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Preview of US stocks | "Small non-farm" data lower than expected, slight narrowing of three major futures gains; rate cut expectations rise, forward pricing of Fed rate cut may be advanced to November.

Futu News · Jun 5 20:28

全球宏观

小非农数据低于预期，三大期指涨幅收窄

美国5月ADP就业人数增加15.2万人，预期为增加17.5万人，前值为增加19.2万人。美国10年期国债收益率降至4.312%，为自4月5日以来最低水平。截至发稿，三大指数涨幅收窄，纳指涨0.48%，标普500指数涨0.24%。

美债交易员降息预期升温，掉期定价美联储降息提前至11月

债券交易商再次转向鸽派立场，纷纷押注美联储加快降息步伐将令美债上涨。周二报告显示，美国职位空缺数量意外下滑。掉期交易员目前正将美联储首次全面降息25个基点的预期从12月提前至11月。在现货市场，摩根大通的美国国债客户调查显示，直接多头仓位升至3月以来最高，进一步显示出积极动能。

美联储为何“急于”降息？高盛交易员：劳动力市场正在恶化

周三，高盛交易员Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli在最新的报告中指出，美联储近期降息前景更有可能是美国劳动力市场的推动，而不是由于通胀的下滑。目前互换市场数据显示，交易员将美联储首降25基点的预期从12月提前至11月。周二公布的美国4月JOLTS职位空缺数远低于预期，叠加此前非农意外骤降，显示劳动力市场降温迹象。

小摩拉警报：“Meme股”炒作卷土重来不是好兆头，美股可能面临暴跌

摩根大通首席全球市场策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇认为，“Meme股”的复苏对美股来说是个坏兆头。即使标普500指数接近历史最高水平，科拉诺维奇在周一的一份报告中重申了他对美股的看跌观点。这位策略师对标普500指数的目标价为4200点，在华尔街分析师中最低，意味着美股从当前水平有20%的潜在下行空间。

别人恐惧我贪婪！4000亿美元暴跌后多家基金选择抄底印度股市

在刚刚结束的大选中，印度总理莫迪领导的政党失去了议会下院的多数席位，但几家全球基金经理表示，投资印度股市的理由仍然没有改变。百达资产管理公司高级多资产策略师Arun Sai认为，印度股市周二近4000亿美元的暴跌是又一次投资印度股市的机会。Sai的观点得到了许多基金经理和分析师的认同，法国巴黎银行财富管理部门主管称，市场对选举结果的反应是短视的。

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前齐升

英伟达AI芯片大火，台积电也要分更大蛋糕：已向黄仁勋提涨价了

随着$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$等AI芯片巨头在人工智能浪潮中赚得盆满钵满，英伟达合作的芯片代工厂商台积电，也打算要从中分得更大的一杯羹了。本周二，台积电新任董事长魏哲家暗示，他正在考虑提高公司人工智能芯片代工服务的价格。他表示，他已经与英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋讨论了这个问题。

Apple TV进中国？报道：苹果正与中国移动洽谈

据悉，$苹果 (AAPL.US)$正与中国移动洽谈，中国移动将通过机顶盒提供Apple TV+服务，按月收费，订阅收入由双方共享，视频内容可能上线咪咕视频。目前，Apple TV+在美国的订阅费为9.99美元/月，报道预测中国区的订阅费将低于该水平。

英伟达质疑特斯拉将AI芯片转移至X，马斯克发文回应

埃隆·马斯克证实，他将所采购的人工智能芯片从$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$转移到了X和xAI公司，并回应了转移原因和$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$内部邮件中对特斯拉采购计划的质疑。

英特尔出售旗下爱尔兰工厂49%股份，获110亿美元资金缓解财务担忧

根据$英特尔 (INTC.US)$周二在一份声明，英特尔将出售其爱尔兰Fab 34芯片工厂相关实体中49%的股份。英特尔将保留51%的股份，从而保持对公司的控股权，预计交易将在2024年第二季度完成。这笔交易使英特尔获得了110亿美元的资金，为其大规模扩张计划提供了更多可行空间。

