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米奥会展(300795):发布股权激励草案 看好公司长期成长

Miao Exhibition (300795): Release of draft equity incentives to be optimistic about the company's long-term growth

華西證券 ·  Jun 4, 2024 12:46

Incident Overview

The company released the “2024 Restricted Stock Incentive Plan (Draft)”, which we believe is expected to further stimulate business enthusiasm, enhance team stability, and help long-term development.

Analytical judgment:

The company issued an equity incentive plan (draft), and the target value growth rate is in line with expectations:

This draft equity incentive plan assesses revenue or deducts net profit that is not attributable to the mother. The completion rate of 80% or more can be unlocked on a proportional basis. According to the draft equity incentive plan, the 24-26 revenue assessment targets are $1,305/16.31/2.039 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 56%/25%/25% and 23-26 CAGR 35%, respectively; net profit withholding of non-return mother for 24-26 was 2.73/3.28/393 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 50%/20%/20%, respectively, and 23-26 CAGR 29% (not taking into account the amortization of equity incentive expenses). If calculated based on 80% completion, the compound revenue growth rate for 23-26 is 25%, and the compound net profit growth rate for 23-26 is 20%. We believe that this equity incentive plan sets high targets for both revenue and profit, which will help the company further consolidate operating barriers and seize market size.

The equity incentives cover 208 people and are expected to stimulate business vitality to a greater extent:

The exhibition is a labor-intensive industry. The equity incentive plan was awarded to 208 people. For the first time, 3.13 million shares were awarded, accounting for 1.37% of the total share capital, including executives and core business technicians, accounting for 22% of the total number of employees at the end of 2023. The scale is higher than the equity incentive plans launched by the company in 2021 and 2022, which is expected to further stimulate business vitality.

? Incentives are relatively low and have little impact on profits:

The equity incentive was granted at a price of 10.61 yuan/share. According to the draft equity incentive plan, the total cost of this equity incentive is 31.73 million yuan, and the estimated amortization expenses for 2024-2027 are 1064/1290/635/1.83 million yuan, respectively.

The company has deep barriers, an excellent business model, and a medium- to long-term high-growth exhibition. We believe that the company will continue to enjoy racetrack dividends. At the same time, the company has outstanding resources, flexible management strategies, and high growth in the medium to long term. 1) The company is a leader in outreach and has deep operating barriers. According to the company's annual report, the company's overseas exhibition area, number of exhibitors, number of booths, etc. all accounted for more than 50% of the parameters of the overseas exhibition project approved and implemented in 2023, ranking first among domestic exhibitors organizing overseas exhibitions. The first-mover advantage in IP, pavilion resources, and overseas layout is remarkable. 2) Continued promotion of specialization and internationalization to help long-term growth. The specialized layout is gradually taking shape, organizing industry forums, empowering Chinese manufacturers and Chinese brands to go global, serve more suppliers on the basis of deep industry cultivation, expand the scale of professional exhibitions, and attract more professional buyers to participate in the company's professional exhibitions, forming a virtuous circle. The company invested in the establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary in Singapore and set up a company in Indonesia to help develop the RCEP national exhibition business. The exhibitors are expected to gradually expand to overseas foreign trade enterprises. 3) Digital construction enables exhibition upgrades. According to the company's annual report, the company has achieved widespread use of AI in data matching, content generation, and video production, and has gradually created a data-driven digital professional exhibition to accurately connect the entire link of digital exhibition, digital exhibition, and digital exhibition viewing.

Investment advice

We maintain our previous profit forecast. We expect the company to achieve 24-26 revenue of 11.4/1.42 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 2.8/3.5/450 million yuan, and EPS of 1.21/1.53/1.94 yuan, respectively. Referring to the closing price of 22.18 yuan/share on June 4, 2024, the corresponding latest PE was 18x/14x/11x, respectively, maintaining the company's “gain” rating.

Risk warning

(1) Risks such as entry and exit restrictions and exhibition delays caused by repeated epidemics; (2) the risk of international political conflicts impacting the economies and exhibitions of countries or regions such as the “Belt and Road” and RCEP; (3) the risk of declining export trade; (4) the 2021 company was issued a warning letter due to inconsistency between the performance forecast and the final audit results.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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