Zhī tōng cái jīng APP learned that BOC International Securities released a research report indicating that in shipping, the scarcity of supply and demand and the red sea crisis jointly promote the growth of shipping prices, and the increase in shipping capacity caused by new ship deliveries is marginally offset. In aviation, domestic airline fuel surcharges have been lowered for the second time this year. In April, the demand for air cargo increased by 11.1% year-on-year as marine transportation capacity was restricted. In express logistics, "two-wheel drive" and "service improvement" are working together. By April, China's express business volume had exceeded 50 billion pieces.
The bank recommends focusing on the export chain of equipment and manufacturing industrial products, and recommends COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers (600428.SH), China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872.SH), CTS International Logistics Corporation (603128.SH), etc. Benefiting from the supply chain of bulk commodity and dangerous goods logistics in the industrial economy recovery, Xiamen Xiangyu (600057.SH), Xiamen ITG Group Corp.,Ltd. (600755.SH), etc. are recommended. Focus on investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy track trend, with SF Holding (002352.SZ) recommended. It is suggested to pay attention to the theme investment opportunities of cruise ships and water ferries.
BOC International Securities' core viewpoints are as follows:
1. The scarcity of supply and demand and the red sea crisis jointly promote the growth of shipping prices, and the increase in shipping capacity caused by new ship deliveries is marginally offset.
According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on May 17th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reported 2,520.76, an increase of nearly 30% compared to April 26th. As of May 30th, the average comprehensive index for 2024 was $3,323/FEU, which is $598 higher than the average freight rate level over the past 10 years. Some shipping routes are experiencing a "difficult to find a container" situation. What was originally a slow season for the shipping market has ushered in a "price hike" trend. Overall, the reason is that the improvement of import and export trade has helped the rise of shipping demand, and on the other hand, the absorption of new capacity by the red sea situation has marginally offset the increase in shipping capacity caused by new ship deliveries.
2. Domestic airline fuel surcharges have been lowered for the second time this year. In April, the demand for air cargo increased by 11.1% year-on-year as marine transportation capacity was restricted.
On May 24th, according to a report from the Qunar platform, Hebei Airlines will lower its fuel surcharge. From June 5, 2024 (ticket date), for adult passengers on routes longer than 800 kilometers, a fuel surcharge of 50 yuan per passenger will be collected; for routes less than 800 kilometers, a fuel surcharge of 30 yuan per passenger will be collected. In April, the global demand for air cargo remained strong. Compared with the level in April 2023, the total demand measured in cargo ton kilometers (CTK) increased by 11.1%. Due to fluctuations in oil prices, domestic airline fuel surcharges have been lowered for the second time this year. Starting from 2022, airlines will resume charging fuel surcharges for domestic routes and will continue to increase them. This adjustment is the second fuel surcharge reduction this year. The future of air cargo demand looks good, supported by cross-border e-commerce and the limited global shipping capacity.
3. "Two-wheel drive" and "service improvement" are working together. By April, China's express business volume had exceeded 50 billion pieces.
On May 21st, according to monitoring data from the State Post Bureau, as of April 29th this year, China's express business volume had exceeded 50 billion pieces, 32 days ahead of 2023. "Two-wheel drive" and "service improvement" supported the continuous growth of China's express business. The continuous development of e-commerce and the emergence of new business drives the development of the express industry. From January to April this year, the national online retail sales amounted to 4411 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods amounted to 3735.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, accounting for 23.9% of the total retail sales of consumer goods. Among the online retail sales of physical goods, the sales of food, clothing, and daily necessities increased by 19.2%, 10.5%, and 9.8%, respectively. Express companies are improving their services. Taking price increases to ensure quality as an example, the new competitive strategy has achieved good economic benefits. In April of this year, the express service quality index increased by 15.5% year-on-year.
Tracking of industry high-frequency dynamic data:
1. Air transportation: From late April to early May, air transportation prices increased overall compared to the previous period. 2. Shipping ports: The shipping price index has increased, and the dry bulk cargo transportation price has risen. 3. Express logistics: In April, express business volume increased by 22.70% year-on-year, and express business revenue increased by 18.33% year-on-year. 4. Air travel: In the third week of May 2024, the average daily international flights increased by 0.26% compared to the previous month, and increased by 93.32% year-on-year. 5. Road and rail: From May 13th to May 19th, the total number of trucks passing through the national highway was 55.28 million, an increase of 0.44% compared to the previous period. 6. New forms of transportation business: In April 2024, Li Auto delivered approximately 25,787 new cars, an increase of 0.41% year-on-year.
Investment advice:
Recommend focusing on the equipment and manufacturing industry's industrial product export chain, and recommend Sinotrans Limited, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and CTS International Logistics Corporation. Also recommend paying attention to Eastern Air Logistics, and China National Aviation Holding. Suggest focusing on the commodity supply chain and hazardous chemical logistics that benefit from the recovery of the industrial economy, and recommend Xiamen Xiangyu, Xiamen ITG Group Corp.,Ltd., and Zheshang Development Group, Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service, Shenghang Shipping and Xing Tong Shareholding, and Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics, etc. Pay attention to the trend of low-altitude economy theme investment opportunities. Recommend investing in SF Holding Co., Ltd., and suggest paying attention to CITIC Offshore Helicopter Co., Ltd. Focus on investment opportunities in cruise and ferry business, and suggest paying attention to Bohai Ferry Group and Hainan Strait Shipping. Pay attention to the investment opportunities in e-commerce express delivery, and recommend ZTO Express, STO Express Co.,Ltd., and Yunda Holding.
Risk warning:
Risks from significant fluctuations in shipping prices, unmet demand for air transportation, intensified competition in express delivery prices, and changes in transportation policies.