Matters:
On May 31, 2024, Guangdong Gushengtang, a subsidiary of the company, signed an equity transfer framework contract with the shareholder seller of Hunan Mingyuantang. Guangdong Gushengtang plans to acquire 100% of Hunan Mingyuantang's shares at a consideration of RMB 18 million. Hunan Mingyuantang Branch controls and manages 2 TCM clinics and 1 TCM retail pharmacy.
Commentary:
After the completion of this acquisition, the company will enter the Hunan market for the first time, and store expansion will accelerate markedly. As of June 2, 2024, the company will increase the number of branches to 69 in 2024 with self-construction, completion of mergers and acquisitions, and 11 new mergers and acquisitions. In March, Gushengtang acquired Baozhongtang Singapore, taking the first step in internationalization; the domestic acquisition of Kunshan Laien and the official opening of the Shanghai Putuo branch of its own store. In May, Gushengtang acquired two outpatient clinics under Beijing Asian Games Village Hospital, Changshu Nanshan Hall, Ningbo Yinzhou Guyuantang, Ningbo Yinzhou Ming Medical Center, Ningbo Yinzhou Zhanhai Guyuantang, and Hunan Mingyuantang. The company successfully opened its own Suzhou Wujiang Branch.
Medical consortium cooperation is progressing steadily, and the medical team continues to grow. Since this year (as of May 20, 2024), the company has added 6 new medical consortium partners, bringing the total number of medical consortium cooperative units to 26. In January, Gushengtang and Heilongjiang University of Traditional Chinese Medicine jointly established a medical consortium; in March, they reached a medical consortium with Jiangyin Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, and signed strategic cooperation with Henan Tuina Vocational College, Guangdong Chaozhou Health Vocational College, and Dazhou Vocational College of Traditional Chinese Medicine; in April, they signed a strategic cooperation with Zhongshan Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine to cooperate in various fields such as talent development, scientific research, and medical construction.
Investment advice: Currently, the company's store expansion and endogenous growth are progressing steadily, and there is strong certainty about performance. We expect the company's adjusted net profit for 2024-26 to be $418, 5.58 million, and 765 million yuan, respectively (previous forecast values were 3.65 million yuan and 477 million yuan, respectively), up 37%, 34%, and 37% year-on-year. Based on adjusted net profit, the current stock price corresponds to PE at 23, 17, and 13 times, respectively. Referring to medical service companies, the company's performance is growing faster and should enjoy a certain premium valuation. Based on adjusted net profit, we gave the company a target PE of 30 times in 2024, corresponding to a target market value of HK$14 billion. Maintain a “Recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Self-construction or mergers and acquisitions of new stores have not progressed as expected; loss of core expert resources, etc.