According to the information obtained from the Intelligent Financial APP, on June 5th, China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing pointed out that the momentum of the logistics business demand growth slowed down in May, but the foundation is still stable. The total business volume index in May was 51.8%, which has been in the expansion range for multiple months in a row. The small decline this month is mainly affected by factors such as the concentrated release of upstream and downstream demand in the previous supply chain and the weak demand momentum in some regions. Looking at different regions, the business total volume index in the three major regions are all in the expansion range, but have been differentiated. The central region is higher than the national level, reaching 52.4%, and the eastern and western regions have respectively increased by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, but are lower than the national level. The supporting effect of Eastern region's demand recovery is weakening.

Original text:

The logistics industry prosperity index for May 2024 shows that the business demand growth has slowed down while overall remains in the expansion range.

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing published the logistics industry prosperity index for May 2024, which is 51.8%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Key indicators such as the total business volume index, inventory turnover index, capital turnover rate index, fixed asset investment completion index, and business activity expectation index are all in the prosperity range, while the fixed asset investment completion index, number of employees index and business activity expectation index show a continuous upward trend.

Although the growth of business demand slowed down, the foundation of logistics remains stable. The total business volume index in May was 51.8%, which has been in the expansion range for multiple months in a row. The small decline this month is mainly affected by factors such as the concentrated release of upstream and downstream demand in the previous supply chain and the weak demand momentum in some regions. Looking at different regions, the business total volume index in the three major regions are all in the expansion range, but have been differentiated. The central region is higher than the national level, reaching 52.4%, and the eastern and western regions have respectively increased by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, but are lower than the national level. The supporting effect of Eastern region's demand recovery is weakening.

The overall trend of subdivided professional fields remain upward, while some industries have fluctuated. Thanks to the small "Labor Day" holiday at the beginning of the month and mid-year online promotion activities, the influx of travelers visiting relatives and friends increased, and online shopping activities ushered in a small peak, leading to a significant increase in logistics demand from residents' consumption. The total business volume index for postal express delivery in May was 70.3%, an increase of 1 percentage point compared to the previous month, and the surveyed e-commerce platform enterprise express delivery packages increased by about 5% compared to the previous month. The total business volume index for road transportation was 52.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. According to the survey, this is mainly due to faster turnover in the consumer goods sector as chain stores and supermarkets actively stock up, and e-commerce trunk transportation business rebounds. The total business volume index for railway transportation fell by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, but has remained in the expansion range. The water transportation and aviation transportation industries continued to improve. The total business volume index of water transportation increased by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the total business volume index of air transportation remained at a high level of around 55%, with air logistics business gradually approaching normal levels. However, the prosperity of some industries has fluctuated. The total business volume index of warehousing, loading and unloading, and railway transportation industries has declined more significantly than the previous month.

Operational indicators have fallen, and micro-enterprises still need to pay attention to the development of their operations. Micro-enterprise operational vitality has declined, and related operating indicators have fluctuated. In May, the equipment utilization rate index dropped below 50%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. The capital turnover rate index fell by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Looking at different enterprise scales, the trend of slowing down on the capital turnover rate for small and micro-enterprises is more obvious, and the situation of tight capital continues. Compared to the previous month, the primary business profit index has fallen by 1.2 percentage points, and the gap between the profit levels and risk resistance abilities of large, medium-sized and small micro-enterprises has widened.

The market outlook is generally stable, investment is accelerating, but new demand needs further release. Since the beginning of this year, the enterprise activity expectation index has remained at a high level of around 55% for 4 consecutive months, and enterprises are still bullish on high-quality integrated development areas such as railway transportation, aviation transportation, postal express delivery, and integrated supply chains, maintaining stable expectations. Logistics investment is steadily increasing. The fixed asset investment completion index for May increased by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the investment growth rate and investment expectations are stable and gradually improving. Among different industries, the fixed asset investment completion indexes for railway transportation, aviation transportation, pipeline transportation, and postal express delivery are in the expansion range. However, new demand still needs further release. The new order index for May was 52.7%, a decrease of 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. The new order index in the western region increased by 0.2 percentage points, while in the central and eastern regions, the new order indexes decreased by 0.2 and 1 percentage points, respectively. The slowdown of new demand in the loading and unloading business is more pronounced.

Currently, the main problems facing us are unstable demand, slowing growth, and weak corporate profits. We need to pay close attention to the micro-experience of relevant policies for supporting enterprises, strengthen tracking and investigation, and timely understand the business and fund needs of enterprises, especially in industries with long industrial chains and many supporting links, such as autos manufacturing, home appliances manufacturing, electronic machinery manufacturing, pharmaceutical products, and transportation equipment manufacturing. We need to strengthen information docking and assist with resource docking.