gelonghui Finance ·  Jun 6 15:24
On June 6, Guolonghui stated that bocom intl predicts that this round of real estate policy package can drive over 1 trillion yuan of commodity residential sales in mainland China. The bank believes that the market will also re-evaluate the prospects of major developers based on the quality, scale and brand of their land reserves. It is expected that opportunities will mainly come from state-owned enterprises or developers with major state-owned enterprise shareholders, who will benefit more directly from recent relaxation policies. Private entrepreneurs with higher quality land reserves will be reassessed and benefit from the purchasing power during the market recovery period. The bank's preference ranking is state-owned/state-owned background developers with attractive valuation, followed by private market leaders with land reserves in first- and second-tier cities and then other private developers. As for Hong Kong's real estate sector, the report suggests that with more cities opening up individual tourist visa applications to Hong Kong, the increase in the number of inbound tourists can partially alleviate the impact of northward consumption, and the overall retail rent in Hong Kong is expected to remain stable. Due to a large number of completed projects and high vacancy rates, the office leasing market faces greater uncertainty. Bocom intl believes that the inclusion of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and mid-term catalysts of interest rate cuts will be bullish for the performance of real estate investment trusts. Preference for Hong Kong's real estate industry is in retail property trust funds, followed by low-leverage residential developers, thirdly in retail rental stocks, and fourthly in real estate investment trusts/rental stocks/developers with a large number of office building business operations; Link REIT is its preferred option for Hong Kong's real estate.

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