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富途早报 | 美国劳动力市场降温!掉期定价美联储降息提前至11月

Futu Morning News | US labor market cools down! Forward pricing for Fed interest rate cut brought forward to November

Futu News ·  Jun 5 08:18

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  • With the expectation of interest rate cut, American bond traders have once again favored doves and betted on benefiting from the accelerated rate cuts from the Fed. The swap trader has now brought forward the expectation of the Fed's first comprehensive rate cut of 25 basis points from December to November. In the spot market, JPMorgan's US Treasury client survey shows that direct long positions have risen to the highest level since March, another sign of positive momentum.

As US Treasury bounced back, bond traders once again lean towards doves and bet on benefiting from the accelerated pace of the Fed's rate cuts. Swap traders have brought forward their expectations of a 25 basis points rate cut by the Fed from December to November. In the spot market, JPMorgan's survey of US Treasury clients showed that direct long positions had risen to their highest levels since March, another sign of positive momentum.

  • The US labor market is steadily cooling down! The JOLTS job opening report for April unexpectedly hit a three-year low.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report on Wednesday showing that the country's job vacancies fell to the lowest level in more than three years in April, well below expectations. The latest JOLTS data confirms the gradual slowdown in the US labor market. In April, the JOLTS job vacancy was 8.059 million, the lowest level since February 2021, when the number of job vacancies was less than 8 million. The market expectation was 8.35 million, lower than the estimate of all economists surveyed by the media. The value before March was revised down from 8.488 million to 8.36 million.

  • Strategists warn: US stocks may fall 10% in the future.

According to a Stifel strategist, the stock market will see a sell-off in the coming months, with the S&P 500 index falling 10%. He warned that the mixed state of the economy would weaken the US stock market, making it unlikely that the Fed would cut interest rates as investors hoped. He predicted that the Fed officials would not be able to loosen monetary policy by 2024, as the US economy seems to be experiencing a "mild stagflation."

  • Biden: Trump is a convicted felon and is not fit to be president.

US President Biden said that, given former President Donald Trump's conviction as a felon, he poses an even greater threat to the United States if elected president again. This is Biden's sharpest attack yet on Trump's criminal case. Last week, a New York court jury ruled Trump guilty in the "hush-money" case, with all 34 felony charges upheld. Each charge carries a maximum sentence of four years' imprisonment, putting Trump at risk of a maximum sentence of 20 years' imprisonment. The judgment is set to be pronounced on July 11th.

  • Galaxy Digital CEO: Bitcoin is expected to rise to $100,000 or higher by the end of 2024.

Galaxy Digital's founder and CEO Michael Novogratz said that a more positive political environment for digital assets in the USA may help push bitcoin to reach a record-breaking $100,000 by the end of this year, or even higher. He said in an interview, "If the bitcoin price rises to $73,000 in the next few weeks, it will rise to $100,000 or higher by the end of this year."

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

  • The three major indices collectively rose, and Nvidia hit another historic high.

The three major US stock indices rose slightly, with the Dow up 0.36%, the Nasdaq up 0.17%, and the S&P 500 index up 0.15%.

The trend of celebrity tech stocks is divergent, with Nvidia up more than 1% to a new high, and Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Apple up slightly. Tesla, Netflix, Intel, and Meta fell slightly.

Most of the popular Chinese stocks fell, with the Nasdaq China Dragon Index down 0.99%. IQIYI and Nio fell more than 2%, Li Auto fell more than 1%, Baidu, PDD Holdings, and Xpeng fell slightly. Bilibili rose more than 1%, Alibaba, JD.com, and NetEase rose slightly.

  • The US securities regulator is investigating the trading activity of GameStop's Roaring Kitty on the gaming station.

The securities regulator in Massachusetts, USA is investigating.$GameStop (GME.US)$The Massachusetts securities regulator is investigating the trading activity, and a spokesperson for the agency confirmed that it is investigating the activities of GameStop investor Keith Gill. Earlier, a post on Reddit claimed to show that Gill, also known as "Roaring Kitty", has built a $181 million position on the gaming station.

