Core conclusion: We forecast that the company's main business revenue from 2024 to 2026 will be 8.560 billion yuan, 9.484 billion yuan and 10.419 billion yuan respectively, net profit attributable to mother will be 1,045 billion yuan, 1,196 billion yuan and 1,307 billion yuan respectively, and EPS of 0.87 yuan, 1.00 yuan and 1.09 yuan respectively. The first coverage gives a “buy” rating.
The company is a cloud network integration product provider and operation service provider of the State Grid Holdings: The company was founded in 1993 and initiated a major asset restructuring with the State Grid ICT Industry Group, transforming from a power enterprise whose main business is electricity production and sales to a cloud grid integration technology product provider and operation service provider.
The electricity demand side and the supply side jointly promote the digital intelligent transformation of energy and the implementation of new power systems:
On the demand side, downstream energy consumption scenarios represented by data center GPU clusters, driven by new technologies such as generative AI, may place higher demands on the power system's ability to regulate and support power systems. On the supply side, the share of domestic new energy installed capacity continues to increase, which may consume the power system to adjust resources flexibly.
Combining the demand side and the supply side is expected to accelerate the digital and intelligent transformation of energy and the construction of new power systems.
The company is actively participating in the digital and intelligent transformation of energy, and related businesses are expected to accelerate growth: (1) The demand for digital transformation in the energy sector has laid the foundation for the long-term sustainable development of the company's cloud network infrastructure business. (2) New business formats such as distributed energy, energy storage, and virtual power plants continue to emerge, putting higher demands on the impressive, controllable, measurable and self-balancing capabilities of power grids, and the market space for digital power services is expected to continue to increase. (3) In the digital transformation of electricity, digital technology is expected to be integrated into all major fields of power enterprise operation and management to improve the lean management level of power enterprises.
Reviewing Guodian Nanrui, how do you view the company's development space? Guodian Nanrui's biggest two waves of gains were driven by beta market conditions brought about by rising industry sentiment, and industry expansion brought about by the company group's asset injection, respectively. We believe that, benefiting from the future wave of digital intelligence in power grids and abundant asset injection, the company is expected to replicate Guodian Nanrui's growth in market share in the past 10 years and the development path of multi-product platform-based layout, superposition the structural switch of power grid investment, and gradually lean towards power informatization and digital intelligence. As a leader in digital and intelligent power grids, the company is expected to obtain the next double click opportunity.