涉嫌操纵市场？散户“带头大哥”遭美国监管机构调查

三年前领导了meme股运动的散户带头大哥Keith Gill回归之后声势不减，最近还在社交媒体上大晒上亿美元巨额$游戏驿站 (GME.US)$交割单，号召散户们买入，全新的meme股炒作狂潮似乎正在酝酿之中。但坏消息是，他的交易活动已经引起了美国马萨诸塞州证券监管机构的注意。麻省州务卿比尔·加尔文办公室的一名发言人对媒体表示，证券部门正在调查Gill的行为。

CrowdStrike Q1业绩、Q2及全年指引均超预期

$CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$第一季度营收为9.21亿美元，同比增长33%，好于分析师预期的9.05亿美元。展望未来，CrowdStrike预计，第二季度营收为9.58亿美元至9.61亿美元，好于分析师预期的9.54亿美元；预计调整后的每股收益为0.98美元至0.99美元，好于分析师预期的0.91美元。该公司预计，2025财年全年营收为39.76亿美元至40.11亿美元，好于分析师预期的39.7亿美元。截至发稿，该股盘前涨超11%。

流媒体“涨声一片”，华纳兄弟探索频道上调Max订阅价格

随着多家流媒体平台的会员费上涨，$Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.US)$旗下的Max周二宣布提高无广告订阅套餐的价格。这一举动发生在HBO《权力的游戏》前传《龙之屋》第二季首播前的12天，该系列剧首播吸引了近1000万观众，成为HBO历史上观看人数最多的剧集。

AI服务器需求旺盛，拉动慧与科技Q2业绩超预期

$慧与科技 (HPE.US)$Q2营收为72亿美元，同比增长3.3%，超出分析师一致预期。公司Q2 Non-GAAP每股收益(不包括部分项目)为42美分，超出分析师平均预期的39美分。Q2强劲的业绩主要受益于为处理人工智能而构建的服务器销量大幅飙升，该业务收入为38.7亿美元，大超分析师平均预期的34.5亿美元。截至发稿，该股盘前涨超14%。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前普涨

水滴公司2024年Q1营收7.05亿元，连续9个季度盈利

$水滴 (WDH.US)$净营业收入7.05亿元，同比增长16.3%；归母净利润8063万元，同比增长62.2%，实现连续9个季度盈利。此外，从2021年9月宣布启动股票回购计划以来，截至2024年5月31日，水滴公司累计从公开市场回购约4550万股ADS(美国存托凭证)。截至发稿，该股盘前涨近8%。

斗鱼2024年Q1营收10.4亿，广告及其他收入占比提升至23%

2024年Q1，$斗鱼 (DOYU.US)$移动端平均MAU为4530万，总付费用户数为340万。总营收10.4亿元人民币，其中广告及其他业务收入为2.39亿元，收入贡献占比上升至23%。本季度斗鱼录得净亏损8800万元，调整后净亏损为8570万元。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

21:45 美国标普全球服务业PMI终值

22:00 美国ISM非制造业PMI

22:30 美国当周EIA原油库存(万桶)

编辑/rubyliu

Global macro

Non-farm data is lower than expected, and the three major futures indices have narrowed their gains.

In May, the US ADP employment increased by 152,000 people, expected to increase by 175,000 people, and the previous value increased by 192,000 people. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 4.312%, the lowest level since April 5. As of press time, the gains of the three major indices narrowed, with the Nasdaq up 0.48% and the S&P 500 up 0.24%.

With the expectation of interest rate cut, American bond traders have once again favored doves and betted on benefiting from the accelerated rate cuts from the Fed. The swap trader has now brought forward the expectation of the Fed's first comprehensive rate cut of 25 basis points from December to November. In the spot market, JPMorgan's US Treasury client survey shows that direct long positions have risen to the highest level since March, another sign of positive momentum.

Bond traders have once again turned to a dovish stance and bet that the Federal Reserve will accelerate its rate cut, which will push US bonds higher. A report on Tuesday showed that the number of job vacancies in the United States unexpectedly fell. Swap traders are currently bringing forward expectations for the Fed's first comprehensive rate cut of 25 basis points from December to November. In the spot market, JPMorgan's US government bond client survey shows that direct long positions have risen to their highest level since March, further displaying positive momentum.