  • It is reported that Musk's procurement plan for AI chips for Tesla is exaggerating, and Musk responded.

According to the media,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$According to media reports, an internal email shows that Musk instructed Nvidia to prioritize his social media company X and AI startup xAI for the tens of thousands of H100 chips originally reserved for Tesla, instead of Intel. This has delayed Tesla's receipt of over $500 million worth of GPUs. Musk countered that Tesla does not have the appropriate facility to activate those Nvidia chips, so they will just idle in the warehouse. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$which led to Tesla delaying the receipt of more than $500 million worth of GPUs. Musk retaliated, saying that Tesla did not have suitable facilities to activate those Nvidia chips, so they would only remain idle in warehouses.

  • During the ChatGPT strike, Google Gemini had a layoff, with search volume soaring by 60%.

On June 4th local time, OpenAI's ChatGPT suddenly went down due to a system failure. During the interruption of ChatGPT service, a large number of users around the world sought alternatives and flooded into other AI platforms. This surge in traffic resulted in a domino effect, leading to...$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$Gemini, Claude and Perplexity, among other large models under the umbrella of AnthropicAI, have consecutively crashed. According to analysis by QR Code Generator, within four hours of ChatGPT's first malfunction, Google AI chatbot Gemini's search volume surged by 60%, reaching 32.7 times.

  • CrowdStrike's Q1 revenue of $921 million exceeded analysts' expectations of $904.7 million. The company is expected to generate between $3.98 billion and $4.01 billion in revenue for the full year, up from its previous forecast of $3.92 billion to $3.99 billion. At the time of publication, CrowdStrike's stock had risen nearly 7% after hours.

TOP20 US stock trading volume$Intel (INTC.US)$In Northern Hemisphere Sweep, China Mobile and Yankuang Energy each purchased approximately HKD 1 billion, while Tencent significantly increased its holdings by more than HKD 900 million. On June 4 (Tuesday), Southbound funds were net buyers of HKD 8.824 billion in Hong Kong stocks. China Mobile and Yankuang Energy received net purchases of HKD 1.011 billion, HKD 997 million, and HKD 908 million, respectively; China Construction Bank Corporation was net sold HKD 179 million, HKD 131 million, and HKD 53.63 million, respectively.

  • On Wednesday, economic data including China's May Caixin Services PMI, the United States' May ADP Employment and May ISM Non-manufacturing PMI, as well as the United States' EIA Crude Oil Stocks as of May 31st will be released.

$CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$ChargePoint will announce its performance.

If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

  • -Jesse Livermore

On Tuesday June 4th, the net southbound capital bought 8.824 billion Hong Kong dollars worth of Hong Kong stocks.

$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$, $YANKUANG ENERGY (01171.HK)$, $TENCENT (00700.HK)$They respectively received net purchases of 1.011 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.997 billion Hong Kong dollars and 0.908 billion Hong Kong dollars.

$MMG (01208.HK)$, $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$, $CCB (00939.HK)$Key words: Caixin Services PMI, ADP Employment, and ISM Non-manufacturing PMI.

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Apollo Global Management will acquire equity in Ireland's Fab 34 semiconductor factory joint venture for $11 billion from Intel.

On Wednesday, economic data will be released, including China's May Caixin Services PMI, US May ADP Employment Numbers, US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and US EIA Crude Oil Inventories up to May 31.

Regarding financial reports,$Lululemon Athletica (LULU.US)$, $ChargePoint (CHPT.US)$If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.

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Futubull Morning News:

-Jesse Livermore

Gemini, Claude, Perplexity, and other large models under the auspices of AnthropicAI have successively failed. According to the analysis of QR Code Generator, the search volume of Google's AI chatbot Gemini surged 60%, reaching 32.7 times within four hours after ChatGPT's first outage.

Editor/tolk

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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