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How fast does nvidia's profit need to grow to maintain the current stock price momentum?

wallstreetcn · Jun 3 22:49

来源：华尔街见闻

投资者需要认清这样一个现实：目前$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$股票的交易价格已经反映了投资者对公司未来增长的预期，而这种预期甚至比华尔街分析师中最乐观的预测还要高。

在周一发表的文章中，媒体分析师Mark Hulbert警告，投资者过于乐观，英伟达未来不太可能真的实现这么快的增长。

英伟达盈利需要增长多快才能维持目前股价的强劲势头？

答案取决于两个关键假设

未来五年英伟达股票的回报率是多少？

Hulbert认为，几乎可以确定的是，假设英伟达股价还能以过去1年（176%）或5年（年化100%）的惊人速度增长是不现实的。随着公司的发展，增长率不可避免地会下降。

保守一点，Hulbert假设英伟达股票未来五年的年化增长率为 50%，许多乐观的投资者预期未来几年能维持三位数的增长。

英伟达五年后的市盈率是多少？

根据最新财年的收益，英伟达目前的市盈率为93。然而，高市盈率不会永远保持下去，因此，Hulbert预计，英伟达的市盈率在2029年中期几乎肯定会下降。

Hulbert假设该公司五年后的市盈率为50。这也是保守的，因为半导体巨头的市盈率一般低于50，而且假设的目标市盈率越低，要求的EPS增速就越高。

根据以上假设——未来5年英伟达股价年化增长率为50%，市盈率为50，Hulbert计算出，英伟达每股收益（EPS）需要以70%的年增长率增长，才能使其股价保持强劲的增长势头，比华尔街分析师30%的预期高出一倍多。

如果英伟达EPS按30%的速度增长，其股价年化增长率也只有15.2%，也低于多数投资者的预期。

乘着AI的东风，英伟达股价过去一年暴涨180%，市值一度达到2.8万亿美元，距离超越$苹果 (AAPL.US)$仅一步之遥。然而，一旦未来的盈利增长不及投资者预期，英伟达股价就可能下跌。

高通是前车之鉴

$高通 (QCOM.US)$股价曾在1999年暴涨26倍，风头一时无两，但在此后表现令人失望。

Research Affiliates的研究计算出，从1999年到2022年底，其年化回报率仅为2.8%——不到$标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$回报率的一半。

在这期间的二十三年里，高通销售额和EPS年复合增长率分别达到14%和19%。而且，目前的利润是2000年高点时的60倍。

一只销售额和利润增长“惊人”的股票怎么会落后市场这么多呢？

根据Research Affiliates的研究，答案是：“好消息已经完全反映在股价中了！”

英伟达会重蹈高通覆辙吗？

一项研究发现，公司盈利连续几年以高于中位数的速度增长的情况非常罕见。注意，超过中位数的门槛比30%的年化增长水平要低得多（根据概率学，随机情况下有一半公司盈利能跑赢中位数）。

这项研究发表于二十年前，题为《增长率的水平和持续性》，由伊利诺伊大学和LSV资产管理公司共同完成。研究人员分析了1950年代以来所有美国上市股票，跨过中位数门槛的公司数量并不多。二十年后，Verdad Research的一项研究得出了相同的结论。

这意味着，英伟达盈利保持近期增长速度的概率并不比抛硬币高。Hulbert写道，即使英伟达能跑赢概率，股价也不太可能持续以近期惊人的速度上涨。

编辑/jayden

Source: Wall Street See

Investors need to recognize one reality: currently$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$the trading price of stocks has reflected investors' expectations for the company's future growth, and this expectation is even higher than the most optimistic predictions of Wall Street analysts.

In an article published on Monday, media analyst Mark Hulbert warned that investors are too optimistic and it is unlikely that Nvidia will achieve such rapid growth in the future.

How fast does Nvidia's profit need to grow to sustain its current strong momentum in stock price?

The answer depends on two key assumptions.

What is the rate of return for Nvidia's stocks in the next five years?

Hulbert believes that it is almost certain that it is unrealistic to assume that Nvidia's stock price will continue to grow at an astonishing rate of 176% in the past year or 100% annualized in the past five years as the company develops and the growth rate is inevitably going to decline.

Being conservative, Hulbert assumes that Nvidia's stock price will have an annual growth rate of 50% in the next five years, while many optimistic investors expect triple-digit growth in the coming years.

What will be Nvidia's P/E ratio in five years?

According to the latest fiscal year's earnings, Nvidia's P/E ratio is currently 93. However, high P/E ratios will not last forever; thus, Hulbert expects Nvidia's P/E ratio to almost certainly decline in mid-2029.

Hulbert assumes that Nvidia's P/E ratio in five years will be 50. This is also conservative because the P/E ratio of semiconductor giants is generally lower than 50, and the lower the assumed target P/E ratio, the higher the required EPS growth rate.

Based on the above assumptions-50% annualized growth rate for Nvidia's stock price in the next five years and a P/E ratio of 50-Hulbert calculates that Nvidia's earnings per share (EPS) need to grow at a rate of 70% per year to sustain its strong growth momentum in stock price, which is more than twice the 30% predicted by Wall Street analysts.

If Nvidia's EPS grows at a rate of 30%, the annualized growth rate of its stock price will only be 15.2%, which is also lower than the expectations of most investors.

Benefiting from the trend of AI, Nvidia's stock price surged 180% in the past year, and its market cap once reached $2.8 trillion, just a step away from exceeding$Apple (AAPL.US)$it. However, if future earnings growth falls short of investors' expectations, Nvidia's stock price may fall.

Qualcomm is a warning from the past.

$Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$The stock price once soared 26 times in 1999 and was the center of attention, but its performance afterwards was disappointing.

Research by Research Affiliates shows that from 1999 to the end of 2022, its annualized ROI is only 2.8%, less than half of the ROI.$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$Half of the ROI.

During this period of 23 years, Qualcomm's sales and EPS compound annual growth rates were 14% and 19%, respectively. Furthermore, the current profit is 60 times that of the 2000 high point.

How could a stock with "amazing" sales and profit growth fall behind the market by so much?

According to Research Affiliates' research, the answer is: "The good news has been completely reflected in the stock price!"

Will Nvidia repeat Qualcomm's mistake?

A study has found that it is very rare for a company's profits to continuously grow at a rate higher than the median for several years. Note that the threshold for exceeding the median is much lower than a 30% annual growth rate (according to probability theory, half of the companies can beat the median profit randomly).

This study, titled "Level and Persistence of Growth," was published twenty years ago, and was jointly completed by the University of Illinois and LSV Asset Management. The researchers analyzed all US listed stocks since the 1950s, and found that there were not many companies that crossed the median threshold. Twenty years later, a study by Verdad Research came to the same conclusion.

This means that the probability of Nvidia's profits maintaining the recent growth rate is no higher than flipping a coin. Hulbert wrote that even if Nvidia could beat the probability, the stock price is unlikely to continue to rise at the recent astonishing rate.

Editor / jayden

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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