Overall, domestic clothing consumption is stable, and e-commerce channels have performed well. As the growth rate of consumption slowed down after the second half of May last year, it is expected that the pressure will gradually ease in the future and the growth turning point will be expected to arrive. The subsequent flow growth is expected to speed up this year.
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guosen Securities released a research report stating that Vietnamese textile exports continued to rebound in May, and international brand inventory gradually returned to health and OEM **** companies' monthly revenue improved in the first quarter. In terms of brand apparel, domestic clothing consumption is stable, and e-commerce channels have performed well. As the growth rate of consumption slowed down after the second half of May last year, it is expected that the pressure will gradually ease in the future and the growth turning point will be expected to arrive. The subsequent flow growth is expected to speed up this year.
The first wave of online 618 sales has ended, and vipshop's women's clothing sales have increased by more than 45% year-on-year. The Tmall sales ranking is out, and the top three sports and outdoor brands are Nike, FILA, and Adidas. Compared with last year, FILA rose from third to second, and 361 Degrees entered the top ten. The top three men's clothing stores are Uniqlo, HLA Group Corp., and Ningbo Peacebird Fashion. Compared with last year, Taiping year rose from fifth to third in men's clothing, entered the top ten in women's clothing, and TeenieWeenie's women's clothing ranking rose from sixth to fourth; the top three mother and baby brands are bcbabycare, Balabala, and NIKEKIDS, and Balabala rose from third to second; the top three home and bedding stores are Luolai, Shuimeng, and Yadu Planet, and Luolai and Shuimeng maintained their rankings from last year.
From macro data, textile and apparel exports in Vietnam continued to rebound in May, with cumulative growth of 3.3% and 7.1% respectively from January to May, and a year-on-year increase of 3.8% and flat in May alone. Affected by the base period, China's textile/clothing exports in April decreased by 4.3%/9.1% respectively. Compared with March, the decline narrowed, and textile exports increased by 1.2% from January to April, and clothing exports were flat year-on-year.
From micro data, international brand inventory is gradually returning to health, and inventory in the first quarter has further decreased month-on-month and year-on-year; the revenue of OEM **** companies has improved in the first quarter, fluctuated in April, but the capacity utilization rate is still at a relatively high level and the order expectation for the whole year is optimistic.
Recommendation symbol:
Textile manufacturing: Key recommendation of Shenzhou International Group Holdings Limited Unsponsored ADR (02313), a sportswear leader with high order visibility and low-valuation at the bottom of the range, and Huali Group (300979.SZ). At the same time, it is recommended to have a good performance, and high-quality manufacturing leaders with large medium- to long-term growth potential in sub-sectors, such as Weixing Industrial Development (002003.SZ), Zhejiang Xinao Textiles Inc. (603889.SH), and Zhejiang Jasan Holding Group (603558.SH).
Brand apparel: Hong Kong stocks, weak recovery expectations are fully adjusted, and key recommendations are sportswear leaders with healthy operational indicators such as Anta Sports (02020), Li Ning (02331), TOPSPORTS (06110), as well as low-valuation leading down jacket brand Bosideng (03998). In A share market, key recommendations are high-quality men's clothing leaders with high operational quality and healthy inventory, low valuations, and maintained certain growth momentum such as Biem.l.fdlkk garment (002832.SZ), Baoxiniao Holding (002154.SZ), and HLA Group Corp. (600398.SH).
Risk warning: macroeconomic weakness; risks of international political and economic situation; large fluctuations in exchange rates and raw material prices.