Incidents:
On June 1, 2024, Ideal Auto announced delivery data for May 2024. In May 2024, Ideal Auto delivered 35,020 new vehicles, an increase of 23.8% year over year.
After L6's launch, sales volume improved, and sales potential increased steadily
In May 2024, Ideal Auto delivered 35,000 new vehicles, an increase of 23.8% over the previous year. As of May 31, 2024, a total of 775,000 Ideal Cars have been delivered. Delivery data for the Ideal L6 continued to climb after launch. Since delivery began on April 24, more than 15,000 vehicles have been delivered. Benefiting from the sales momentum driven by the launch of the L6, sales volume of L series models increased significantly. From June 1 to June 30, it is ideal to start purchasing cars with no down payment for a limited time. The reduction in car purchase costs is expected to expand the customer base, and sales are expected to increase.
Intelligent acceleration. Ideal is the first AI smart cockpit Class A certification. In May 2024, Ideal L9 Ultra participated in the AI cockpit certification of China Testing and Certification Group and China Automobile Research, and became the first Class A certification. The inspection certification is the Tongji University Human-Vehicle Relations Laboratory (HVRLab) and China Automobile Research Institute to jointly develop the “AI Smart Cockpit Capability Certification Test and Evaluation Specification” system.
The ideal self-developed Mind GPT is a large multi-modal cognitive model. It has the ability to understand, generate, memorize knowledge, and reason, and can deepen functions for key scenarios. Ideal Student's functional satisfaction rating is 8.59, and the functionality fully satisfies user use. AI empowers smart cockpits and is expected to continuously optimize the cockpit experience.
Ecology continues to expand, overcharging+service continues to improve
The service and charging ecosystem continue to be upgraded. As of May 31, 2024, Ideal Auto has 487 retail centers across the country, covering 144 cities; 374 after-sales maintenance centers and authorized sheet spray centers, covering 214 cities. Ideal Auto has put into use 426 ideal overcharging stations across the country, and has 1,888 charging stations. Continued deepening at the lower city level is expected to further complement the service ecosystem network.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 1555/2317/314.2 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.5%/49.1%/35.6%, net profit to mother of 108.1/178.6/29.25 billion yuan respectively, year-on-year growth rates of -7.6%/65.2%/63.7%, EPS of 5.09/8.42/13.78 yuan/share, respectively, and a 3-year CAGR of 35.7%. In view of the continuous improvement of the company's product strength, the gradual improvement of the product matrix and energy type, and the steady increase in the level of intelligence, sales are expected to be realized. Continued attention is recommended.
Risk warning: Downstream consumer demand falls short of expectations; industry competition increases risk; risk of rising raw material prices; intelligent functions and progress fall short of expectations.