Due to the fact that BC technology is a platform-level technology, after weighing the cost and conversion efficiency, domestic BC technology leading companies, Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy and Longi Green Energy, respectively bet on the ABC and HPBC technology routes, and subsequent HBC technology routes may be the long-term development direction.
Zhongyin International released a research report, stating that in recent years, with the decrease in cost and improvement in process maturity, the industrialization of BC battery technology has accelerated. On the one hand, benefiting from the more complex production process of BC components, the unit value of equipment such as coating, laser, and thermal diffusion has increased significantly, and it is expected to benefit faster from the expansion of industry capacity. On the other hand, leading component and battery manufacturers who are leading in BC technology and capacity layout are also expected to meet the needs of high-end markets with the advantages of product performance, and enjoy the dividend of leading technology. Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy (600732.SH) and Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) are recommended, and Deir Laser Technology (300776.SZ) and Inno Laser (301021.SZ) are suggested for attention.
The main viewpoints of CICC are as follows:
xBC route has significant efficiency advantages and is expected to become a new generation of platform-type technology.
BC technology is a technology that places positive and negative poles on the back of solar cells. Its unobstructed front structure can increase the effective light-receiving area of the module by about 4%-5%, driving the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic modules to increase by about 1%. Since BC batteries improve efficiency by changing structural design, while other mainstream new technology routes focus on enhancing passivation and reducing compounding, BC technology can be used as a platform technology with other new technologies superimposed, bringing continuous efficiency improvement.
The core process differences of xBC are reflected in front side passivation, graphic formation, and metallization, while the differences between xBC are mainly reflected in substrate materials and passivation methods: generally speaking, back contact solar cells require lower surface compound speed, so higher front surface passivation is required; at the same time, since the back-emitting electrode is alternately composed of two heavily doped regions, its preparation process involves repeated coating, etching, and slotting.
Due to the reasons mentioned above, the value of diffusion, coating, and laser equipment in the production line of BC solar cells has increased significantly. However, as BC technology is a platform-level technology, after weighing the cost and conversion efficiency, domestic BC technology leading companies, Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy and Longi Green Energy, respectively bet on the ABC and HPBC technology routes, and subsequent HBC technology routes may be the long-term development direction.
xBC technology is gradually being industrialized, and equipment suppliers are the first to benefit.
The unit investment amount of BC battery equipment is around 300-400 million yuan/GW, significantly higher than the level of less than 200 million yuan/GW for TOPCo. Among them, the unit value of equipment such as coating, laser, and thermal diffusion has increased significantly. According to the announcement of Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy, the unit investment amounts of chemical vapor deposition coating equipment, photolithography treatment equipment, and thermal diffusion and doping equipment in its 15GW production line in Yiwu Phase VI are 96 million yuan/GW, 57 million yuan/GW, and 30 million yuan/GW, respectively. Zhongyin International predicts that the newly added BC capacity in 2024-2025 is expected to reach 60GW and 70GW, and the corresponding market space for laser equipment is expected to reach 3.4 billion yuan and 3.5 billion yuan, respectively. The market space for film deposition equipment is expected to reach 4 billion yuan and 4.3 billion yuan, respectively.
Distributed products have premium capacity, and centralized products may gradually become economical.
In the high-end distributed market, BC components have a premium of more than 0.20 US dollars/W compared with traditional PERC components, reflecting its aesthetic value recognition. Subsequently, BC components are expected to continuously improve their market share in specific application scenarios based on this advantage. In the centralized market, the economy of BC components has gradually improved; with the increase in double-sided rate to 70%, Zhongyin International predicts that BC components have been able to rely on the positive conversion efficiency gain to make up for the power loss of the back-end power generation. With the improvement of product yield, it is also expected to further narrow the cost difference between BC batteries and TOPCo batteries.
Risk factors: international trade friction risks, price competition exceeding expectations, unfavorable fluctuations in raw material prices, new technology cost reduction speed slower than expected, technology iteration risks, policy expectations not being met, power absorption risks, and investment growth slowing down.