Why is the Fed "eager" to cut interest rates? Goldman Sachs trader: the labor market is deteriorating.

On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs trader Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli pointed out in his latest report that the prospect of a recent Fed rate cut is more likely to be driven by the US labor market than by a decline in inflation. At present, swap market data shows that traders are bringing forward expectations for the Fed's first rate cut of 25 basis points from December to November. Tuesday's announcement of the April JOLTS job vacancy number in the United States was far lower than expected, combined with the previous unexpected sharp drop in non-farm employment, indicating signs of cooling in the labor market.

Morgan Stanley's alarm: the speculation of "meme stocks" is not a good sign, and US stocks may face a sharp decline.

Morgan Stanley's chief global market strategist, Marco Kolanovic, believes that the recovery of "meme stocks" is a bad sign for US stocks. Even though the S&P 500 index is approaching its historical high, Kolanovic reiterated his bearish view of US stocks in a report on Monday. The strategist's target price for the S&P 500 index is 4200 points, the lowest among Wall Street analysts, indicating that US stocks have a potential downside of 20% from their current level.

"Others are afraid, while I am greedy!" After a $400 billion drop, multiple funds choose to buy India's stock market.

In the just-concluded election, the political party led by Indian Prime Minister Modi lost a majority in the lower house of parliament, but several global fund managers said that the reason to invest in India's stock market has not changed. Arun Sai, a senior multi-asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management, believes that Tuesday's nearly $400 billion drop in India's stock market is another opportunity to invest in India's stock market. Sai's view has been echoed by many fund managers and analysts. The head of the wealth management department at French bank BNP Paribas said that the market's response to the election results is shortsighted.

Hot news

Growth tech stocks rose before the market.

Nvidia's AI chips are very popular, and Taiwan Semiconductor, the chip contract manufacturer, also wants to get a bigger share of the pie. On Tuesday, Wei Zhejia, the new chairman of Taiwan Semiconductor, hinted that he was considering raising the price of the company's AI chip foundry services. He said that he had discussed this issue with Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun.

With its share price falling by 29.5% this year, the market has questioned Musk's multi-line operations strategy and its impact on the company's future. As CEO of Tesla, Musk also manages SpaceX, Neuralink, The Boring Co., as well as his recently acquired social media platform X (formerly Twitter) and AI startup xAI.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$It is reported that Apple is in talks with China Mobile, and China Mobile will provide Apple TV+ services through set-top boxes, charge monthly fees, and share subscription revenue between the two parties. The video content may be launched on Migu Video. Currently, the subscription fee for Apple TV+ in the United States is $9.99 per month. Reports predict that the subscription fee in China will be lower than this level.

Apple TV to enter China? Reportedly, Apple is negotiating with China Mobile.

It is reported that $Apple (AAPL.US)$Intel sells 49% stake in its Irish fab for $11 billion to ease financial worries.

Nvidia questioned Tesla's transfer of AI chips to X, and Musk responded in a post.

Elon Musk confirmed that he had transferred the purchased AI chips from NVIDIA to X and AI companies, and responded to the questions about Tesla's procurement plan in internal emails.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$has been transferred to X and xAI companies, and has responded to the reasons for the transfer and $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$doubts about Tesla's procurement plan in internal emails.

Intel sells 49% stake in its Irish fab for $11 billion to ease financial worries.

According to a statement issued by Intel on Tuesday, the company will sell 49% of the entities related to its Irish Fab 34 chip factory. Intel will retain 51% of its stake, thereby retaining control of the company, and the transaction is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2024. This transaction will provide Intel with $11 billion in funding and provide more feasible space for its large-scale expansion plan.$Intel (INTC.US)$The company's overall sales volume of 18,000 kiloliters, +28.10% year-on-year, significant growth. Product structure, 10-30 billion yuan products operating income of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Suspected market manipulation? The leading brother of retail investors is being investigated by US regulatory institutions.

