Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
The United States is reclaiming its undisputed leadership position in the cryptocurrency market. Signs of revival in the US crypto market are everywhere, from a series of record-breaking Bitcoin ETFs, to looser regulatory agencies, expanding political donations, and crypto supporter Trump becoming a powerful contender for the presidency.
Perhaps the most telling indicator of the situation is that according to a report by research firm Kaiko, the US dollar ceded its position as the currency with the most cryptocurrency asset trades in the first quarter to the South Korean won, but the US dollar has since rebounded strongly, and accounted for over 50% of global trading in early May.
All of this represents a stunning turn of events from last year, when trading volume shifted to Asia in the face of a series of regulatory crackdowns in the US, including investigations into companies such as Binance and Coinbase. In late May of this year, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved Ethereum spot ETFs, a move that caught the market off guard.
According to data tracked by Morning Consult, Trump is currently leading incumbent President Biden by a narrow margin in opinion polls.
In terms of legislation, analysts say the likelihood of the 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act becoming law in 2025 is rising. The bill would establish a new regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the US, something the industry has long been calling for.
Mike Novogratz, founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, said on Tuesday that a more positive political situation in the US could push bitcoin prices above $100,000 by the end of this year. Currently, the trading price of Bitcoin is around $71,000.
On January 11th, with companies such as Belay and Fidelity Investments launching spot Bitcoin ETFs, the political situation began to tilt towards cryptocurrencies. So far, these ETFs have amassed $61 billion in assets, making them one of the most successful fund categories in history. Their impact has reshaped trading patterns, with trading hours increasingly converging with US trading times.
According to data from Kaiko, the cumulative share of Bitcoin trading volume that occurs in the hour before the US market closes has increased from 4.9% during the 2021 crypto bull market to over 7.2% this year. Kaiko says this could be due to Bitcoin ETFs, which calculate their net asset value based on benchmarks at that time, ‘encouraging arbitrage and price discovery’.
Recently, Hong Kong has launched its own set of spot crypto ETFs tracking Bitcoin and Ethereum, but the funds flowing into these products are far less than those of their US counterparts.
Rich Rosenblum, co-founder of crypto market maker GSR Markets, said SBF's FTX crash at the end of 2022 "had a huge cicada effect on US institutional investment and opened a door for Asia to lead the trend." "After becoming the obvious winner in Bitcoin ETF capital flows, the United States is regaining its lead."
Data tracked by Galaxy Digital shows that there are 324 US-based venture capital firms focused on cryptocurrencies, far exceeding Singapore's second-ranked 66 firms.
Some US investors are even seeking to profit from the FTX collapse. Pantera has been an enthusiastic buyer of $2.6 billion worth of Solana tokens that the bankrupt exchange has sold at a significant discount to market prices. While FTX's creditors will be fully paid back, some are unhappy about not being able to recover their original crypto assets.
Some US investors are even trying to profit from the FTX crash. Pantera has been a positive buyer of $2.6 billion Solana tokens sold at a significant discount below market value by the bankrupt exchange. FTX's creditors will be fully paid back, but some are still unhappy about not being able to retrieve their original cryptos.
Editor / jayden