Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
With less than a week until Dragon Boat Festival, the tourism market continues to heat up. According to Meituan data, as of June 1st, the pre-order volume for cultural and tourism during the Dragon Boat Festival increased nearly 70% year-on-year. Beijing, Xi'an, Chengdu, Wuhan, Chongqing, Qingdao, Nanjing, Changsha, and Shanghai are the top 10 destinations, and Beijing, Wuhan, Xi'an, Shanghai, and Chengdu have the highest user travel enthusiasm.
According to the "2024 Dragon Boat Festival Travel Trend Report" released by Tongcheng Travel, short- and medium-haul trips are the main travel markets for the 2024 Dragon Boat Festival. Demand for short-distance travel within the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Jing-Jin-Ji and Chengdu-Chongqing city clusters and the Zhongyuan city cluster is strong.
Among them, historical and cultural cities such as Beijing, Nanjing, and Xi'an are attracting attention from tourists. The recently popular short drama "My Aletai" has driven the travel heat of Altay, Xinjiang to more than double year-on-year, and relatively niche coastal destinations such as Weihai, Beihai, and Jinzhou have attracted attention from visitors.
"New Chinese-style" travel experiences that provide in-depth experiences of Chinese history and culture are gaining attention from young users. Popular "New Chinese-style" travel methods include visits to historical museums, dragon boat viewing experiences, intangible cultural heritage experiences, historical and cultural scenic spot check-ins, and Hanfu makeup experiences.
Industry insiders say that this Dragon Boat Festival not only had a significant increase in scenic spot tickets, hotel reservations, and train ticket bookings, but also saw new trends and new experiences emerge, including folk city tours, immersive new Chinese-style tours, and urban micro-vacations, which greatly enrich the travel experience for visitors. As the beginning of the peak summer travel season, the Dragon Boat Festival holiday will accelerate the expansion and improvement of local life services consumption and contribute to the promotion of the summer tourist season in various cultural and tourism industries.
In terms of outbound travel, booking data from multiple online travel platforms shows that the popularity of outbound travel products is constantly increasing. Ctrip data show that the search popularity of outbound travel hotels has risen by 50% compared to the same period in 2019, with Japan, Thailand, China's Hong Kong and Macao regions, South Korea, and Malaysia as the popular destinations for outbound hotels.
On the Fliggy platform, the booking volumes for overseas cruises, car rentals, and package tours during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday have all doubled compared to the same period last year. Japan, Thailand, China's Hong Kong, Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore, the United States, France, China's Macao, and Australia are popular outbound destinations for this year's Dragon Boat Festival holiday. The ratio of bookings for outbound independent travel continues to maintain a trend of over 80%.
Fliggy data shows that the booking volumes for overseas car rentals and charter services during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday have increased by more than three times and one times respectively compared to the same period last year. The booking volume for international cruise products has increased by more than 12 times for the whole holiday period compared to last year.
In terms of policies, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments recently issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Equipment Upgrades in the Culture and Tourism Industry." The plan aims to guide and promote the upgrading of a batch of facilities and equipment in the national cultural and tourism sector by 2027, maintain a continuously stable growth of relevant investment, comprehensively improve service quality, and promote the high-quality development of culture and tourism. The plan mainly focuses on the upgrading and transformation of sightseeing facilities, recreational facilities, performing equipment, intelligent cultural tourism, cultural relics protection and utilization capabilities, high-tech promotion of the film industry, high-definition and ultra-high-definition equipment, and the protection of historical and cultural cities and blocks. This plan is expected to be fully bullish for the tourism industry, promote the growth of service capabilities in tourism scenic spots, and improve the consumer experience for tourists.
China International Bank report pointed out that the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Equipment Upgrades in the Culture and Tourism Industry" was issued this week, and it is expected to improve the supply quality of the cultural tourism industry and drive subsequent additions after implementation. In addition, short- and medium-haul travel may be the mainstream for Dragon Boat Festival. It is bullish on travel chains and industry-related companies with strong certainty of subsequent revenue growth.
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Editor/tolk