Key Insights
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Ocular Therapeutix fair value estimate is US$9.56
- Ocular Therapeutix's US$5.30 share price signals that it might be 45% undervalued
- Analyst price target for OCUL is US$14.50, which is 52% above our fair value estimate
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. (NASDAQ:OCUL) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
The Calculation
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
| Levered FCF ($, Millions) | -US$117.3m | -US$120.9m | -US$95.7m | -US$104.4m | US$39.0m | US$53.5m | US$67.9m | US$81.1m | US$92.8m | US$102.8m |
| Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Est @ 37.35% | Est @ 26.86% | Est @ 19.52% | Est @ 14.37% | Est @ 10.78% |
| Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.1% | -US$111 | -US$107 | -US$80.3 | -US$82.5 | US$29.0 | US$37.6 | US$45.0 | US$50.7 | US$54.6 | US$57.1 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = -US$107m
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.1%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$103m× (1 + 2.4%) ÷ (6.1%– 2.4%) = US$2.9b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$2.9b÷ ( 1 + 6.1%)10= US$1.6b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$1.5b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$5.3, the company appears quite good value at a 45% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Ocular Therapeutix as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Ocular Therapeutix
- Debt is well covered by earnings.
- Balance sheet summary for OCUL.
- Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
- Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
- Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
- Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
- Not expected to become profitable over the next 3 years.
- Is OCUL well equipped to handle threats?
Moving On:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Ocular Therapeutix, we've put together three pertinent aspects you should assess:
- Risks: For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Ocular Therapeutix (1 shouldn't be ignored) you should be aware of.
- Future Earnings: How does OCUL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGM every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.