Gelonghui, June 3 | China Merchants Securities published a research report saying that since the second quarter of this year, the cost of some raw materials in the beverage industry has fluctuated. Among them, palm oil prices and aluminum prices have increased by an average of 8.6% and 8.4% year-on-year, while the corrugated paper, raw milk, PET plastic and glass indices have declined by 11.9%, 12.1%, 1.4%, and 10%, respectively. Aluminum prices have increased by more than 10% during the year, reaching a high level of the past two years. The main reason is that the supply of Rio Tinto, the world's second-largest mining company, is limited. Considering that Rio Tinto only expects mining volume to return to normal levels in the second half of this year, China Merchants Securities predicts that aluminum prices will probably remain high for at least another month. However, since beer companies usually enter into fixed price contracts, it is estimated that the short-term rise in aluminum spot prices will not have an impact on beer companies' gross margins. China Resources Brewery, Tongyi, and Master Kong are preferred by the industry. Currently, the bank predicts that Budweiser Asia Pacific's gross margin for the 2024 fiscal year will increase 0.3 percentage points to 50.7% year-on-year, with a target price of HK$13.1, with a rating of “increase”; while Runbeer is expected to increase by 1 percentage point to 42.4%, the market share of the Heineken brand is expected to increase. The target price is HK$45.4, and the rating is also “increase in holdings”. Given that gross margin growth is likely to be better than expected, the bank maintained the “gain” ratings for Master Kong and the unified, with target prices of HK$10.3 and HK$8.6, respectively. As for dairy stocks, the bank expects Mengniu's gross margin to remain flat and maintain a “neutral” rating under the influence of the sales structure.