Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
Author: Wang Xiaoli.

Eli Lilly and Co has made significant investments to expand the production capacity of its best-selling weight loss drugs and diabetes medications, and has seen initial results. The company is now able to lift the shipping controls implemented in Japan last year.

Although approved for use in diabetes, due to supply shortages, Eli Lilly still had to limit the shipment of Mounjaro in Japan last year. The drug was also approved for weight loss in the US last year under the brand name Zepbound. Simone Thomsen, president of the company in Japan, said in an interview on Thursday that since 2020, the company has invested a total of US$18 billion to continuously improve its production capacity. The supply shortage issue has been alleviated to some extent.

Thomsen said, "When we started production last year in Japan, we had to control part of the shipment volume. I am pleased to tell you that the supply in Japan is now basically stable and this control has been cancelled."

Weight loss drugs developed by Eli Lilly and its competitor Novo Nordisk are widely popular worldwide, and the increasing demand is bringing greater supply pressure to manufacturers. According to Bloomberg, by the end of this decade, this demand will drive a market worth $80 billion. Last week, Goldman Sachs raised its expectations for the market's size, suggesting that the global weight-loss drug market may exceed $130 billion by 2030.

In Japan, Eli Lilly is investing JPY 7 billion (USD 45 million) to expand the production capacity of its Kobe factory. Thomsen said: "We will complete the expansion by the end of this year, and the new model will be put into production next year."

To solve the ongoing shortage problem, Eli Lilly also announced last month that it will increase investment in its production base in Lebanon, Indiana, to produce the active ingredient of Mounjaro, tirzepatide. The new investment amount is USD 5.3 billion, and the total investment amount has increased to USD 9 billion.

While focusing on increasing production capacity, the company is also restricting the listing of these drugs outside the United States. Eli Lilly has not yet launched Mounjaro for weight loss in Europe, even though the drug has been approved in Europe for several months. CEO Dave Ricks said the drug was approved for diabetes treatment in China earlier, but Eli Lilly will not launch it.

Eli Lilly is currently seeking approval from the Japanese authorities for the drug. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk's weight loss drug Wegovy has been approved in Japan.

Editor/Jeffy