Keith Gill, the leader of the meme stock movement three years ago, is still going strong after his return, recently boasting billions of dollars on social media. Bad news is, his trading activities have caught the attention of the Massachusetts securities regulator. Secretary of State Bill Galvin's office spokesperson told the media that the securities division is investigating Gill's behavior, and the investigation is ongoing.$GameStop (GME.US)$The delivery order called on retailers to buy, and a new meme stock frenzy appears to be brewing. But the bad news is that his trading activity has drawn the attention of the Massachusetts securities regulator in the United States. A spokesman for Massachusetts Secretary of State Bill Galvin's office told the media that the securities department is investigating Gill's behavior.

CrowdStrike's Q1 revenue was $921 million, up 33% year on year, better than analysts' expected $905 million. Going forward, CrowdStrike expects Q2 revenue to be between $958 million and $961 million, better than analysts' expected $954 million; adjusted EPS is expected to be between $0.98 and $0.99, better than analysts' expected $0.91. The company expects full-year revenue for fiscal year 2025 to be between $3.976 billion and $4.011 billion, better than analysts' expected $3.97 billion. The stock rose over 11% before the deadline.

$CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$Q2 revenue was $7.2 billion, up 3.3% year-over-year, beating analysts' consensus. The company's Q2 Non-GAAP EPS (excluding certain items) was 42 cents per share, beating analysts' average estimate of 39 cents per share. The strong Q2 results were mainly due to a sharp rise in sales of servers built for processing artificial intelligence, which generated revenue of $3.87 billion, significantly exceeding analysts' average expectations of $3.45 billion. The stock rose more than 14% before the deadline.

As several streaming platforms raise their membership fees,

Warner Bros. Discovery's Max raised the price of its ad-free subscription package on Tuesday. The move comes 12 days before the second season of HBO's Game of Thrones prequel House of the Dragon premieres, which drew nearly 10 million viewers on its first airing and became the most-watched series in HBO history.$Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.US)$In the face of a booming demand for AI servers, HPE's Q2 earnings exceeded expectations. Q2 revenue was $7.2 billion, up 3.3% year-over-year, beating analysts' consensus. The company's Q2 Non-GAAP EPS (excluding certain items) was 42 cents per share, beating analysts' average estimate of 39 cents per share. The strong Q2 results were mainly due to a sharp rise in sales of servers built for processing artificial intelligence, which generated revenue of $3.87 billion, significantly exceeding analysts' average expectations of $3.45 billion. The stock rose more than 14% before the deadline.

China concept stocks are up across the board.

$Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE.US)$In the face of a booming demand for AI servers, HPE's Q2 earnings exceeded expectations. Q2 revenue was $7.2 billion, up 3.3% year-over-year, beating analysts' consensus. The company's Q2 Non-GAAP EPS (excluding certain items) was 42 cents per share, beating analysts' average estimate of 39 cents per share. The strong Q2 results were mainly due to a sharp rise in sales of servers built for processing artificial intelligence, which generated revenue of $3.87 billion, significantly exceeding analysts' average expectations of $3.45 billion. The stock rose more than 14% before the deadline.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

China concept stocks are up across the board.

Waterdrop Q1 revenue was RMB 705 million, up 16.3% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 80.63 million, up 62.2% YoY. In addition, since announcing its share repurchase plan in September 2021, Waterdrop has repurchased about 45.5 million ADSs from the public market as of May 31, 2024. The stock rose nearly 8% before the deadline.

$Waterdrop (WDH.US)$Waterdrop Q1 revenue was RMB 705 million, up 16.3% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 80.63 million, up 62.2% YoY. In addition, since announcing its share repurchase plan in September 2021, Waterdrop has repurchased about 45.5 million ADSs from the public market as of May 31, 2024. The stock rose nearly 8% before the deadline.

In Q1 2024,

Q1 2024,$DouYu (DOYU.US)$At 21:45, S&P Global Services PMI in the US final value. At 22:00, US ISM non-manufacturing PMI. At 22:30, US EIA crude oil inventory (10,000 barrels).

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

21:45 US S&P Global Services PMI Final Value.

22:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

22:30 US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks (10000 barrels).

Edit/rubyliu

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