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金种子酒(600199):经营状态逐步改善 金种子扬帆起航

Golden Seed Liquor (600199): Business conditions gradually improved, and Golden Seed set sail

華鑫證券 ·  Jun 3

On May 28, 2024, Golden Seed Liquor held the company's 2023 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders.

Key points of investment

“6+3+2”, the company's 2024 growth strategy is progressing steadily

The company's core strategy for 2024 can be summarized as “6+3+2”, that is, ① focusing on 6 core products: highlighting Fuhexiang 9+7 and cultivating Fuhexiang 20; the light bottle highlights the number one seed+Tegon to transform the Xiang He Restaurant version of the light bottle; the chassis box focuses on Soft + Gold 6 to cultivate Master Yue. ② Play 3 battles well: fight a good offensive battle to achieve in-depth cooperation with 10,000 TOP tobacco hotels; fight a good position battle to achieve 60,000 light bottle cooperation among restaurants; fight a blasting battle to achieve the Soft Series as the number one mainstream wine product in Anhui.

③ Focus on 2 grippers: that is, focus on channel scale and channel quality at the same time to enhance the company's market competitiveness.

Strengthen the chassis, expand Fuhexiang, improve quality and efficiency, and create Huihuang Company continues to build its core competitiveness, give full play to the company's technical advantages, fragrance category advantages and quality advantages, and strengthen the chassis, expand Fuhexiang, improve quality and efficiency, and innovate and brilliant as future development strategies. On the product side, the company focuses on building core products, that is, focusing on Fuhexiang and chassis products; on the market side, the focus is on turning Fuyang, where the company is located, into a core base market, and Anhui's market share is steadily rising; and on the channel side, growing together with dealers to cultivate high-quality strategic partners.

Profit forecasting

After entering China Resources, China Resources made positive changes and adjustments to the company's management, channels, and product systems. In the short term, there was some friction at the management level, and brand cultivation still needed time to accumulate; in the long run, China Resources's market-based assessment mechanism was improved and the management team had strong learning and correction capabilities, and the overall development direction was positive. We are still optimistic that China Resources's entry will boost the company's strength. We expect the company to reverse losses in 2024. We expect the company's 2024-2026 EPS to be 0.08/0.47/0.92 yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponding to 2024-2026 PE is 177/31/16 times, maintaining a “buy” investment rating.

Risk warning

Downside macroeconomic risks, China Resources's empowerment situation falls short of expectations, and the pace of channel development and brand cultivation falls short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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