An established leader in photovoltaics, a leader in new technology. GCL Technology was founded in 2006 and listed in Hong Kong in 2007. The company is the world's leading developer and manufacturer of high-efficiency photovoltaic materials. It has always maintained its position as a technology driver in the polysilicon industry. It has silane fluidized bed (FBR) granular silicon technology with independent intellectual property rights, and has multiple advantages such as low cost, high quality and low carbon footprint. In 2023, GCL Technology bid farewell to Siemens polysilicon production capacity and focus on the multi-wheel drive path of low-carbon core products represented by granular silica+green hard core technology matrix represented by perovskite, CCZ, etc.
Granular silicon: Advanced production capacity is steadily increasing, and product quality is constantly improving. In '23, the company's production capacity at its four major bases in Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia and Sichuan reached 420,000 tons. By the end of '24, GCL's granular silicon production capacity will increase to 500,000 tons. In the first quarter of '24, the turbidity level of granular silicon was basically reduced to less than 120 NTU, and the proportion of products with a turbidity level of granular silicon lower than 100 NTU was as high as 75%, which will be further reduced in the future. The proportion of products with 5 elements of granular silicon with total metal impurities ≤ 0.5 ppbw exceeds 90%, while the proportion of products with 18 element total metal impurities ≤ 1 ppbw exceeds 60%. The level of metal impurity control may be further improved. In 23Q4, the average production cost of granular silicon at the Xinyuan base was less than 35.9 yuan/kg.
CCz: Collaborate with the development of granular silicon to reduce the cost of non-silicon pultrations. According to Wang Zheng Sheng et al. “Growth Principles, Processes, and Prospects of Direct Drawing Monocrystalline Silicon”, CCz uses a special direct-pull monocrystalline furnace, which can perform single crystal drawing while feeding and melting, requiring that the silicon raw material be high quality granular silicon. The crystal bars produced by this process are of high quality, uniform resistivity distribution, and narrower range, which is conducive to increasing the output of high-power components. According to the 23rd annual report, in 2023, GCL Technology's CCz technology made a major breakthrough in the application of continuous direct drawing single crystal furnace equipment for the production of large diameter silicon rods. At present, CCZ has achieved an average life expectancy of N-type crystal rod heads and oxygen content close to the RCZ pull-crystal process level during the same period, which is conducive to further reducing the cost of drawing silicon at the crystal end and promoting automation and intelligence in the photovoltaic industry.
Perovskite: Promoting the implementation of GW grade production capacity, leading the industry in terms of efficiency and size. According to Kunshan GCL Optoelectronics's WeChat account, on December 27, '23, GCL Optoelectronics held a groundbreaking ceremony for the world's first gigawatt-scale (2.4 m x 1.2 m) perovskite production base. According to the agreement, the company will build a 2GW grade perovskite production line in Kunshan, which will be completed in two phases. On April 8, '24, the efficiency and size of the company's laminated components once again broke the world record, achieving a steady-state efficiency of 26.36% under 1.71 **** meters.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. In 2024-2026, we expect the company's net assets per share to be 1.62/1.67/1.76, respectively, and the corresponding PB is 0.83, 0.80, and 0.76 times, respectively. Referring to the average PB of comparable companies, we gave the company 0.9-1.0 times PB for 24 years, with a corresponding reasonable value range of HK$1.58-1.76 (converted at the exchange rate of HK$1 = RMB 0.92), which for the first time covered the “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: Industry demand is declining, competition is intensifying, and new technology expansion falls short of expectations.