高盛:2030年全球LNG供应量料增长80% 美国和卡塔尔领跑

Goldman Sachs: Global LNG supply is expected to increase 80% in 2030, the US and Qatar lead ·  Jun 3 14:16

① The Goldman Sachs report shows that, driven by new construction projects in Qatar and North America, global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply will surge 80% by 2030; ② The global oil and gas industry is undergoing a major transformation, preparing to cope with the long-term decline in crude oil demand and rising demand for natural gas.

Finance Association, June 3 (Editor Li Lin/Intern Editor Jin Jie) Goldman Sachs reports that global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply will surge 80% by 2030, driven by new construction projects in Qatar and North America.

Goldman Sachs Group said in its latest report that strong growth in LNG supply will end the energy crisis that occurred after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Global investment in LNG is expected to increase by more than 50% by 2029.

Michele Della Vigna, head of natural resources research at Goldman Sachs Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), said: “US LNG will dominate the future supply market, and we believe the increase in LNG production capacity will help lower gas prices in Europe and Asia.”

According to the data, the US exported 91.2 million tons of LNG in 2023, becoming the world's largest LNG exporter for the first time, followed by Australia, followed by Qatar, which is the largest supplier of LNG in 2022.

The increase in US LNG production last year can be attributed to the restart of the Texas Freeport LNG plant, which shut down for several months after a fire and explosion in June 2022.

In addition, the US will also put into operation two important new LNG projects this year, namely US liquefied natural gas exporter Venture Global LNG's Plaquemine plant in Louisiana and the Golden Pass plant in Texas, which was established as a joint venture between ExxonMobil and Qatar Energy.

If operating at full capacity, these two projects will increase US LNG production by 38 million tons per year.

Qatar's LNG production is also gradually rising. In February of this year, Qatar Energy CEO Saad Kaby announced the expansion of liquefied natural gas production in the Northern Gas Field. The current production capacity will increase by another 16 million tons each year, and the total output is expected to reach 142 million tons per year after completion.

The Northern Gas Field is the largest gas field in the world and is estimated to hold 10% of the world's LNG reserves.

Demand for LNG continues to grow

Goldman Sachs analysis further indicates that the global oil and gas industry is undergoing a major transformation, preparing to cope with a long-term decline in crude oil demand and a rise in natural gas demand.

The report shows that from 2020 to 2023, the annual growth rate of capital expenditure in the oil and gas industry is about 11%, but it is likely to stabilize from 2023 to 2026, with an annual growth rate of about 4%.

The analysis shows that OPEC is likely to maintain its current production discipline in the next few years.

Goldman Sachs added that in the next two or three years, OPEC has little chance of increasing production capacity without alarming the market. Oil production in non-OPEC countries will peak this year, then OPEC may begin to increase its market share as oil production cuts gradually relax.

At the OPEC+ organizational meeting that just ended over the weekend, member states agreed to extend collective production reduction measures until 2025, and also extend partial voluntary production reduction agreements until September of this year. OPEC+ member countries are currently cutting production by 5.86 million barrels per day, accounting for about 5.7% of global demand.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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