Zhitong Finance APP learned that GF Securities released research reports, stating that under the drive of the improvement of shipowner's profit center, the gradual digestion of stage excess capacity, the imbalance of ship type and shipowner's order structure, and the driving force of environmental protection and power, the second wave of container ship orders may come, and it is expected to form a situation of resonance with the three main orders of oil ****rs and bulk carriers, and the shipbuilding industry has long-term and sufficient upward momentum. Continue to recommend China Shipbuilding Industry (600150.SH), China Industry Group Power (600482.SH), and CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering (600685.SH, 00317); recommend paying attention to China Shipbuilding Industry (601989.SH), Asian Star Anchor Chain (601890.SH), Neway Valve (603699.SH), and Hangzhou Advance Gearbox Group (601177.SH).
GF Securities' main points are as follows:
The downstream shipping prosperity is higher than expected, and the joint transportation prices have risen sharply under the drive of multiple factors, promoting the improvement of shipowner's profit center. GF Securities pointed out that due to the Red Sea crisis and geopolitical conflicts causing ships to circumnavigate, resulting in the tightness of effective capacity, and the growth of terminal demand bringing about an increase in shipping volume, the joint transportation prices have continued to rise recently, driving the improvement of shipowner's profit and balance sheets. According to the official websites of various companies, the first-quarter 24Q1 performances of many global leading container shipowners have significantly improved, with revenue growth rates of 5%-20% and profit turnarounds on a month-on-month basis. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have raised the lower limit of their full-year profit forecast.
Container shipowners have recently been active in inquiries and orders, and new and used ship prices have risen. Under the adjustment of the expectation of the recovery of downstream prosperity and the improvement of their own profit center, many container shipowners have been actively inquiring recently. According to Shipbuilders Global, it is expected that there will be more than 50 new container ships with a total value of approximately US$7.5 billion will be ordered in the next few months.
As the decision-making cycle of container shipowners is longer, the current order decision-making has entered a new stage, and the order motivation comes from the resonance of four factors from a long-term perspective: First, the excess capacity is expected to be digested by 2027-2028, matching the shipowner's decision-making cycle; second, the order structure of shipowners in the last round of order tide was unbalanced, with the head shipowners holding a higher proportion of orders, while small and medium-sized shipowners basically match the proportion of old ships. In this round of new order cycle, small and medium-sized shipowners are more active; third, the ship type structure of the last order tide was imbalanced, and the difference in the proportion of orders of different sizes of ships was significant. Supporting demand for small and medium-sized ships, such as branch line ships from head shipowners, is expected to rise; Fourth, the space for environmental protection + old-age replacement demand is large, and in 2025, there may be a situation where the supply of shipping capacity is lower than the real demand (trade growth rate + D/E rating ship proportion growth rate + aging ship proportion growth rate).
Chinese shipyards have made significant efforts in the container ship type and will become the biggest winner in this round of second wave of container orders. According to Clarksons, since 2024, all container ship orders have been contracted by Chinese shipyards, while Korean shipbuilders have significantly turned their order-taking strategy to gas ships. Since this year, the new order structure mainly includes LNG ships, VLACs, VLGCs, as well as some ****rs and chemical ships. The core beneficiaries of this round of second wave of container orders are Chinese shipyards.
Risk warning: the risk of changes in the macroeconomic environment; the risk of changes in industry policies; the risk that new technology upgrades may not be replaced as expected; the risk of further escalation of the US 301 investigation.