ARM has made bold claims again, aiming to capture 50% of the Windows market share.

wallstreetcn · Jun 4 20:02

来源：硬AI
作者：张逸凡

在2024年的Computex展会上，$高通 (QCOM.US)$和$Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$都强调了 Win-ARM生态系统的崛起。

高通发布了骁龙X Elite/Plus平台，这一平台将广泛应用于台式机、一体机、笔记本、平板和二合一设备等各种形态的PC。高通强调，骁龙X性能、功耗大幅提升，能效是苹果M3的2.6倍，是英特尔酷睿Ultra 7 155H的5.4倍。

$微软 (MSFT.US)$、华硕、宏碁、$惠普 (HPQ.US)$、$戴尔科技 (DELL.US)$和$联想集团 (00992.HK)$等六大PC品牌的高管亲自登台，为骁龙X站台助威。

同时，ARM CEO在今日表示，“我认为，在未来五年内，ARM 在 Windows 中的市场份额可能会超过 50%。”并预测，到2025年底将有1000亿台使用ARM处理器的AI设备。

一、x86和ARM的竞争

“ARM 在 Windows 中的市场份额可能会超过 50%”，CEO的发言，让ARM在PC领域的份额变得更加清晰。

先前我们在文章《价值飙升30%，AI PC将拉动半导体出货潮丨AI脱水》中提到过，AI PC时代，处理器将逐渐从x86转向ARM架构。

主要是因为AI计算对芯片提出了“高性能、低功耗”的需求，而ARM架构相对于x86架构有这样的优势。

目前，高通、NVDA、AMD、联发科都与微软合作，并相继推出了基于ARM架构的处理器产品。

大摩此前预计到2027年，WoA（Windows on ARM） PC芯片销量将达到5000万颗，带来100亿美元的PC CPU收入。

而ARM CEO的发言，让ARM的增速再一次变得清晰 —— “五年内，份额或超五成”（当前仅一成左右）。

如果 ARM 的推动取得成功，市场将重新面临“洗牌”。对高通、联发科等多年来在ARM架构领域有着深厚沉淀的处理器厂商来讲，是巨大的机遇。

二、ARM的生态问题

Windows on ARM（WoA）早在2011年就已经提出，但由于缺乏配套生态的支持，一直没有获得成功。

理想情况下，Windows on ARM既能享受ARM架构处理器带来的低功耗和长续航优势，又能延续x86 PC用户的软件使用习惯。

多年来，由于缺乏像$苹果 (AAPL.US)$那样的软硬件一体化生态环境，在微软的Windows生态系统中，ARM的CPU仍然是一个小众玩家，仅占12.8%的份额，而x86依然占据近70%的市场份额。

三、转译层Prism的推出

为了解决ARM的生态问题，高通与微软达成合作，并推出了转译层Prism。

参考同为ARM架构的苹果，正是通过自研的Rosetta 2 转译层技术，使得开发人员在无需进行额外的开发的前提下，实现在Mac上相对无缝地运行大多数英特尔 Mac 应用。

微软也推出了转译层 —— Prism，来帮助ARM更好的兼容。

• 2021年，微软发布Windows 11 on ARM，引入x86-64位仿真技术，实现将x86指令翻译为ARM指令，使得x86应用程序能够在ARM硬件上运行。
• 2022年，微软推出ARM64版本的IDE工具Visual Studio2022正式版，方便直接编译可在Windows 11中运行的ARM程序，进一步加速Windows生态向ARM迁移。随后，.NET 6和VC + +等工具链也相继支持ARM编译。
• 2024年5月，随着 Windows 11更新，该仿真技术得到了一个新的名字 —— Prism。

根据微软公布的信息，Prism 不仅仅是旧转译技术的新名称，性能上也做了优化，转译后的应用在相同的 ARM 硬件上运行速度将提高 10% 到 20%。

然而，由于Prism增加了一层额外的指令翻译，性能通常会比原生ARM应用低。微软表示持续优化Prism，以提高仿真应用的性能和兼容性，减少运行时的开销。

四、高通芯片性能的提升

此次发布会上，高通推出了X Elite/Plus平台，并透露性能得到了大幅提升。

先前，我们在文章《高通的下一代芯片，靠“苹果”打败苹果？》中提到，高通收购了苹果芯片团队Nuvia，并将在下一代芯片骁龙X Elite以及骁龙8 Gen4使用全新的自研Oryon内核。该内核可以大大提升处理器在功耗和性能上的表现。

NUVIA的CPU 架构是世界一流的，其潜力足以与苹果竞争，甚至超越苹果。

此次发布会上，高通给出了更加具体的数字 ——

骁龙X Elite的NPU能效是苹果M3的2.6倍，是英特尔酷睿Ultra 7 155H的5.4倍。

此外，与苹果M3相比，高通的NPU带宽提升了35%，CPU性能提升了28%，电池寿命提升了19%。

可预见的是，随着ARM生态问题的逐步解决，以及高通芯片性能的加速提升，ARM在PC领域的布局将加速。也许正如Haas所预测的那样，“在未来五年内，ARM 在 Windows 中的市场份额可能会超过 50%。”

编辑/jayden

The weather is good today The weather is good today.
Author: Zhang Yifan.

