Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.

The growth of enterprise recruitment in May in the United States has shown the slowest speed since the beginning of the year, mainly due to the significant reduction in manufacturing wages, which further confirms the trend of gradual cooling in the labor market. According to statistics from the ADP Research Institute, private sector employment increased by 152,000 in May, a figure lower than the median forecast of economists surveyed by the market - 175,000.

Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said in a statement, 'As we head into the second half of the year, both employment and wage growth are showing signs of slowing. While the labor market remains robust, we're closely monitoring areas of potential softness related to producers and consumers.'

Specifically, layoffs in manufacturing reached 20,000, the largest monthly decline since July of last year. The scale of layoffs in the professional and business services sector also hit a new high in over a year. Meanwhile, employment in mining and information technology industries declined, and the recruitment speed in leisure and hospitality industry was the lowest since November.

ADP's report further highlights the cooling trend in the labor market. Consistent with this, government data this week showed job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Although the pace of recruitment has slowed, the number of layoffs remains at historic lows, which is in line with the expectations of Federal Reserve officials to help contain inflation by maintaining a low layoff rate while avoiding an increase in unemployment.

Data released by ADP and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab also showed that for the second consecutive month, the wage growth of job-replaced employees slowed, down 7.8% year-on-year. The income growth of employees who stay in their current positions remained at 5%, which is also the lowest level since 2021.

Although ADP's published employment figures were lower than the median forecast, they were still within the range expected by economists. The overnight financing rate in the United States (SOFR) only fell slightly by one basis point, almost flat with before ADP data was released.

Analysts believe that this report is the latest indication that employment has not retreated under the heavy pressure of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. However, other data shows that the job market is becoming more balanced.

Earlier this week, the US Labor Department reported that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years, and the ratio of job openings to unemployed people has returned to levels before the epidemic in early 2020.

Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard Asset Management, said, 'More and more evidence suggests that the Federal Reserve should start easing policy.'

Federal Reserve policymakers and investors are expecting more comprehensive information about the employment market from the May government employment report, which will be released on Friday. Economists widely predict that non-farm employment will increase by 185,000, including employment positions in both private and public sectors. Although this forecast has risen from April, it still seems relatively mild compared to the first few months of this year.

It is worth noting that ADP's survey results are based on wage data from over 25 million American private sector employees and provide important reference for analyzing the employment market.

After the data was released, the US dollar index and spot gold did not fluctuate much in the short term. The two-year US Treasury bond yield fell to a new intraday low, but did not drop below the low point of slightly less than 4.75% on Tuesday; the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 4.312%, the lowest level since April 5.

Editor / jayden