At Computex 2024,$Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$ and $Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$both emphasized the rise of the Win-ARM ecosystem.

Qualcomm released the Snapdragon X Elite/Plus platform, which will be widely used in various forms of PCs such as desktops, all-in-ones, notebooks, tablets, and 2-in-1 devices. Qualcomm emphasizes that the Snapdragon X performance and power consumption have greatly improved, with an efficiency that is 2.6 times that of the Apple M3 and 5.4 times that of the Intel Core Ultra 7 155H.

$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ , Asus, Acer,$HP Inc (HPQ.US)$, $Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$ and $LENOVO GROUP (00992.HK)$Executives from six major PC brands, such as Asus, Acer, etc., personally took the stage to cheer for the Snapdragon X.

At the same time, the ARM CEO stated today, "I think that ARM's market share in Windows could exceed 50% within the next five years," and predicted that by the end of 2025, there will be 100 billion AI devices using ARM processors.

I. Competition between x86 and ARM

"ARM's market share in Windows could exceed 50%", the CEO's remarks made ARM's share in the PC field more clear.

As we mentioned in the article "Value Soared 30%, AI PCs Will Drive Semiconductor Shipments | AI Dehydration" earlier, in the AI PC era, processors will gradually shift from x86 to ARM architecture.

This is mainly because AI computing requires a "high performance, low power consumption" chip, and ARM architecture has such an advantage over x86 architecture.

Currently, Qualcomm, NVDA, AMD, MediaTek have all collaborated with Microsoft and successively released processor products based on ARM architecture.

Previously, Goldman Sachs predicted that by 2027, WoA (Windows on ARM) PC chip sales will reach 50 million units, bringing in $10 billion in PC CPU revenue.

And the ARM CEO's remarks once again made ARM's growth clear-"Within five years, the share may exceed 50%" (currently only about 10%).

If ARM's promotion is successful, the market will face a "reshuffle." For processor manufacturers like Qualcomm and Mediatek who have deep accumulation in the ARM architecture field for many years, this is a huge opportunity.

II. ARM's ecological issues

WoA was proposed as early as 2011, but it has not been successful due to the lack of supporting ecological support.

Ideally, WoA can not only enjoy the low power consumption and long battery life advantages of ARM architecture processors, but also continue the software usage habits of x86 PC users.

For many years, due to the lack of companies like$Apple (AAPL.US)$For many years, due to the lack of a software and hardware integrated ecological environment like Apple's, ARM CPUs in Microsoft's Windows ecosystem are still a niche player, accounting for only 12.8% of market share, while x86 still accounts for nearly 70% of the market share.

III. Launch of Prism Translation Layer

To solve ARM's ecological problems, Qualcomm has partnered with Microsoft to launch the Prism translation layer.

Taking Apple, which also uses ARM architecture, as a reference, it is the self-developed Rosetta 2 translation layer technology that enables developers to seamlessly run most Intel Mac applications on the Mac without the need for additional development.

Microsoft has also launched Prism, a translation layer, to better support ARM.

* In 2021, Microsoft released Windows 11 on ARM, introducing x86-64 emulation technology to translate x86 instructions into ARM instructions, enabling x86 applications to run on ARM hardware.
* In 2022, Microsoft released the ARM64 version of its IDE tool, Visual Studio 2022, enabling direct compilation of ARM programs that can run on Windows 11, further accelerating the migration of the Windows ecosystem to ARM. Subsequently, toolchains such as .NET 6 and VC++ also support ARM compilation.
* In May 2024, with the update of Windows 11, this emulation technology received a new name - Prism.

According to Microsoft's information, Prism is not only a new name for the old translation technology, but also has been optimized for performance. The speed of translated applications on the same ARM hardware will increase by 10% to 20%.

However, as Prism adds an extra layer of instruction translation, its performance is usually lower than that of native ARM applications. Microsoft said it will continue to optimize Prism to improve the performance and compatibility of emulation applications and reduce runtime overheads.

IV. Improvement of Qualcomm Chip Performance

At this press conference, Qualcomm launched the X Elite/Plus platform and revealed that its performance has been significantly improved.

As previously mentioned in our article "Qualcomm's next-generation chip, relying on "Apple" to beat Apple?", Qualcomm acquired Apple's chip team Nuvia and will use the new self-developed Oryon core in the next-generation chips Snapdragon X Elite and Snapdragon 8 Gen4. This core can greatly improve the processor's performance in power consumption and performance.

NUVIA's CPU architecture is world-class, and its potential is sufficient to compete with, or even surpass, Apple.

At this press conference, Qualcomm provided more specific numbers -

The NPU energy efficiency of Snapdragon X Elite is 2.6 times that of Apple M3 and 5.4 times that of Intel Core Ultra 7 155H.

In addition, compared with Apple M3, Qualcomm's NPU has a 35% increase in bandwidth, 28% increase in CPU performance, and 19% increase in battery life.

It is foreseeable that with the gradual solution of ARM's ecological problems and the accelerated improvement of Qualcomm's chip performance, ARM's layout in the PC field will accelerate. Perhaps as Haas predicted, "ARM's market share in Windows could exceed 50% in the next five years."

Editor / jayden

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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ARM又放豪言，要拿下Windows 50%份额